PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM STAYS STRONG ON FIJI AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 SUVA 000532 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV SENV AORC FJ SI TN XV SUBJECT: PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM STAYS STRONG ON FIJI AND RAMSI; EAP A/S HILL AFFIRMS U.S. POSITIONS, ANNOUNCES PACIFIC PROGRAMS REF: SUVA 471 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) EAP A/S Hill led the U.S. delegation to the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Post-Forum Dialogue (PFD) in Tonga Oct. 17-19. The PFD experimented this year with a plenary format that consisted mostly of prepared remarks by island leaders and 14 dialogue partners on the issues of Fiji, Solomon Islands, climate change, energy, fisheries, tourism, and health. In the plenary, A/S Hill announced several new USG initiatives for the Pacific. On the margins of the PFD, A/S Hill engaged in bilaterals with Australian FM Downer, New Zealand PM Clark, the EU, China, Japan, France, Korea, the PIF, the Solomon Islands, the RAMSI coordinator, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau, and had pull-asides with the UK, Tonga, and PNG. In addition, EAP/ANP Director McGann briefed island reps on prospects for job creation in Guam and held Trilateral Strategic Dialogue and Quad 1 meetings focused on Pacific maritime and security issues. A Venezuelan Vice Minister "observed" the Forum at Tonga's invitation. ¶2. (C) PIF leaders, in their meeting, continued to press for a return to democratic rule in Fiji. In an unprecedented act, they asked Commodore Bainimarama to leave the room during deliberations on Fiji and the Solomons. In the Leaders Meeting, Bainimarama clearly committed to elections under the current Constitution in the first quarter of 2009. He said deposed PM Qarase and his SDL party could compete, and the Fiji military would abide by the results. However, after the meeting, Bainimarama and interim government ministers undertook a PR response that leaves uncertainties. Solomon Islands PM Sogavare boycotted the PIF Leaders meeting in opposition to a recent PIF review that complimented the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). The leaders reiterated their support of RAMSI and encouraged PM Sogavare to work with the PIF and RAMSI. Leaders endorsed a modified proposal for restructuring regional organizations, most notably to blend SOPAC into the SPC and SPREP. They also reiterated a long-standing PIF request for the U.S. to approve the Republic of the Marshall Islands, (RMI) request for additional compensation for nuclear-test-related claims. End summary. PIF Strong on Fiji -------------- ¶3. (C) In separate bilats after the PIF Leaders Meeting, PM Clark and FM Downer were upbeat about the results on Fiji. Prior to the PIF, Bainimarama had attempted to cultivate island leaders -- PNG, Solomons, and Tonga in particular -- hoping to isolate Australian and New Zealand pressure for a timely return to democracy in Fiji. In the end, SI PM Sogavare didn't show up, and all other island leaders stood firm, with Samoa particularly effective, PNG helpful, and even Tonga, thought by many to be waffling, staying the course. Leaders brushed aside an initial move during the Leaders Meeting by the Chair, Tonga PM Sevele, to deal with administrative and other issues prior to addressing the contentious issues of Fiji and RAMSI. Fiji and RAMSI were the first issues discussed and agreed upon. ¶4. (C) Bainimarama was permitted to make an opening statement on his policies and vision for the future. PM Clark then led the reactions, asking pointed questions that, she told us, revealed Bainimarama's shallow thinking on the issues and lack of depth on Fiji constitutional processes. FM Downer was similarly effective. Importantly, other island leaders asked useful questions as well, and it became very clear that leaders remained united in their displeasure with SUVA 00000532 002 OF 006 Bainimarama's coup and its aftermath. According to attendees, not a single leader spoke up for Bainimarama during the meeting (only PIF leaders attend the leaders' retreat). Even Sevele, who as host of the PIF had invited Bainimarama to attend, raised pointed questions on how to return Fiji to democratic rule. ¶5. (C) Clark and Downer said that when leaders questioned how Bainimarama proposed to make changes to the Constitution, he repeatedly referred to his "People's Charter" proposal, without being able to explain how that would be constitutionally legitimated. The Leaders' communique, which is reached by consensus, simply "notes" the Charter proposal without in any way endorsing it. Importantly, the communique reiterates the PIF's way forward for restoration of "constitutional and democratic government in Fiji," welcomes Bainimarama's commitment to elections in the first quarter of 2009, notes his assurance to Forum Leaders that he and the Fiji military will accept the outcome, calls on the Interim Government to develop a credible road map to the elections "according to the Constitution and law of Fiji," urges the IG to make that the "highest priority," expresses appreciation for support by the international community, commends work of the Fiji/Forum Joint Working Group, and calls for a meeting of Forum Foreign Ministers in January 2008 to review progress. ¶6. (C) PM Clark told A/S Hill in their bilat that someone had to be the "dragon lady" on Fiji. She clearly didn't mind the role. Her main point of pride was that the PIF put Bainimarama under pressure and he then committed to the