TAICHUNG KMT MAYOR JASON HU ON MA YING-JEOU,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001069

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAICHUNG KMT MAYOR JASON HU ON MA YING-JEOU,
PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu told the Director
on May 10 that the outcome of the 2008 presidential race is
"very much uncertain," but KMT presidential nominee Ma
Ying-jeou would still probably win, despite his legal
difficulties. Hu predicted DPP presidential nominee Frank
Hsieh will run a dirty campaign, but has his own scandals to
worry about. Ma missed an opportunity to show "guts" by
rejecting the PFP's attempt to blackmail the KMT, and could
do better at using the press to build voter support. Ma and
presidential rival Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng are
getting along better than most believe, and even if Wang
doesn't accept the vice presidential nomination, he won't
break from the party. End Summary.


2. (C) Mayor Hu told the Director that "everyone" in Taiwan,
including President Chen, had been surprised by former
Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh Chang-ting's defeat of Premier Su
Tseng-chang in the DPP's May 6 presidential primary. Hsieh's

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unexpectedly strong showing, he continued, made the outcome
of next year's presidential race "very much uncertain." The
DPP leadership would like Hsieh to choose Su as his vice
presidential running mate, Hu said, because Su will bring the
support of the Cabinet with him. The KMT, he noted, hopes
Hsieh will choose former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan,
because she would bring less to the ticket. While Yeh is an
ethnic Hakka, Hu explained, she won't be able to draw too
many votes from the traditionally deep-Blue Hakka population.



3. (C) Regardless of who his running mate is, Hu told the
Director, Hsieh will run a dirty campaign, because that
strategy worked well for him in the 2002 Kaohsiung mayoral
race against current KMT Secretary General Wu Den-yih. The
KMT, in turn, will try to batter Hsieh with his widely
suspected involvement in the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit
Corporation scandal and the ongoing corruption investigations
against him. Hsieh is also vulnerable, Hu argued, because he
did very little to help Kaohsiung economically but
substantially increased the city's debt burden.


4. (C) Having just won the DPP nomination, Hsieh is at the
height of his popularity, and is attracting large numbers of
endorsements. KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou hasn't
gotten this bounce yet, Hu argued, because he won't receive
the KMT's formal nomination until mid-June. If he had to
predict the winner at this early stage, Hu said he would
still bet on Ma. At the same time, Hu was gently critical of
Ma's presidential campaign, grumbling that Ma is doing too
little to attract the press attention he needs to build
support. Referring to Ma's current bike ride around Taiwan,
Hu grumbled that Ma was finally doing something "slightly
more creative" than shaking hands with voters.


5. (C) Mayor Hu was also critical of Ma for giving in to
"blackmail" from James Soong's moribund People First Party
(PFP). (Note: The KMT Central Standing Committee (CSC)
recently ratified a decision reserving four districts and
three at-large nominations for PFP candidates in this
December's Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, in exchange for
continued PFP cooperation in the LY. End note.) Ma could
have displayed "guts" by rejecting PFP blackmail, but instead
looked weak for giving in, complained Hu. As for the CSC, it
"completely ignored" local KMT leaders' advice on the
viability of PFP candidates in their districts. Hu said he
had threatened to go public with his criticism of the CSC if
it continued to disrespect local leaders' wisdom on
nominations.


6. (C) The Director asked Hu whether KMT LY Speaker Wang
Jin-pyng would ultimately agree to serve as Ma's vice
presidential running mate. Hu responded that it is an open
secret that Wang wants to replace Ma as the KMT's

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presidential candidate, and is hoping that a corruption
conviction will force Ma out of the race. Wang has never
said publicly that he wants to be Vice President, Hu
continued, in order to keep his options open as long as
possible. Even if he doesn't accept the vice presidential
nomination, Hu predicted, Wang won't break from the KMT. Hu
recounted for the Director a dinner he recently hosted for

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Ma, Wang, and others at his residence in Taichung. Ma and
Wang were originally scheduled to arrive at separate times.
Hu protested, arguing that their separate arrivals would
inconvenience event organizers and press at an event after
the dinner. Both Ma and Wang agreed to arrive at the same
time. Without going into detail, Hu told the Director that
Wang's remarks during dinner "convinced" him that Wang would
not run as an independent. Subsequently, Wang invited Ma to
attend a concert in Taichung, which, according to Hu,
suggests Wang does not seek to avoid Ma as much as press
reports would suggest.


7. (C) Hu said both the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green were treating
Ma's ongoing corruption case as a "hot potato." DPP leaders
remember that Ma's popularity reached its recent peak right
after he was indicted. If Ma is convicted, voters could
perceive him as a victim of a politically motivated
prosecution, driving his popularity rates even higher. On
the other hand, Hu continued, a severe sentence could weaken
Ma or even force him from the race, virtually ending the
KMT's hopes of regaining the presidency. No one can predict
how the case will turn out, Hu added, or how it will impact
Ma.


8. (C) Jason Hu is one of Ma's longtime supporters, so his
frustration over the KMT standard-bearer is of particular
note. So is his complaint from the provinces that the party
center was steamrolling local concerns as it selects LY
candidates. None of which speaks well for KMT unity as they
approach key elections this winter.
YOUNG