DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TO COMPETE FOR PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001017

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TO COMPETE FOR PARTY
MEMBER VOTES IN MAY 6 PRIMARY


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In the first step of a two-stage primary
process, DPP party members will vote on Sunday May 6 for
their choices for presidential and legislative candidates.
The party member vote, weighted 30 percent, will be followed
by a public opinion poll on May 9-11, weighted 70 percent,
and the combined results will determine the DPP's
presidential candidate, who will be announced on May 12.
Premier Su Tseng-chang is expected to win the party member
vote on Sunday and is slightly favored by many observers here
to win the overall battle against former Premier Frank Hsieh
for the DPP presidential nomination. If Su does not beat
Hsieh by a wide margin on Sunday, however, Hsieh will have a
chance to take the DPP nomination. End Summary.


2. (U) DPP party members head to party polling stations this
Sunday, May 6, to cast primary ballots for one of four
presidential candidates and for legislative candidates, Of
the approximately 250,000 party members eligible to vote in
the DPP primary election this Sunday, about 150-180,000 party
members are expected to cast ballots for a turnout rate of
60-70 percent. The party member vote, which is the first of
two stages in the DPP primary, will count for 30 percent in
selecting the DPP presidential nominee. The results of the
May 6 party member vote will be announced immediately. The
second stage of the DPP primary will be a public opinion
poll, which counts 70 percent in determining the presidential
candidate. The DPP's presidential public opinion polling
will be carried out May 9-11, and the party will announce its
presidential nominee on May 12.


3. (C) Premier Su Tseng-chang, former Premier Frank Hsieh,
DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, and Vice President Annette Lu are
competing for the DPP presidential nomination. While Su and
Hsieh are the clear frontrunners in the overall primary
contest (party member vote plus public opinion poll),Yu
along with Su and Hsieh could do well in Sunday's party
member vote. The voting results depend largely on the
alignment of DPP factions and local party leaders, who
mobilize and direct their constituents in how to vote. While
there have been debates over ideology and platform issue in
the primary campaign, the real contest both at local and
central levels is over the division of political power among
the various DPP factions. In Sunday's party member vote, VP
Lu is almost certain to come in a distant fourth because she
has not cultivated support from party factions or local party
leaders. By contrast, Su, Hsieh, and Yu each have support
bases. Yu is concerned, however, that some or even many
supporters may desert him at the last minute in an effort to
bandwagon with a winning candidate, i.e., Hsieh or Su.


4. (C) A number of AIT contacts and political observers
estimate that Su will win the party member vote by a margin
over Hsieh ranging from 10,000 - 30,000 votes. Yu could come
in second in the party member vote if his supporters do not
dump him. Su's margin over Hsieh on Sunday is key because
most polls (except those from the Su camp) predict Hsieh will
win the subsequent public opinion polling portion of the
primary by a narrow margin. If Su defeats Hsieh on Sunday by
30,000 votes, analysts here believe Su will be the DPP
candidate. If Su's margin of victory over Hsieh falls to
15,000 or less, then Hsieh will have a chance to become the
party's candidate after the public opinion poll results are
factored in. Recent polling numbers for Lu and especially
for Yu are considerably lower than for Hsieh and Su.


5. (C) Many of AIT's contacts are predicting Su Tseng-chang
will win the DPP presidential nomination. In addition to the
balance of support by factions and local leaders, which
favors Su, they also point to two other important factors.
First, although President Chen has not publicly endorsed a
candidate, the perception is pervasive here that Chen in fact
supports Su. Chen's first calculation, one contact
explained, is that the party must nominate a candidate who
can win the presidential election. Chen's second calculation
is to have a candidate who supports (and will protect) him.
From Chen's perspective, long-time rival Frank Hsieh, who
distanced himself from the President during Hsieh's Taipei

TAIPEI 00001017 002 OF 002


mayoral campaign last year, is less reliable than Su
Tseng-chang. President Chen will be speaking to the party

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faithful and the general public in a two-hour televised
interview on May 4, but he is not expected to single out one
of the candidates for endorsement.


6. (C) Second, our contacts say, Su Tseng-chang (so far)
does not have the kind of legal questions that are swirling
around Hsieh over possible corruption during his tenure as
Kaohsiung mayor. In other words, Su does not have Hsieh's
vulnerability on the integrity issue and therefore will be
more strongly positioned to do battle against KMT candidate
Ma Ying-jeou. The publication this week in an expose
magazine of a prosecutor's confidential document accusing
Hsieh of corruption will only increase concerns about Hsieh's
viability as the DPP's presidential candidate.


7. (C) While most attention Sunday will focus on the
presidential primary, the fortunes of a number of
reform-minded legislators will be a significant gauge of
trends within the party. A number of reformers, who are
associated with Premier Su, have been strongly attacked and
labeled as the "eleven bandits" by Deep Green independence
fundamentalists. Eight of the "11 bandits" plus several
other reformers will be running in primary contests on
Sunday. If reform candidates do relatively well despite the
Deep Green attacks, that will be a sign that moderation and
pragmatism, including toward cross-Strait economic relations,
will continue to be an important force within the party.

Comment
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8. (C) The DPP's presidential primary campaign has generated
considerable heat, with candidates attacking each other and
competing over ideological positions on the independence
issue. The party will be quite happy to put the primary
competition behind it and turn to the tasks of restoring
party unity and preparing for the real battle against KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou in the presidential election, which
will be held in March or possibly January, 2008. Su and
Hsieh are both generally considered to be relatively
moderate, pragmatic and cautious, a positive sign for the
future of U.S.-Taiwan and cross-Strait relations.

YOUNG