language of the communique. He also assured the Leaders that deposed PM Qarase and his SDL party will be allowed to compete in the elections. Clark said the PIF did its part, and she agreed with A/S Hill that the international community must remain engaged. Clark commented that the EU has been generally helpful, though she believes it undercut other efforts by the international community when, in negotiations in Brussels, the EU did not back the PIF Eminent Persons Group's (EPG) call for the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) to return to the barracks. In subsequent bilats, counterparts agreed with A/S Hill on the need to coordinate on Fiji policy, but some concerns were raised. During the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue, Japan and Australia expressed a degree of worry about China's and Taiwan's "dollar-diplomacy" and the possible effects on Fiji. PIF Supports RAMSI -------------- ¶7. (C) The PIF Communique strongly supported RAMSI. The Leaders noted that a PIF review of RAMSI this year was conducted according to the agreed terms of reference. Leaders endorsed the recommendations of the review and commended them to the Solomon Islands Government (SIG). The Leaders also agreed to pursue urgent consultations with the SIG via the Forum Ministerial Standing Committee, noted the SIG's own plans for a review of the SI law on RAMSI, and reminded the SIG of past assurances that any proposals to amend that law will be subject to prior consultations with RAMSI contributing countries. PM Clark and FM Downer, in their bilats with A/S Hill, suggested that SIG PM Sogavare's decision to boycott the Leaders Meeting because of unhappiness with the outcome of the PIF review clearly had backfired. Clark and Downer said leaders were not happy at being snubbed and they showed it via their communique. ¶8. (C) In a meeting with SI Foreign Minister Oti, A/S Hill asked about the SIG's decision not to attend the Leaders Meeting. Oti said he had been prepared to attend the meeting, but the SI Cabinet voted not to have anyone attend. With that, Oti objected in a muted fashion to RAMSI being discussed during the meeting. He argued that because the SIG SUVA 00000532 003 OF 006 did not attend, RAMSI should be off the agenda. ¶9. (C) A/S Hill noted concerns about the SIG approach to the PIF review of RAMSI. Oti acknowledged that the SIG requested the review and established the terms of reference. He complained, however, that the review glossed over what he called the first and most important term of reference: to review the initial SI law under which RAMSI operates. He said that, without adequate review of that law, the other terms of reference are irrelevant. At this stage the SIG believes RAMSI should be reviewed internally since it is the SIG that actually represents the interests of the people of the Solomon Islands. Oti averred that the SIG realizes how much RAMSI has done for the SI and is not doing anything to undermine its efforts. He said Australia, in particular, misrepresents SIG actions to create problems. ¶10. (C) Oti said the new SIG review of RAMSI will begin by the end of October. The first stage will be to assess public opinion of RAMSI, followed by an assessment of the international components and perceptions, with a return to Parliament for a final assessment. Hill stressed that while the U.S. acknowledges RAMSI is not perfect, we continue to support it strongly and we believe any differences can be worked through. Hill also highlighted the importance the United States places on the SIG working with Australia and the rest of the international community. ¶11. (C) RAMSI Special Coordinator Tim George summarized the PIF position on RAMSI in his meeting with Hill, with emphasis on Australian and New Zealand policies. George said 2007 started off poorly, then slowly improved through June as the SIG took a number of positive steps. By mid-July the signals were becoming mixed, though Sogavare gave a public speech in which he stated RAMSI must stay. Thereafter he rejected the PIF report on RAMSI, and in September the SIG speech at the UN stated RAMSI is an occupying force and is undermining SI's sovereignty. Now, George said, many actions by the SIG appear directed towards undermining RAMSI or even pushing RAMSI out of SI. The lack of transparency in Sogavare's policy creates difficulties for all involved. Despite repeated requests, Sogavare had not met George in six weeks. George described the RAMSI-SI relationship as "a bit odd." He judged that only a small group of people in Sogavare's office create most of the problems. Over 90 percent of the population, including MPs, want RAMSI to stay. George said RAMSI has no objection to the SIG review per the initial agreement. RAMSI has done well and will stand up to scrutiny. He also appreciated the PIF report, despite criticisms of RAMSI and its operations. Overall the PIF conducted a professional review and highlighted areas for improvement. RAMSI's concern with the new SIG review is the process. PIF Plenary: A/S Hill Delivers U.S. Message -------------- ¶12. (SBU) A/S Hill led the U.S. delegation to the first-ever PIF/PFD Plenary, an attempt by the PIF to improve the previous dialogue structure that was comprised of 20-minute sessions between a few Forum Foreign Ministers and individual dialogue partners. The Plenary began with the new Forum Chair, Tonga PM Sevele, summarizing the outcomes of the Leaders Meeting. He then opened the floor for discussion. A/S Hill highlighted the United States' continued support for PIF efforts to restore democracy