Tonga Update: elections in 2008; reforms postponed to 2010;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000554 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID TN CH SUBJECT: Tonga Update: elections in 2008; reforms postponed to 2010; state of emergency; media constraints; China loan REF: A) SUVA 466 B) SUVA 442 C) SUVA 405 The message is sensitive but unclassified. Handle accordingly. Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The final session of Tonga's three-year Legislative Assembly concluded November 1, with elections now slated for April ¶2008. PM Sevele, as a royal appointee, will not have to face election. Pro-democracy People's Representatives, who had doggedly argued for the 2008 election to take place under reforms that would give them a majority in the assembly, denounced an Assembly decision to postpone the first post-reform election until 2010. A binding commitment to the reforms has not yet been made. The trial of five People's Representatives, charged with sedition over the November 2006 riot, has been put off until August 2008. Emergency regulations put in place after the riot have been extended for a 13th time. The Tonga Broadcasting Commission is refusing to allow programs from a prominent pro-democracy group, and government has said it will issue guidelines to government-owned media on political reporting. Tonga and China signed a USD 60 million loan agreement to fund reconstruction of the capital city's riot-damaged business district, amid worries about fiscal consequences and the possibility of increased illegal Chinese immigration. End Summary. Parliament: Final Words on Election Dates and Reforms -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The final session of Tonga's three-year Legislative Assembly resumed, and effectively closed, on October 29. Given the many weighty issues to be considered, there was considerable public and media criticism when the Assembly's opening was delayed by several days so members could attend a school anniversary celebration and then was closed by the king the day it finally re-convened. October 29 was the only day for substantive debate. The formal closing ceremony on November 1 was boycotted by five of the Assembly's seven People's Representatives as an expression of their disappointment with the king's abrupt closing of the Assembly. Public attendance at the closing, which is encouraged and facilitated by government, was markedly sparse. ¶3. (U) The Assembly on its final day returned to the issue of constitutionally mandated 2008 general elections. In the Assembly's September sitting, the People's Representatives failed by a vote of 7-15 to pass a proposal to have the 2008 poll conducted under democratic reforms proposed by a tripartite committee (reftels) or, alternatively, to have the first election under the reforms in 2009. Voting for Nobles' and People's Representatives is now scheduled for April 23 and 24, 2008, respectively, based on Tonga's existing electoral arrangements. The reform proposals, which would guarantee a People's Representative majority in the Assembly and other democratic changes, must now be finalized by the new Assembly, presumably for implementation in elections in 2010. ¶4. (U) The October 29 Assembly session also discussed the PM's contention that he and Tourism Minister Fineasi Funaki (another former People's Representative) do not need to run for re-election in 2008 because they were appointed ministers by, and serve at the pleasure of, the king. The attorney general confirmed this, much to the consternation of the sitting People's Representatives, some of whom had predicted the PM's impending defeat at the polls. Electoral Reforms: Details Still to Come -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Despite the Assembly's September endorsement of electoral reforms put forward in July by the tripartite parliamentary committee, members have still not formally voted to commit Tonga to the new system. People's Representative Clive Edwards says the lack of a formal commitment worries him, since the new government could go back on its support for the changes. Still, a spokesman from the PM's office assured us that the PM and Cabinet fully support the new division of seats between nobles' and people's representatives, a proposal for parliament to name the prime minister and most of the cabinet from its own ranks (with the king permitted to select four cabinet members),and the invocation of those reforms in 2010. ¶6. (SBU) Agreement still has to be reached on at least two other key issues: reforms to electoral constituencies and the voting system (one person, one vote; or single transferable; or preferential, etc.) The tripartite committee could not reach consensus on those matters. One knowledgeable contact noted that if the new Assembly after 2008 elections were to attempt to reverse the already agreed reforms, there would be an "enormous risk" of a popular backlash. Looking Ahead to the Elections SUVA 00000554 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶7. (SBU) People's Representative Akilisi Pohiva has told us he was frustrated by what he perceived as government backtracking in the Assembly when its representatives voted to postpone electoral reforms to the 2010 election. He claimed that government had already made up its mind last March, before the tripartite committee's discussions. Pohiva told us this week that since the closure of the Assembly, the pro-democracy camp has been holding village-level seminars on non-violent political activism, using the opportunity to discuss the reforms and to prepare the faithful for the upcoming elections. Pohiva recently told a Radio Australia reporter that the development of formal political parties like those found in other