TAOYUAN AND HSINCHU COUNTIES: DPP CAN'T COMPETE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001015

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAOYUAN AND HSINCHU COUNTIES: DPP CAN'T COMPETE


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Local KMT party officials expect to win 6 or
even 7 of the 8 legislative seats up for election this
December in Taoyuan County, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City,
which account for over ten percent of Taiwan's population.
KMT officials attribute their likely success to the high
concentration of Hakka, Mainlander, and aboriginal voters in
this part of northern Taiwan. DPP opponents grudgingly
acknowledge their demographic disadvantage, but accuse the
KMT of buying votes to assure their victory. End Summary.

Population Favors KMT
--------------


2. (C) Taoyuan County government Secretary General Liu
Chih-ching (KMT) told AIT that the KMT enjoys a significant
demographic advantage in Taoyuan County and the separate
districts of Hsinchu City and Hsinchu County. Liu explained
that 80 percent of the population in Hsinchu City and County
are ethnic Hakka. In past elections, 70 percent of the Hakka
voted for KMT candidates. In Taoyuan, 36 percent of the
population is ethnic Taiwanese, half of whom support the KMT,
and half the DPP. Of the remaining population, a third is
Hakka, 23 percent Mainlanders, and 7 percent aboriginals.
All three groups traditionally support the KMT. Of the 8
legislative districts up for grabs in these three districts,
KMT party officials expect to win 6 or even 7 of them, Liu
said. KMT Taoyuan County Chairman Fu Chung-hsiung argued the
KMT's chances are helped further by the failure of President
Chen's DPP government to implement any significant public
works projects in the area over the past six years of his
administration.

Taoyuan County: DPP Can't Compete
--------------


3. (C) The reforms which cut the Legislative Yuan (LY) in
half (from 225 to 113 seats) have also reduced the number of
available legislative seats in Taoyuan County from 13 to 6.
Taoyuan County has been broken up into six smaller districts,
which elect one legislator each. According to KMT County
Chairman Fu, the KMT has nine candidates, six of them
incumbent legislators, competing for nominations in five of
Taoyuan's six districts. No KMT candidate has stepped
forward in District 2, Lu said, because it is considered a
DPP stronghold, that party's only chance for victory in
Taoyuan. Fu remarked that although the KMT primary races in
Taoyuan have been hotly contested, he does not expect the
losers to run as independent candidates because most of them
know they would have little chance of winning, and the party
is prepared to offer them county government jobs to secure
their cooperation. If all goes according to plan, Fu said,
the KMT will win 4 or 5 of the 6 available seats in Taoyuan
County.


4. (C) DPP prospects in Taoyuan are poor. Sec-Gen Liu told
AIT that, as of April 25, the DPP was conducting primaries in
only two of the six districts, and an unopposed TSU candidate
is representing the Pan-Green in a third. According to DPP
Hsinchu County Executive Director Chen Tsung-li, in one
deep-Blue district with virtually no chance of DPP victory,
the DPP may be forced to "recruit" a candidate to represent
the party for appearances' sake. The DPP may also call upon
losers from the two primary races to represent the DPP in
those two districts otherwise without DPP candidates.

Hsinchu City and County: Conservative Core
--------------


5. (C) Under the old legislative system, Hsinchu City and
Hsinchu County elected three legislators each. Under the new
system, however, they only elect one legislator each.
Hsinchu DPP Director Chen told AIT that 58 percent of voters
in Hsinchu City and County support the KMT, and 42 percent
back the DPP. Chen lamented that politically conservative
military personnel and civil servants make up a large part of
Hsinchu's voting population, and that these groups, which
typically back the KMT, are slow to change their political
preferences. Chen argued that the DPP's only chance of

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winning in Hsinchu (and Taoyuan) is if DPP candidates succeed
in buying more votes than their KMT opponents. (Note: There
is a chance the pan-Blue vote could split in Hsinchu City,
increasing the chance of a DPP victory. KMT legislator Lu
Hsueh-chang defeated KMT legislator Ko Chun-hsiung in the
Hsinchu City KMT primary. Ko has refused to accept the
outcome has threatened to run as an independent candidate.
End Comment.)

Vote Buying Boosts Turnout
--------------


6. (C) Sec-Gen Liu told AIT that vote buying is common in
Taoyuan County, especially in the rural areas. The practice
is effective, Liu continued, and has contributed to Taoyuan's
abnormally high voter turnout (80 percent or higher) during
legislative and presidential elections. In Taoyuan, Liu told
AIT, the KMT and DPP require their at-large legislative
candidates to "donate" as much as US $900,000 to the party,
the same as a district candidate would be required to
contribute. The difference is, Liu explained, at-large
candidates don't have the same advertising and other overhead
expenses as district candidates. The money is used by both
parties to buy votes. Vote-buying is even worse in southern
Taiwan, Liu insisted, where he claimed the DPP requires its
at-large candidates to donate as much as US $3 million.
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