PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM SCENESETTER - FOCUS ON FIJI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000488 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON FJ SUBJECT: PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM SCENESETTER - FOCUS ON FIJI ¶1. (SBU) The situation in Fiji will be one of the main topics of discussion during the upcoming Pacific Island Forum meetings. Fiji interim PM Bainimarama's planned attendance at the Forum Leaders' meeting has already created considerable controversy in the region and is likely to dominate media coverage of the event. The Forum countries have played a very positive role in the past year in urging the quick restoration of democracy to Fiji. The Forum will be another opportunity for Forum members and Post Forum Dialogue Partners to press Fiji's interim government to follow through on its "in principle" commitment to hold elections in March 2009, if not sooner. Fiji's Coup and the Interim Government -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The December 2006 coup led by RFMF Commander Bainimarama was followed by the installation of an interim government (IG) with Bainimarama as interim PM. A military council reportedly makes policy behind the scene. Key players in the IG include ex-military leaders such as interim Foreign Minister Nailatikau and interim Fijian Affairs Minister Ganilau, and several former Labor Party ministers, led by former PM Chaudhry, who is interim Finance Minister. Bainimarama has installed military officials as the heads of Fiji's police and prison services, and has placed a sprinkling of military officers in other senior civil service positions. The IG has also taken steps to remake the judiciary to its liking, engineering the suspension of Chief Justice Fatiaki and installing several judicial officials allegedly with affiliations to coup perpetrators. Several long-serving High Court and Appeals Court justices have left the bench, or soon will do so, vowing not to seek reappointment by a regime they consider illegitimate. Bainimarama and the military control all branches of government, at least for the moment. Human Rights in Fiji/Fears of Unrest -------------- ¶3. (SBU) While the coup itself was bloodless, the military used intimidation tactics, and sometimes violence, to silence opposition and solidify its hold on power. In the months immediately following the coup, individuals who dared to speak out were routinely taken to the military camp and subjected to threats and often physical abuse. Two young men - both interrogated by the military for alleged criminal, not political, behavior - died in military custody early this year. The interim regime has endlessly delayed bringing the murderers to justice. ¶4. (SBU) Largely because of pressure from the international community, the military appears to have curtailed serious human rights abuses characteristic of the regime's early days. A few activists continue to speak out against the IG. The press, while self-censoring, has at times been quite critical of the regime. Partly due to concerns about the potential loss of EU sugar assistance funding, the IG in May removed Public Emergency Regulations (PER) which limited free speech and other rights. The regime reimposed the PER in September after deposed PM Qarase returned to Suva from internal exile and made comments the military deemed "inciteful." The IG removed the PER again on October 5. It remains to be seen if Qarase and other political figures will be able to speak freely. Clearly the IG is very sensitive to domestic criticism and fears challenges to its hold on power. Significant discontent exists beneath the surface in Fiji, especially in the ethnic-Fijian community, but to date it has not burst forth in the streets. The Economy in Trouble -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Fiji's economy has suffered tremendously since the coup. The Reserve Bank of Fiji predicts that the economy will contract by 3% in 2007. That may be an under-estimate. Foreign and domestic investments have dropped precipitously; retail sales are down substantially; and both imports and exports have fallen. Tourism, the one sector with the potential to help Fiji rebound, has yet to recover, partly due to the regime's failure to recognize that actions it takes, such as reimposition of the Public Emergency Regulations, can have a direct, negative impact on tourist arrivals. Elections in 2009? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In February, the Forum Foreign Ministers called SUVA 00000488 002 OF 002 for elections no later than March 2009, or by November 2008 if appropriate foreign aid is offered. The IG agreed "in principle" to elections in March 2009. Unfortunately, the IG has sent very mixed messages since. It did undertake a census in September, but it has not yet named an Electoral Boundaries Commission or a Supervisor of Elections. The military has repeatedly stated that it will not allow Qarase and his SDL party to return to power, raising serious concerns about "free and fair" elections. Bainimarama has frequently said elections will not take place until the military and IG are sure the goals of the coup have been met, with the main goal being to change voter mindsets so that race issues no longer dominate Fiji politics. The IG has proposed a "People's Charter" process to lead Fiji's transformation and ready the population for truly fair elections, a process that could take a very long time. Race has always been a major factor in Fiji politics. The racial gulf appeared to be mending a bit after the May 2006 elections when PM Qarase named a truly multi-ethnic cabinet, but it has deepened since the coup. Many in the ethnic Fijian community perceive the coup as pro-Indian, pointing to the prominent role played by Chaudhry and others. The Role of the Forum -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Pacific Island Forum has played a very constructive role in post-coup Fiji, urging an end to human rights abuses and helping coordinate efforts toward new elections in the relatively near term. Earlier this year, the Forum Foreign Ministers, drawing from the Forum-sponsored "Eminent Person Group" (EPG) report, showed a willingness to stand up to the Fiji interim regime and press hard for a return to democracy. In Tonga, Forum leaders will consider next steps. Having pressed the IG to commit to elections no later than March 2009, the Forum and its partners now have a far more daunting task - to convince the IG to follow through on that "in principle" promise. . . DINGER