THE BATTLE FOR PM HOWARD'S ELECTORATE

UNCLAS SYDNEY 000459 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR AS SUBJECT: THE BATTLE FOR PM HOWARD'S ELECTORATE ¶1. SUMMARY: Prime Minister Howard faces a stiff challenge for reelection in his own electorate of Bennelong, located in western Sydney. Howard has represented the constituents of Bennelong in Parliament since 1974. Changes to the electorate's boundaries over the years, however, have reduced John Howard's margin of support. In the last election, he won with only a 4.3-percent margin. Believing the seat to be vulnerable, the Labor party recruited a high-profile, nationally respected retired television news broadcaster, Maxine McKew, to run against Howard in the 2007 election. Although McKew had never lived in the electorate, her television career gave her instant name recognition and credibility. In a private meeting October 12, McKew told us voter concerns over industrial relations, climate change, education, and health will help her chances. Leaked polls to the media show McKew has earned a slight edge over Howard, but betting agencies still favor Howard to win. Nonetheless, she admits unseating a sitting Prime Minister will be extremely difficult -- it has happened only once before in Australian history. END SUMMARY. ¶2. Although the seat of Bennelong has historically been a mono-ethnic middle-class suburban neighborhood of Sydney, growing Chinese and Korean communities in the area have made the area more ethnically diverse. As many of the new migrants work in lower income jobs, McKew said she has been campaigning against Howard's pro-business industrial relations reforms to capture their votes. She said the issue resonates with older voters as well, many of whom have shared personal anecdotes with McKew of children and grandchildren who are earning fewer benefits from their jobs. McKew believes that many Bennelong voters are also attracted to the Labor party's support for more aggressive protection of the environment and opposition to nuclear energy. Most of all, McKew said voters perceive opposition leader Kevin Rudd to be a "confident, modern, 21st century" leader, and a more appealing choice to lead the nation for the next three years. Toward the end of our meeting, however, she admitted that it is hard to convince people to vote a sitting Prime Minister out of parliament. ¶3. Liberal State MP Greg Smith, who represents half of Bennelong in the state parliament, believes Howard will hold his seat. Smith told us October 18 that Howard still "gets mobbed" at local events. Howard has also stayed involved in local issues. For example, plans to redevelop a local medical center meant that a close-knit group of handicapped tenants would be dislocated and moved to disparate facilities. Howard weighed in to keep them all together, which endeared him to area residents emotionally tied to the medical center. Smith acknowledges that McKew has star quality and good name recognition, but he remains unconvinced that the Prime Minister will lose his parliamentary seat. ¶4. COMMENT: McKew is forcing Howard to campaign hard in his own electorate at the same time he is trying to claw back from a 10-point deficit nationally. Many observers believe that was an important factor behind the ALP's decision to recruit her for that seat. Many also speculate that the ALP planned to use this as her practice (but unsuccessful) campaign with an eye to running her again whenever Howard finally vacates the seat. Labor and Liberal commentators alike believe that the Liberals will lose the seat once Howard retires. This year, even in a close election and even if the Labor Party wins control of the government, Howard should hold his seat. If he does, Labor will have to compensate with a win in another electorate in order to get the 16 seats it needs to win the election. END COMMENT. FERGIN