NAURU: PHOSPHATE ROLLER COASTER; ELECTIONS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000408 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017 TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV PREF EAIR ECON NR VE CU SUBJECT: NAURU: PHOSPHATE ROLLER COASTER; ELECTIONS WITH TOUGH-LOVE THEME REF: A. SUVA 398 ¶B. SUVA 402 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Tiny Nauru in the central Pacific suffered perhaps the world's most dramatic lifestyle decline in recent years after exhausting visible phosphate deposits. Currently, Nauruans barely scrape by. Thus, a PACOM humanitarian-assistance mission July 21-27 was very well received. There is a degree of hope for Nauru's future because of a recently discovered sub-surface layer of phosphates, though the nation's current debt burden is shocking. If Nauru politicians manage increased revenues responsibly this time, the future can be relatively bright. If not, Nauru's only future will depend on donors. The Scotty Government seems to have done a reasonable job of managing adversity and instituting reforms. Elections on August 25 will determine whether voters are thankful or resentful for tough love. President Scotty continues to seek a Peace Corps program, and he wants Nauruans to obtain Guam construction jobs. Venezuela and Cuba are collaborating on a second effort to provide medical doctors for Nauru. Australia is the big donor, in part because of Nauru's willingness to house South Asians who await hearings on asylum applications to Australia. End summary. PACOM HA mission a big success -------------- ¶2. (U) The Ambassador visited Nauru July 24-27 to observe a PACOM humanitarian-assistance mission, attend a donor conference, and engage in discussions with Nauru contacts. The military HA mission was a great success, with outstanding interactions at hospitals, in schools, and even with a group of workers learning how to remove asbestos from buildings. President Scotty was impressed. He noted that even a political opponent, former PM Rene Harris, had phoned to compliment the U.S. team. Two U.S. Army doctors had consulted with Harris very helpfully about his kidney dialysis. PCVs, GSP, Guam jobs, and concerns about Fiji -------------- ¶3. (U) Per ref A, President Scotty reiterated his interest in Nauru receiving Peace Corps Volunteers. He expressed appreciation for EAP A/S Hill's recent letter on that topic. We noted communications between USTR and the Nauru Mission in New York about how Nauru can gain eligibility for GSP benefits. Scotty raised, as have leaders in Tuvalu and Kiribati, a strong interest in sending workers to Guam for the coming construction projects. We assured that Washington will keep the region informed of developments. Scotty and Minister Adeang noted that Fiji is regionally important for education and health care. Adeang expressed concern that the military is destabilizing Fiji politics, and he noted that interim PM Bainimarama "makes strange decisions." Adeang said, after the Pacific Islands Foreign Ministers meeting on Fiji in Vanuatu, Bainimarama thanked Nauru's High Commissioner in Suva (Adeang's father) for Pacific Ministers' understanding. He had expected worse. Elections moved up to August, and why -------------- ¶4. (C) Nauru was due to hold general elections in October, but the Scotty team decided in mid-July to move the date up to August 25. Reasons include that: (1) recommendations from a constitutional review require 2/3 parliamentary approval, 12 of 18 votes; but the Scotty Government currently can be assured of only 11 votes; (2) plans are in place for a major AUSAID infusion of funds to re-energize Nauru's phosphate industry, but Australia reportedly wants assurance that a responsible government will be in place before committing; and (3) evidence was accumulating of PRC efforts to help Scotty opponents win the election, with the aim to shift Nauru's allegiance from Taiwan to China. Moving the election date forward would reduce the opportunity for such PRC conniving (see ref B). Scotty reform team expects victory SUVA 00000408 002 OF 004 -------------- ¶5. (C) President Scotty and his team expressed confidence they will win the election. The Australian Consul General and the Taiwan Charge, the only foreign diplomats resident on Nauru, predicted a Scotty win also. However, the political game in tiny Nauru is very local. The Scotty group won the 2004 elections on a reform agenda, stressing that, for Nauru to survive economically, it was necessary to scale down government and clean up past