FIJI UPDATE: 10/24/07

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000501 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PHUM FJ SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: 10/24/07 REF: SUVA 498 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Fiji interim Prime Minister Bainimarama's seemingly firm commitment in Tonga last week to hold free elections in March 2009 has brought gasps from his friends in the Fiji Labor Party. FLP leader Chaudhry is considering his options. Bainimarama and deposed PM Qarase are beginning to discuss dialogue, though complications are already arising. Fiji's Roman Catholics are split over Archbishop Mataca's agreeing to co-chair Bainimarama's People's Charter effort. Discussion of President Iloilo's mental fitness has gone public. Appointments to the Electoral Boundaries Commission have made interim Attorney General Sayed Khaiyum appear inept. They also indicate the IG intends to control the boundary-making process. End summary. Bainimarama election commitment draws FLP flack -------------- -- ¶2. (C) As described reftel, Fiji interim Prime Minister Bainimarama, during Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) meetings in Tonga last week, committed to hold constitutionally acceptable general elections in March 2009. He also promised PIF leaders that deposed PM Qarase and his SDL party could compete in those elections. Several sources have said that a number of members of the interim cabinet, most prominently interim Finance Minister Chaudhry, had received assurance from Bainimarama before taking cabinet portfolios that the interim government (IG) would stay in place for at least five years. With that they accepted Bainimarama's publicly announced pledge that nobody in the interim cabinet would run in the next general election. Bainimarama's commitment in Tonga to elections in the nearer term brought a negative reaction from Chaudhry's Fiji Labor Party, with FLP President Koroi complaining publicly that the clean-up of Fiji to ensure truly unbiased elections would not be completed by March 2009. ¶3. (C) Note: we understand that in a meeting with EAP PDAS Davies on Oct. 22 Chaudhry reported Bainimarama has revised his prohibition on interim cabinet ministers running in the next election. Chaudhry said the rule now is that a minister must resign at least six months before the election. In the meeting, Chaudhry reportedly said he is still mulling his election options. End note. Bainimarama-Qarase dialogue in the works? -------------- ¶4. (U) On Bainimarama's return from Tonga, the PM's office wrote to Qarase proposing the commencement of a political dialogue. In September, when Qarase returned from exile on his home island, he had proposed a dialogue, but Bainimarama curtly rejected that course at the time. Qarase's positive response to the letter from the PM's office has brought a cautious reaction from Bainimarama, who informed the media any dialogue would need to have appropriate ground rules in place, including agreement that discussions would be within the context of the "People's Charter" process. Roman Catholics in turmoil -------------- ¶5. (C) The IG's selection of Catholic Archbishop Mataca to be Bainimarama's co-chair of the People's Charter process brought anguish to those Catholic parishioners who oppose the coup and its aftermath. A number of prominent Catholics -- including Chief Justice Fatiaki's wife, lawyer Graham Leung, High Chief and former Minister Ro Tememu Kepa, and former Minister Kenneth Zinck -- met with Mataca a few days ago to plead for him to remove himself from politics. In the words of Mrs. Fatiaki, as the constructive discussion was wrapping up "the devil entered the room" in the presence of Ben Vunibobo, a Minister in the Rabuka governments of the 1990s and reputedly a behind-the-scenes backer of the 2000 coups. Vunibobo has been silent publicly about the 2006 coup, but reportedly he used scathing language in the meeting to leave no doubt that he supports the IG and the Archbishop's new role. After the meeting, the Archbishop wrote a letter to the media offering an apology to any Catholics he has offended but confirming that he sees it as his Christian duty to help move Fiji forward via the People's Charter process. Public discussion of President Iloilo's capacity -------------- --- SUVA 00000501 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Human-rights activist Shamima Ali said publicly this week what many others who oppose the IG have been thinking: that 86-year-old President Iloilo is no longer capable of taking the decisions the IG has ascribed to him ever since the coup. Ms. Ali didn't discuss mental capacity but simply suggested Iloilo is "tired." Bainimarama and others in the IG immediately leapt to Iloilo's defense. Bainimarama said the President still thinks clearly, can talk at length about events of 60 years ago, and still makes decisions based on his Christian principles. The IG put out a media release chastizing any who would criticize the President. Note: As previously reported, Iloilo's personal physician has told us quite definitively that the President has been suffering from "dementia" for several years. IG confusion re Boundaries Commission -------------- ¶7. (C) The IG named a three-member Electoral Boundaries Commission two weeks ago, with a Suva lawyer Ulamila Fa Tui-Tuku as Chairman. We had heard that Ms. Fa learned of her selection from the media release and was quite surprised. This week, Ms. Fa officially resigned from the role. Interim Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum then announced on Oct. 24 that President Iloilo has appointed Adi Koila Nailatikau -- law partner of Ms. Fa, daughter of founding father Ratu Mara, wife of interim FM Nailatikau, and sister to coup participant LtCol. Tevita Mara -- to chair the Commission. Within hours, the Fiji Times pointed out that Adi Koila is constitutionally ineligible for the job because she served in Fiji's Senate within the past four years. Qarase's SDL Party has called for Sayed-Khaiyum to resign as AG for the embarrassment he has caused the President. Sayed-Khaiyum then issued an apology. Aside from the constitutional aspect, the Adi Koila appointment brought clarity to the IG's intention to ensure boundaries are drawn to IG specifications. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) For the moment at least, it appears Bainimarama intends to move the IG toward elections in March 2009. However, his every instinct will be to find ways to stretch the timing out to allow more "clean up" and more re-education of the populace before risking a free and fair vote. Chaudhry and others benefiting from IG positions will encourage such delay. If the election were held today, it is very likely the IG's supporters would lose and lose badly. The Bainimarama-Qarase dialogue theoretically could be very useful for Fiji. However, both men are very stubborn and very committed to their own views for the future. Qarase's SDL Party has rejected the People's Charter concept, yet Bainimarama seems to be insisting that concept be the context for any dialogue. Even the preliminary sparring could be interesting. MANN