EAP DAS DAVIES IN TONGA URGES RAPID DEMOCRATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000224 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM CH TN SUBJECT: EAP DAS DAVIES IN TONGA URGES RAPID DEMOCRATIC REFORM REF: SUVA Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During EAP DAS Davies' April 13-14 visit to Tonga, Prime Minister Sevele reiterated that he and the King are committed to reform. In conversations across the political spectrum, Davies heard various views about the appropriate pace, though most all agreed last November's riot in Nuku'alofa left deep scars that affect people's perspectives. PM Sevele complained about aspects of the Human Rights Report. Davies complimented Sevele and Tonga Defense Service (TDS) Commander Uta'atu on the decision to deploy another platoon to Iraq. Uta'atu left the impression he is becoming very comfortable with the TDS's domestic roles under a continuing state of emergency. Pro-democracy activists are not so happy about that. Tonga's newly appointed reconciliation advisor described his plans to Davies and sought U.S. assistance. Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu described Tonga's severe economic problems, for which he urges political reforms and donor assistance. PM Sevele will travel to Beijing shortly, attempting to seal a T$100 million (US$50 million) soft loan for post-riot reconstruction efforts. Continuing political uncertainties, complicated by the state of emergency, and the severe economic downturn leave a visitor concerned that Tonga will continue to be in crisis for some time to come. End summary. A series of useful meetings -------------- ¶2. (U) EAP DAS Glyn Davies visited Tonga April 13-14. He met with PM Sevele, Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu, Foreign Secretary Tone, newly appointed Reconciliation Advisor to the SIPDIS PM Viliami Afeaki, Commander of the Tonga Defense Service (TDS) BG Uta'atu, pro-democracy members of parliament Akilisi Pohiva and Clive Edwards, pro-democracy activist Viliami Fukofuka, and the Chiefs of Mission for Australia, New Zealand, and China. Davies also visited with Peace Corps Volunteers. King George V was reportedly on a visit to American Samoa. Tonga TV did an interview with Davies that received country-wide coverage on the evening news. PM and King still want reform; but a pace issue -------------- -- ¶3. (C) PM Sevele rose from his sick bed for a meeting at his home that lasted over an hour. Sevele reiterated past statements that he and the King both are committed to democratic reform as quickly as is reasonably possible. Given last November's riot that shook the psyches of most Tongans, Sevele now believes reforms should be discussed and agreed to in the next session of Parliament that begins at the end of May; but the next election, required by the Constitution to be in 2008, should be postponed to 2010, or maybe 2011. Sevele suggested the lead time is necessary for healing wounds, completing criminal cases against riot backers (including pro-democracy leaders),reconstructing Nuku'alofa, and enacting reforms to the constitution. DAS Davies described the USG view that democratic reform should take place as rapidly as possible, given underlying pressures in Tonga that continue to fester. It is up to Tongans to decide the pace, but a three-year delay sounds like a long time. Complaints about the Human Rights Report -------------- ¶4. (C) Sevele raised two complaints about the 2006 Human Rights Report on Tonga. He and advisor Lopeti Senituli disputed the HRR's suggestion that the shut-down of the OBN TV station in the days just before the riot may have been politically motivated. (OBN was the main pro-democracy media channel during parliamentary consideration of National Committee on Political Reform (NCPR) recommendations last year.) Senituli said the shut-down was purely a legal matter between landlord and tenant, and the government played no role. (Comment: Others, including a lawyer involved in the case, are quite sure there was a political motive.) Sevele also said the HRR suggestion that his counter proposal to the NCPR's recommendation was for "more limited reform" was not true. (Comment: The HRR language was accurate as of the time. It appears Sevele has since adjusted his proposal to SUVA 00000224 002 OF 003 make clear it would not allow the King to retain 50% control of parliament.) Compliments about a Tonga deployment to Iraq -------------- ¶5. (C) DAS Davies complimented Sevele on agreeing to the second deployment of a TDS platoon to the "Coalition of the Willing" in Iraq. Davies noted the significant U.S. military assistance that is flowing to Tonga to assist that mission. Sevele's body language indicated he remains uncomfortable with the potential political ramifications if there are casualties, but he did accept the compliment. Later, in a meeting with TDS Commander Uta'atu, Davies reiterated the praise. Uta'atu noted that the TDS has benefited greatly over the years from its relationship with the U.S. Contributing to international peacekeeping by deploying to Iraq is an appropriate response. Uta'atu told Davies he is looking to expand the TDS within the next couple of years from 450 to over 700, more than a 75% increase, in order to meet expanding needs at home and abroad. State of emergency; police ineptitude -------------- ¶6. (C) Sevele and Uta'atu both proposed that Tonga's state of emergency declared after the November riot must remain. The Privy Council extended it for another month on April 13. Uta'atu noted that the visible presence of his troops in the community is down considerably but he sees it important for the TDS to be able to return to the streets instantly if trouble arises. Both Sevele and Uta'atu claimed that the Tongan public want