corrupt and wasteful practices. Scotty imposed a drastic public-sector pay cut to A$140 biweekly across the board. The predecessor Harris Government had maintained high wages, but had failed to pay those wages for months on end. The Scotty Government worked diligently to correct past passport-sale, offshore-banking, and offshore corporate-registry schemes. Relatively automatic medical referrals and student scholarships to Australia ended. More effort has gone into providing basic medical care on Nauru, with any absolutely necessary referrals going to Fiji. Scholarship students also now go primarily to Fiji. Will suffering voters blame Scotty, or the old crowd? -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) All that made sense from a "good governance" perspective; but the reforms really hurt individual pocketbooks, and life-style changes have been acute. Political opponents, particularly former PMs Harris and Kinza Clodumar, have issued scathing news sheets, arguing such severe measures were not necessary and alleging the Scotty group, itself, has been corrupt, receiving Taiwan bribes. Whether the Scotty group has convinced Nauru voters that its medicine was necessary will be a key issue in the election campaign. There are reports that PRC agents have brought in A$40,000 to influence voters. Other reports suggest Clodumar, who lives most of the time in Melbourne and is rumored to be one of the wealthiest people in the State of Victoria, recently returned with A$200,000 of personal funds for opposition campaign activities, including his own race. Just before Parliament adjourned in July, the Scotty Government announced modest public-sector wage increases, and it hosted a donor conference on July 26 at which it described progress made on the reform agenda and received compliments from donors, especially from Australia (see para 11). An astounding debt load -------------- ¶7. (C) Nauru's decline from first-world to third-world status was partly due to exhaustion of phosphate reserves and partly due to remarkable profligacy by politicians and government managers. Assets worth A$2 billion in the mid-1990s have plummeted. All that remains is a trust fund with A$70 million reserved for landowners, dwarfed by Nauru debts estimated to be A$1 billion. About 2/3 of the debt is owed to Nauruans, 1/3 to a Japanese bond trust. The Scotty Government hopes to renegotiate those debts down to cents on the dollar, since A$1 billion is roughly 2400% of GDP and cannot possibly be serviced. Where did A$3 billion go? The Scotty Government is exploring criminal and/or civil court cases against allegedly corrupt former officials, in particular the Clodumar and Dowiyogo families, though we hear Australian lawyers are doubtful that sufficiently clear evidence can be produced. To an extent, Nauru simply spent extravagantly, never worrying about tomorrow. A new phosphate hope -------------- ¶8. (C) The discovery within the past two years of another layer of phosphate deposits beneath the mined-out limestone crags that cover 90% of the island offers hope of a second chance. Commerce Minister Pitcher said an Australian company is investing millions, and Nauruans, who used to shun manual labor, now are lining up for jobs at the mine site. An AUSAID study estimates 20-30 years of phosphate reserves worth at least A$600 million hide beneath the surface, around 500,000 tons per year that can add A$15 million to annual GDP, doubling the current figure. Pitcher predicted a long-term net of at least A$150 million for Nauru, which if wisely invested could allow a trust fund worth $1 billion in thirty years. Note: The plan is for Nauru's portion of the take to be divided among payments to landowners, payments to a land-rehabilitation trust fund, tax contributions to Government, and contributions to a new, inviolable, long-term SUVA 00000408 003 OF 004 trust fund. It was not at all clear what portions of the total would flow into each. We pointed out during the donor conference the importance of ensuring that the long-term trust fund is well-endowed for the day when phosphates are again exhausted. The Scotty Ministers promised to provide a clearer picture in writing, but have not done so as yet. Venezuelan and Cuban assistance -------------- ¶9. (C) The Venezuela Charge from Canberra attended the donor conference. He was quiet, except to confirm that his government plans to build and maintain facilities to support the return of Cuban doctors to Nauru. When Cuban MDs first arrived a few years ago, they reportedly had English-language