countries is now inevitable in Tonga. The Friendly Island Human Rights and Democracy Movement he heads is a registered "incorporated society" and is a political party in everything but name. Court Cases: No End in Sight -------------- ¶8. (U) The trial of five People's Representatives - including Pohiva and Edwards -- charged with sedition for their alleged role in instigating the November 2006 riot has been postponed until August ¶2008. After the court tossed out most of the original charges in September, the Crown controversially added two additional charges of abetment to a riotous assembly and abetment to the damage of buildings. The five accused have appealed that move, but the appeals court will not sit again until July. ¶9. (U) Police contacts tell us Tonga's courts have processed about half of the more than 500 persons charged with offences related to the November 2006 riot. Of about 90 people who have gone before the courts, most have been tried at the Supreme Court, resulting in fines, or verdicts of acquittal, or suspended sentences. A few prison sentences, generally in the range of three to seven years, have been handed down to those convicted of breaking into buildings or taking leading roles in the looting. The first group trial of seven persons charged with serious offenses relating to the riots ended October 30 with the acquittal of six. The seventh was convicted of "housebreaking" and has yet to be sentenced. A second group trial of seven defendants is now under way. Emergency Regulations: One Year and Counting -------------- ¶10. (U) On November 12, the government extended emergency regulations for a thirteenth month. Minister for Information Afu'alo Matoto told the media that the Police and Defense Services remain concerned about the potential for a repeat of last year's violence, though he observed that he himself doesn't think that likely. Police Minister Siaosi' Aho, meanwhile, said the shooting of a Chinese shopkeeper during a recent attempted robbery was one factor in his recommendation that the government maintain the emergency regulations. Gun crimes are rare in Tonga, and while the attack is apparently unrelated to political "unrest," the looting and violence during the riot, including against Chinese shops, remains vivid in everyone's minds. Press Freedom: Government to Issue Guidelines -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The Friendly Islands Human Rights and Democracy Movement has complained that the media regulator, the Tonga Broadcasting Commission (TBC),is barring pro-democracy programs from government-owned Television Tonga and Radio Tonga (Tonga's most widely heard broadcaster). Pohiva has complained to us bitterly about the restrictions on political speech that, he said, make reaching the voting public difficult. Pro-government programs such as those hosted by the prime minister's Reconciliation Advisor, Viliame Afeaki, and government media consultant Kalafi Moala continue to be broadcast. New Information Minister Matoto told members of the Tonga Media Council November 16 that government's on-going ban on political programs and parliamentary reports, started in June was, in fact, not a consequence of the state of emergency but because of "government's perception that reports made by Radio Tonga and Television Tonga are unbalanced." In a worrisome development, Matoto said government plans to draw up guidelines for the journalists of Radio Tonga and Television Tonga so the media can "work within the policy and set regulations in broadcasting and printing." Independent media have expressed their unease. China Loan and China Labor -------------- ¶12. (SBU) On October 19, Tonga and the PRC signed a RMB 440 million (USD $60 million) concessional loan agreement for the redevelopment of post-riot Nuku`alofa. Reportedly, the IMF has expressed concern that the size of loan and future exchange-rate changes could stress SUVA 00000554 003 OF 003 Tonga's fiscal position. The Tonga government is now discussing implementation with the lead contractor, China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC). CCECC has been active in Tonga for several years, with a number of large projects already completed, including a national convention center that hosted the October Pacific Island Forum meetings. The work has resulted in an influx of Chinese construction workers, which People's Representative Pohiva says has fueled illegal immigration and resentment by the Tonga community. Following the loan signing, PM Sevele noted, "There will be some people from China, but we hope there will be a sharing of jobs available from the reconstruction between China and Tonga, and that is being negotiated at the moment." ¶13. (U) The Legislative Assembly sent a delegation to visit the PRC November 17-25, headed by Finance Minister Siosiua Utoikamanu. The invitation, from the PRC National People's Congress (NPC), reciprocated a visit to Nuku`alofa in early September in which the NPC delegation came bearing gifts of laptop computers and furniture for Tonga's Legislative Assembly. China also donated a fleet of police motorcycles and luxury sedans for the Forum summit, which are now being used by various ministries. Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Until King, Cabinet, and Nobles join People's Reps to commit Tonga formally to reforms nothing is certain. Per previous reporting, the King seems anxious to proceed, acknowledging the potential volatility of the public mood. The 2008 election may not directly test the popularity of PM Sevele; but how People's Rep activists like Pohiva and Edwards fare will be an indicator of the public mood, post-riot. If Pohiva continues to be the leading vote-getter, the push to cement reforms in place ASAP will receive a big boost. DINGER