the state of emergency to continue. The Tonga Police did a survey of 61 village leaders and 53 of them said "yes." We queried if village leaders are entirely neutral on the subject. Sevele and Uta'atu both criticized the Tonga Police for being passive during the riot and for being ill-trained and inefficient in general. Sevele said discussions continue with Australia and New Zealand to improve the Police, including by perhaps bringing in outside advisors for the senior ranks. Pro-democracy activist views -------------- ¶7. (C) In meetings with pro-democracy activists, including MPs Pohiva and Edwards, both of whom are under indictment on sedition charges for the November riot, DAS Davies heard a very different story. The activists do not believe the state of emergency remains necessary. In fact, they think it and alleged TDS abuses under it are adding to public discontent. The decree also keeps people from meeting to discuss political issues. Pohiva and Edwards both deny planning, instigating, or participating in the riot. They both trust the Tonga courts and believe they will be acquitted. Pohiva acknowledges that the riot has left deep wounds, which may mean implementing reforms and holding the next election should be postponed from 2008 for a year or two. Edwards seemed more feisty, arguing that reform is necessary now. Delay could be explosive. Seeking reconciliation -------------- ¶8. (C) New advisor on reconciliation Afeati is a U.S.-citizen Mormon who has lived in Utah for the past decade. He, rightly, sees building bridges across the post-riot political divide to be very difficult, but also essential. His aim is to orchestrate gatherings and media events leading up to a major reconciliation ceremony on the riot's one-year anniversary in November. When Afeati asked if U.S. assistance might be possible, Davies was noncommittal. PM Sevele acknowledged the need for reconciliation, but it was obvious he remains deeply affected by the riot that destroyed his grocery store and threatened his family. His focus remains much more on prosecuting the wrong-doers -- and he is convinced several pro-democracy MPs are among them -- than on rebuilding relationships. Sevele is a long-time pro-democracy activist placed in office by the King. Sevele sees himself as working within the system to gain reform goals. Pohiva, Sevele's old friend, sees him as having sold out. Timing reform and donor assistance -------------- ¶9. (C) Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu seemed one of the few SUVA 00000224 003 OF 003 Tonga leaders able to maintain a balanced perspective. Davies was told by others that the Minister's stock has risen, post-riot, because the PM realizes he needs sound, neutral advice. 'Utoikamanu is convinced that political reform is essential and must be implemented as quickly as possible. He is frustrated by the PM's current unwillingness to push ahead. Tonga's economy has severe problems and desperately needs a stable, reformed environment in which to recover. Outside assistance is also essential. 'Utoikamanu described a useful donor meeting with Australia, New Zealand, and the Asian Development bank at the end of March. Those sources will help, but the needs for reconstructing Nuku'alofa's central business district, gutted in the riot, are much greater. The China factor: aid; Taiwan; local citizens -------------- ¶10. (C) The donor Tonga is really looking to is China, wanting to tap into assistance Premier Wen promoted during a regional summit in Nadi a year ago. PM Sevele is due to travel to Beijing shortly to attempt to seal a soft loan for T$100 million (US$50 million). Sevele is hoping China will allow some of the aid to be non-tied, even perhaps to permit some of it to channel through commercial banks to private entities (here Sevele's own commercial loss comes to mind) for reconstruction. China's Ambassador to Tonga, Hu Yeshun, confirmed to Davies that negotiations are under way. He declined to describe the details. Hu said he knows of no Taiwan representation in Tonga, but he acknowledged he is ever on the alert. Around 500 Chinese live in Tonga, many of them now Tonga citizens under a passport-sale scheme from the 1990s. The riot targeted Chinese-owned retail shops, sending more than 300 ethnic-Chinese into the PRC embassy compound. China evacuated around 200 by air, though Hu said some are now returning. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Just about everyone in Tonga, except perhaps Minister 'Utoikamanu, has deep scars from the riot that will be a long time healing. When Akilisi Pohiva, a fervent reformer for 20 years, sees the need for a cooling off period, it may well be necessary. However, we got the distinct impression that PM Sevele is looking to stretch reform out longer than needed, almost in the Fiji interim-government mode. It is impossible for USG visitors to gauge just how much grass-roots frustration is percolating -- even a group of Peace Corps Volunteers living at the village level had varying views -- but our sense is that the TDS domestic role under the state of emergency is a worrying irritation. A danger from the present situation is that the TDS and its Commander are becoming very comfortable with their domestic roles. BG Uta'atu acknowledged that his troops are trained for combat, not for policing the streets; but he clearly thinks the army is contributing to a better Tonga by providing a reliable, hard-edged security service in sharp contrast to the police. People generally respect Uta'atu and believe he understands his subordinate role to royal and/or civilian leadership; however, for now, the civilian leadership is encouraging military roles that may slow the ability of reform elements to make their case. ¶12. (U) DAS Davies has cleared this message. DINGER