in Fiji and our full support for RAMSI. Many of the other international partners also used the opportunity to express support for PIF efforts with Fiji and RAMSI. The PRC noted a hope for a consensus in Fiji for elections and the usefulness of a "constructive effort" by the international community for dialogue. A few, including India and Thailand, were silent on Fiji and RAMSI. A/S Hill noted the planned relocation of military forces to SUVA 00000532 004 OF 006 Guam and possible benefits to the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). ¶13. (SBU) After general discussion, the PFD Plenary turned to five thematic sessions on climate change, energy, fisheries, health, and tourism. For each, a PIF Leader initially summarized Forum views and achievements, then dialogue partners delivered remarks. A/S Hill made interventions on each issue and stressed U.S. willingness to work with the PICs. On climate change, he announced new USG initiatives to develop a coastal zone resilience project, to help the SPC improve food security, and to second a State officer to the SPC. On energy, he noted USG efforts to improve energy efficiency in the Compact States. On fisheries, he highlighted the U.S. Tuna Treaty and discussed USG efforts to facilitate cooperation on maritime law-enforcement issues. On tourism, he noted potential positive effects of the military relocation to Guam. On health, he announced the USG will organize a Summit on Diabetes Prevention in the Pacific and noted an increase to $2 million in USG HIV/AIDs assistance to the region. The health topic brought forth the only significant back and forth between members and partners. Several commended the USG proposal for a diabetes summit and urged careful coordination in advance. PM Clark accented the need for PICS to focus on women's health issues. RIF Review -------------- ¶14. (U) Regarding the Regional Institutional Framework (RIF) review (see reftel),the Forum Leaders communique announced a decision to leave the Forum Fisheries Agency untouched, but (1) to "rationalize the functions" of the Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) by "absorbing" SOPAC functions into the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environmental Program (SPREP),and (2) to merge the South Pacific Bureau for Education Assessment (SPBEA) into SPC. In the PFD Plenary, Tonga PM Sevele only noted that there will be a "further look" at SOPAC, SPREP, SPBEA, and SPC regarding possible overlaps. We heard that Sevele's reticence reflected instant blow-back from the SOPAC Governing Board. (Note: The USG had raised legal, financial, and operational concerns about a broader RIF restructuring proposal. The communique concept, while narrower in scope, would still bring significant changes to SPC and SPREP, the two regional organizations in which the USG is a member, so past USG concerns would remain. We heard from SPC Director General Rodgers that he did not expect the SPC to address the RIF revisions at this year's annual meeting in early November, preferring first to observe outcomes from the SOPAC annual meeting two weeks later. We received the impression that nobody believes actual RIF mergers/absorptions would take place until a year or two from now at the earliest. End note.) Maritime Law Enforcement Cooperation and TSD -------------- ¶15. (C) Australia opened its presentation during the Quad 1 on maritime law enforcement (MLE) cooperation by presenting a document on current gaps in MLE in the Pacific. All participants (Australia, France, New Zealand, the U.S., PIF, and the SPC) agreed on the benefit of continuing Quad 1 discussion, though a number of process questions remain. SPC rep Falani Aukuso noted his organization is already involved and connected with the other regional organizations that would be interested, such as the Forum Fisheries Agency and the PIF. All agreed that the best way forward is to focus initially on fisheries issues. EAP/ANP Director McGann recommended that each nation review the gap paper presented by Australia and the U.S. paper that was revised after the recent DVC and prepare to meet in Apia in November on the SUVA 00000532 005 OF 006 margins of the annual SPC meetings. France confirmed it would have comments on the U.S. paper at that time, though there was a general concern that experts would not be there. McGann urged participants to continue the momentum of the meetings and have a discussion in Apia, even if not at the expert level. A separate Trilateral Security Dialogue (TSD) meeting among Australian, Japanese, and U.S. delegations was held to review Forum outcomes particularly regarding Fiji and Solomon Islands. All sides welcomed progress toward getting Bainimarama to agree to a March 2009 election. Japan and the U.S. expressed support for RAMSI and Australia,s role. The delegations affirmed acceptance of the December dates for a TSD Political Directors meeting in Canberra. SIPDIS Military Relocation to Guam -------------- ¶16. (SBU) McGann gave an update to representatives from the islands and regional organizations on the current status of the U.S. military relocation from Okinawa to Guam. He highlighted efforts by the international community to coordinate efforts to prepare PIC citizens to take advantage of the relocation, which is estimated to cost $10-14 billion, with approximately 60 percent funded by Japan. There will be numerous spin-off requirements in construction, engineering, services, tourism, healthcare, and other positions, and with proper preparation the islanders can make sure they have equal access to opportunities. The