PACIFIC FORUM AND FIJI, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000155 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC FJ XV SUBJECT: PACIFIC FORUM AND FIJI, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS REF: A. SUVA 150 ¶B. CANBERRA 363 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Fiji interim Foreign Minister Nailatikau has been seeking support from Pacific-island colleagues in the lead-up to the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) ministerial meeting in Vanuatu that will consider an Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report on Fiji. With some island leaders becoming "reticent" but with Australia and New Zealand pressing for results, the meeting could be interesting. PNG PM Somare reportedly remains upset with interim PM Bainimarama, though not with interim FM Nailatikau. The PNG High Commissioner in Suva, at least, believes the ministerial will be a "moment of truth" for island leaders' commitment to democratic principles. Outcomes of the meeting might be to institute a Forum-Fiji working group to refine time lines for a return to democracy and/or various carrots to accelerate election preparations. Some rumors in Suva suggest Bainimarama may, before the meeting, rescind the state of emergency or make other cosmetic moves. We'll see. "Uncertainty" describes the pre-ministerial mood. End summary. Fiji encouraging reticence among Pacific leaders -------------- --- ¶2. (C) Next Friday's PIF ministerial re Fiji has the region's attention. Per ref A, PIF Secretary General Greg Urwin and his staff have sensed a "reticence" among regional leaders about the Fiji topic. Urwin's impression is that the several weeks it has taken to arrange the Vanuatu meeting after the PIF Eminent Persons Group (EPG) issued its report have given Fiji interim Foreign Minister Nailatikau the opportunity to woo his colleagues. Nailatikau has a long diplomatic history in the region - he was Fiji's roving Ambassador to the Pacific in the 1990s - and he has close family ties to Tonga's royalty. Tonga PM Sevele seems clearly to be tilting toward Fiji. With Australia and New Zealand clearly pressing for a rapid return to democratic governance but with a number of other PIF members seemingly not wanting to create waves with their neighbor Fiji, Urwin predicts an exciting meeting. PNG's Somare to Fiji: no MSG signing; but golf OK? -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) PNG High Commissioner to Fiji Peter Eafeare tells us PM Somare remains very unhappy with Bainimarama's coup. Thus, Fiji (Bainimarama) will not be allowed to sign the Melanesian Spearhead Group "constitution" with other MSG heads of government in Vanuatu on March 23. However, Somare has agreed that Nailatikau can be present to observe the event and have conversations. Somare will fly to Vanuatu on Air New Guinea's inaugural flight to service the Moresby-Honiara-Port Vila-Nadi route. Somare tentatively plans to continue on to Nadi to participate in an annual Fiji-PNG golf challenge with Nailatikau. Eafeare has argued that the golf tournament is inappropriate given the Fiji coup and has asked Somare "please don't attend;" but it is not clear if Somare has agreed. (Comment: Ref B's report of an Aussie belief that PNG, Solomon Islands, and Fiji leaders have formed an "unholy alliance" against good governance does not seem to jibe with Eafeare's depiction of at least the Somare-Bainimarama strained relationship.) Ministerial a "reality check" for Pacific leaders -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Eafeare said his advice to Port Moresby is that the PIF ministerial in Vanuatu is a "reality check" for Pacific nations' basic principles. It is a "moment of truth," and regional leaders need to back up the EPG report. Eafeare is certain Fiji, itself, leaked the EPG report, and leaked a Bainimarama letter to Somare decrying the EPG leak, as part of a campaign to portray the report as the product of Australia and New Zealand connivance. For the ministerial, Forum leaders are not yet decided on procedures. Presumably, Fiji's representatives will be allowed an intervention to provide the interim government's views of the EPG report. Thereafter, will Fiji be allowed to remain in the room? Since the PIF has not yet suspended Fiji, Eafeare figures Fiji reps retain a right to be present; however, other leaders may suggest to Fiji reps that it would be best to leave so other PIF leaders can freely discuss next steps. SUVA 00000155 002 OF 002 Time lines and carrots -------------- ¶5. (C) Eafeare figures the key issues in Vanuatu will be the differing EPG and Bainimarama time lines for a return to democracy in Fiji, and the EPG recommendation for Bainimarama and the RFMF to remove themselves from politics. Eafeare thinks ministers may take up Bainimarama's suggestion of a Fiji/Forum working group to "further refine" the EPG time line. The ministers may also offer assistance to fast-track a census, electoral-system reforms, etc, with the aim to see an election within 18 months. The ministers might also offer help to investigate allegations of corruption by providing non-Fijian experts. Eafeare said PNG's Foreign Minister was inclined to skip the Vanuatu meeting, but probably has been convinced to attend. Eafeare will be present, as well. Might Fiji sweeten the pot? -------------- ¶6. (C) Fiji may be preparing to make a move or two to influence the atmosphere in Vanuatu. Eafeare said interim PermSec in the Fiji Prime Ministerial office, Parmesh Chand, indicated Fiji's state of emergency will be lifted next week. (Note: we have heard similar rumors, including from Bainimarama, several times before with no actual change in the state of emergency, but one never knows.) Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) There is considerable uncertainty about how the Vanuatu meeting will unfold. A public statement by Australian FM Downer that suggested his government was calling, if not orchestrating, the meeting, and a continuation of Australian and New Zealand sharp exchanges with Bainimarama have undoubtedly rankled some island leaders who view the Aussies as unnecessarily patronizing. Still, the EPG team, which concluded it had been previously misled by the Fiji MFA and which put forth a strong report, has influenced leader thinking. Bainimarama has tried to color the EPG as an Aussie/Kiwi puppet, but Vanuatu chairman Kilman with his PNG, Samoa, and Aussie co-members made their own judgments, and presumably island leaders are aware of that. It is not surprising that a number of island leaders, who never like public confrontation with colleagues, are feeling "reticent." With all that, PIF SecGen Urwin's sense of uncertainty about the ministerial's outcome mirrors our own. DINGER