problems and Nauru couldn't fund "ancillary expenses" as promised. The program quickly died; but it is due to resume, with the Venezuelan assistance. We heard from Nauru MFA that Venezuela invited all Pacific Chiefs of Mission headquartered in the U.S. to Caracas in July for a meeting to discuss how Venezuela can best utilize US$2 million to assist the region. A Pacific Forum interest in regional "bulk fuel" purchases was a possibility. Nauru had also heard that Fiji might be interested in hosting an oil refinery for the region. Minister Adeang noted that Nauru, with its glaring needs, will accept assistance from anyone, though he added that President Chavez's UNGA speech last year "didn't help him much." Australian aid and the asylum-seeker connection -------------- -- ¶10. (SBU) Australia is the big fish in Nauru, in part because of colonial-era phosphate connections and in part because of recent arrangements for Nauru to house South Asians (lately Sri Lankans and Burmese) seeking asylum in Australia pending the hearing of their cases. The number of such asylum seekers in Nauru is back up to around 100 after briefly zeroing out. The camp, overseen by the International Office of Migration (IOM),is reasonably comfortable, surely more hospitable than most such camps in the world, with good food and an open gate during the day. Nauruans reportedly are friendly to the asylum seekers. The only recent troubles have been fights between groups of Sri Lankans. Australian FM Downer visited Nauru in early July and signed a two-year aid extension worth A$15 million annually. Much of that aid is "in kind" support: Aussie staff assisting in various ministries. Provision of the aid depends on meeting benchmarks for reform, but we heard the terms are "easily met." Downer reportedly likes the Scotty Government and wants it to stay in office. Aussie compliments on governance reform -------------- ¶11. (U) At the donor conference, Australia's High Commissioner (resident in Suva) complimented Nauru's significant progress on financial management, governance, and accountability, which can be a "best-practice model" for the region. The Chairman of the Nauru Parliament's Public Accounts Committee described particular "good governance" reforms, some in place, some being prepared for implementation, all aimed to prevent a recurrence of past malfeasance, which the Chairman describe as the "one billion dollar shaft." The Scotty Government removed all MPs from boards of government corporations. That reportedly came as a shock to some who had become used to double-dipping. Constitutional amendments awaiting ratification would establish a leadership code accompanied by a commission to monitor results and a new ombudsman position. A new Director of Audits would be created to report directly to Parliament. Nauru Ministers noted the lack of qualified auditors in small island states and suggested that donors should consider helping the region establish a pool of such auditors to be shared. "Our Airline" and its issues -------------- ¶12. (U) At the donor conference, Transport Minister Keke acknowledged that "Our Airline," with a Boeing 737 being purchased for Nauru on the installment plan by Taiwan, has been struggling. Hoped for buy-in by other Pacific nations like the Solomon Islands and Kiribati has not happened, and Fiji has refused to authorize landing rights for "Our SUVA 00000408 004 OF 004 Airline" service between Nauru and Nadi via Tarawa. "Our Airline" currently flies only once a week on its Pacific route: Brisbane, Honiara, Nauru, Tarawa, and return. But charter business in Australia is picking up and may save the day. Minister Keke reported that a safety audit of the Nauru airport is to take place this year. One issue may be the one fire truck that has serious problems. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) The recently discovered layer of phosphate deposits offers Nauru some hope that it can achieve a relatively sustainable future, a second chance. But successive Nauru governments will need to act responsibly with phosphate revenues, a feat that Nauru politicians have had great difficulty accomplishing in the past. The current Scotty Government seems to have done a reasonable job of addressing fiscal and governance problems. The August 25 election will reveal whether the voters, who have experienced a dramatic lifestyle decline in recent years, will credit the Scotty group for reforms or will exact punishment for being the bearers of bad news, even when past leaders caused the problems. DINGER