donor community is looking at technical training, transportation, and other means to improve island capacities to compete in the expected Guam job market. China bilat -------------- ¶17. (C) Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui and A/S Hill began their bilateral by discussing Fiji. Zhang noted he had just concluded a meeting with the Fiji delegation in which Bainimarama gave assurance he did not seek power and only wants stability. China was pleased that the PIF Leaders were able to achieve consensus on Fiji. When Hill raised concerns about "competitive dollar diplomacy" in the region, Zhang stated Chinese assistance to the region "has no political strings." though he noted that "some have a different view." He concurred with A/S Hill that there should be better dialogue and coordination on aid and humanitarian assistance. Thus, the U.S. "Core Partners" concept is useful. He said China is interested in assisting the region with small-scale solar power. Zhang accused Taiwan of continually engaging in "cash diplomacy, not caring about development," just wanting "more space." Zhang noted China's FM would call in Amb. Randt in Beijing shortly to protest strongly the Dalai Lama's reception in Washington. Zhang and Hill concluded the meeting with a discussion of Six-Party Talks developments, including the prospects for a possible Six-Party Ministerial. FSM bilat -------------- ¶18. (SBU) New FSM President Mori raised a laundry list of topics in his bilat with A/S Hill. Mori asked if the USG would object to the Compact States joining in the region's proposed Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU. EAP/ANP Director McGann responded that the USG welcomed a diplomatic note regarding FSM,s participation in the EPA and did not foresee any objections. McGann also promised to update Kolonia on issues regarding fiber optic cable connectivity between FSM islands. EU bilat -------------- ¶19. (C) EU Director General for Development Cooperation Manservisi compared notes with A/S Hill on Fiji and RAMSI. He reported on the state of EU-Pacific region EPA SUVA 00000532 006 OF 006 Negotiations, which he said must be handled within WTO constraints. He raised Timor-Leste, noting elections were acceptable but the Fretelin problem remains. He noted with disappointment that China did not attend an EU-hosted lunch for donors to the Pacific region. Finally, Manservisi raised an EU concern that the RMI is not meeting OECD standards regarding its taxation regime, an important measure of good governance. He asked the USG to weigh in with the RMI Government. A/S Hill noted that we would consult with RMI regarding the EU,s concerns. Burma -------------- ¶20. (C) In PM Clark's bilat with A/S Hill, she noted that ASEAN has "stood up more than one would have thought" regarding the Burma problem. She suggested China is interested in finding a long-term solution for Burma since "the Chinese like order." She noted that "we all deal with China despite its human-rights abuses. So what is the right approach to Burma?" Clark said that in the end, there must be a multilateral approach that includes China and at least a number of the ASEANs. Unfortunately, she said, Thailand "lost its moral authority" with the coup there. Clark described India's silence as "reprehensible." Separately, FM Downer suggested to A/S Hill that the East Asia Summit could be a useful venue for addressing Burma, given that EAS membership includes China, all the ASEANs, and India. In addition, UK Minister and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Meg Munn engaged in a pull-aside with A/S Hill specifically to be briefed on the USG view of Burma. Venezuela -------------- ¶21. (C) Tonga expedited a Government of Venezuela request to be an observer for the Forum meetings. Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Poljak and the Venezuela Charge d, Affaires in Canberra attended. Poljak told the media that his Government is ready to help end the West's "domination" of the region, and he referred to Venezuela's "very aggressive energy-linked political philosophy" which seeks to "end the use of fuel as a weapon of domination over smaller countries." Poljak stated Venezuela could help Pacific states by providing "cheap fuel." He said a particular possibility for aid could be to help provide "a storage space for their fuel and petroleum." Poljak did not provide further details, but he did inform the media of approaches in recent months by Pacific states interested in securing closer economic and diplomatic links. Note: The Venezuela Charge was in Nauru in July for a donor Conference. End note. Comment -------------- ¶22. (C) The ability of Forum Leaders to continue a firm stance on Fiji's need to return to democracy ASAP and on the importance of RAMSI is very encouraging. The PIF traditionally has emphasized consensus, the "Pacific Way" of reaching solutions. This year, Leaders saw the need to press Bainimarama and Sogavare in the interest of the region's stability. The outcomes are in line with the approach the United States privately advocated to each PIC during the past year. Despite Bainimarama's subsequent waffling to the media, he made firm commitments that Leaders will expect him to fulfill. The outcome for the Solomon Islands was not as clearly defined, but, importantly, the Leaders were unambiguous in their support of RAMSI. A/S Hill's two-days of participation accented that the U.S. is an increasingly active participant in Pacific issues, and PIC leaders appreciated the new USG offers of assistance for key priorities. DINGER