BAINIMARAMA COMMITS TO ELECTIONS IN 2009; SAYS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000498 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR FJ SUBJECT: BAINIMARAMA COMMITS TO ELECTIONS IN 2009; SAYS MILITARY WILL ACCEPT RESULTS ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Fiji's Interim Prime Minister, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, told Pacific Leaders 10/17 that his interim government (IG) was committed to elections by the first quarter of 2009, and that the military would accept the results. The Forum Leaders welcomed Bainimarama's commitment and urged the IG to work with the Forum to produce a credible roadmap to those elections according to the law and Constitution of Fiji. The Leaders called for a meeting of the Forum Foreign Ministers in January, 2008 to review progress toward holding elections. Deposed PM Qarase called Bainimarama's commitment a positive development, as did the governments of the United States, Australia and New Zealand. Each of these countries stressed the need for the IG to work closely with the Forum and to demonstrate more concrete progress toward a quick return to democracy. End summary. Bainimarama Commits to Elections in March 2009 -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) In his speech to Pacific leaders at the Pacific Island Forum Leaders' Meeting in Tonga October 17, Fiji Interim PM Bainimarama said "my government is committed to preparing for parliamentary elections to be held in the first quarter of 2009, as recommended by the Forum-sponsored assessment team." The speech as it appears on the Fiji Government website does not specifically state that Bainimarama also committed to accepting the results of the election. Leaders, however, clearly understood him to have made that commitment. The Leaders outcome document states, "(the leaders) welcome the undertaking of the Fiji Interim Government to the Forum Leaders today that a parliamentary election will be held in the first quarter of 2009, and note that he and the Republic of Fiji Military Forces will accept the outcome of the elections in the first quarter of 2009." In statements to the press after the Leaders' Meeting, Bainimarama reiterated his pledge to hold elections in early ¶2009. "I have given an undertaking," he told the press, "and we will go to the polls in 2009. There is enough time, I believe, to get us there." Leaders Outcome Document -------------- ¶3. (SBU) After their discussion of the situation in Fiji, the Leaders agreed on the following set of outcomes: --Endorsed the findings of the Forum-sponsored Eminent Persons Group Report and the Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting in March 2007 as an appropriate way forward to the restoration of constitutional and democratic government in Fiji; --Welcomed Bainimarama's pledge to hold elections by early 2009 and to honor the results of that election (as noted para 2 above); --Called on the IG to work with the Fiji-Forum Joint Working Group to produce a credible roapmap to those elections according to the Constitution and law of Fiji, and urged the IG to accord the highest priority to that task; --Noted that the IG is pursuing an initiative to produce a People's Charter; --Expressed appreciation for the support which members of the international community have accorded to the Forum's actions in addressing the pathway to elections by the first quarter of 2009; --Commended the work carried out by the Fiji-Forum Joint Working Group in seeking to advance the pathway to those elections; and --Called for a meeting of the Forum Foreign Ministers in January, 2008 to review progress towards elections. Bainimarama Says "We Came Away As Winners" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Bainimarama told reporters he was happy with the Leaders' Outcome statement. He specifically applauded the fact that the Leaders had "noted" his People's Charter initiative. Interim Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum also said the "note" of the People's Charter was very significant, saying it showed that Leaders understand why the IG is pursuing that initiative. Bainimarama said the Forum meetings had been very positive. "As they say in rugby, we SUVA 00000498 002 OF 002 came as underdogs and went away as winners." United States, Australia and New Zealand Call the Pledge a Positive Step -------------- ¶6. (SBU) New Zealand Prime Minister Clark and Australia Foreign Minister Downer called Bainimarama's pledge "heartening." Both stressed the need for Bainimarama and the IG to follow through, and to demonstrate a genuine commitment to an election roadmap developed in conjunction with the Forum. A State Department press statement said that the United States views the pledge as a step in the right direction, and calls on the IG to work with the Forum to produce a credible roadmap to elections. The statement was widely reported in all Fiji media. ¶7. (SBU) In his meetings with reporters, Bainimarama took a slap at Australia and New Zealand, particularly, for not immediately endorsing all aspects of his election pledge. In an interview published on the Fiji government website, Bainimarama said "I am very disappointed when people said (sic) you need to show concrete evidence for the polls. What other concrete evidence do they need? We have had the census, the boundaries commission has been nominated, electoral commission has been nominated. I don't know what else they need. Do they want us to have elections tomorrow? What else to they want us to do to show them concrete evidence? We are going to have the polls in 2009, full stop." Again referring to Australia and New Zealand, he said, "We have given them all the signs that we want to head towards a 2009 election, but I get the impression that they think I have evil intentions in that I want to stay around for another 10 years." The Qarase Factor -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Deposed PM Qarase welcomed the Commodore's pledge, although he believes elections could be held much sooner than March 2009. Qarase said his SDL party would contest the election, and insisted that SDL has greater support now than it did before the coup. In comments to the press, Bainimarama did not directly address Qarase's possible candidacy, but said Qarase would not be a problem come election time. "If anybody with Qarase-like policies comes in," he said, "the (People's) Charter will automatically remove them." (Comment: As this ambiguous statement indicates, Bainimarama appears unwilling to state clearly that Qarase and the SDL will be allowed to fully participate in the proposed 2009 elections. End comment.) Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Bainimarama's pledge is a positive development. We have plenty to reasons to remain skeptical, however, given previous statements that Fiji will not be rushed into elections by the international community and that the SDL will not be allowed to return to power. As the Outcome Document indicates, the Forum remains a very powerful and effective vehicle in pressuring the IG into having early elections. The January Forum Foreign Ministers meeting will be another strong opportunity to keep that pressure on. MANN