FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 21, 2007: INTERIM GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000120 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017 TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR ASEC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 21, 2007: INTERIM GOVERNMENT SAYS ELECTIONS IN 2010 (MAYBE); EPG REPORT RELEASED REF: SUVA 108 Classified By: Ambassador Dinger, per 1.4 (B,D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Commodore Bainimarama announced February 20 that the interim cabinet has agreed to a plan to restore democracy to Fiji "as early as 2010." Bainimarama says at least three and a half years will be required to have a census, redraw election boundaries, and prepare for a general election. He said a "mid-term" review would take place in late 2009 to ensure that preconditions for the election are on track, apparently including a healthy economy and progress in his "clean-up campaign." Bainimarama's statement came one day after the Pacific Island Forum's Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report on Fiji was leaked to the press. The report (per reftel) calls for Bainimarama to step down as interim PM, for all human rights violations to cease, for the Chief Justice to be re-installed, and for elections to take place in 18-24 months, if not sooner. The interim government made no public comments on the report, saying it would respond directly to the Forum Foreign Ministers. End summary. Bainimarama's "Roadmap" To Democracy - Elections in 2010 at the Earliest -------------- ¶2. (U) In a statement February 20, Commodore Bainimarama said elections and a full restoration of parliamentary democracy would take place "as early as 2010." The road map to elections described by Bainimarama requires the following steps: --The Bureau of Statistics will hold a census in 2007 and ¶2008. It will take 12-15 months to complete. --A Boundaries Commission will prepare new constituency boundaries to be used in the election. The Boundaries Commission work will take six months, and is likely to be completed in 2009. --The Elections Office will need up to 12 months to prepare for a general election. This preparatory work will be done between 2008 and 2009. --The government will develop a new system of polling, voting, vote counting and declaration of results. This will take 9-12 months to complete (no specific timeframe given). --A mid-term review will take place in "late 2009" to ensure that required tasks mandated by the President are on track. If necessary, the timeframe for elections could be adjusted at that time. ¶3. (U) Bainimarama said a review of the Constitution and the "fight against corruption" will be carried out in tandem with the roadmap noted above. In addition, the three-plus years of the "roadmap" will give the economy adequate time to recover, so that the government "will be able to fund and sustain the required cost of a general election in Fiji." The review of the Constitution will include preparations to end Fiji's race-based elections to its House of Representatives. Bainimarama acknowledged, however, that such amendments to the Constitution can only take place after a Parliament has been seated. Comment: Stretching Out the Election Timetable -------------- - ¶4. (SBU) The Bainimarama timetable includes so many conditions and caveats that we find it highly unlikely that elections would be held by 2010. The timetable presupposes completion of the "clean-up campaign," the return of a healthy, growing economy, plus the changes (or preparations for changes) noted above to the election system and the Constitution. Moreover, the late 2009 "mid-term" review gives the Commander an opportunity to stretch the process out to whatever length of time is to his liking. Eminent Persons Group Report Released -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Pacific Island Forum (PIF) EPG report was leaked to the media late February 19 (some sources say the leaker was the Fiji Ministry of Foreign Affairs). The EPG report reviews the background and underlying causes of the coup, and recommends steps to move Fiji back to a democratic SUVA 00000120 002 OF 003 form of government. The report states there is a general consensus among the individuals and groups with which it met that the overthrow of the Qarase government was unlawful, that the State of Emergency is unwarranted, that the judiciary and the Fiji Human Rights Commission have been compromised and have lost much of their independence, and that the interim regime's claim it enjoys widespread popular support is not backed up by the facts. EPG Recommends that Bainimarama Step Aside; Calls for Elections Within 18-24 Months -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The report concludes with recommendations to the Pacific Island Forum Foreign Ministers. These are: i. A firm restatement from Foreign Ministers that the coup was unconstitutional and is unacceptable. ii. Ministers call for the RFMF to withdraw from involvement in the interim government (IG) as soon as possible, through the following steps: --The RFMF returns to the barracks; --Bainimarama vacates the interim PM position; and --The State of Emergency is lifted. iii. Ministers call on the IG to restrict its activities and take the following actions: --The IG upholds the Constitution. Interim decrees are restricted to matters necessary to meet the basic requirements of the community (a caretaker role); --The IG respects domestic and international obligations and takes into full account the international community's views on the importance of democracy and constitutionality; --The IG and the RFMF cease interference with the judiciary and reinstate Chief Justice Fatiaki to his office; and --The IG and RFMF ensure citizens are free to seek legal redress for coup and post-coup actions against them. The IG and RFMF must be prepared to comply with any decisions of the court in this regard. iv. Ministers call on the IG to commit to a roadmap to elections, as follows: --The IG agrees to a firm timeframe for a national election within 18-24 months, if not before; and --The IG delinks the election timetable from its clean-up campaign, except in areas directly related to the election process. v. Ministers call on the IG and the RFMF to immediately cease all human rights abuses. vi. If the IG commits to steps to implement elections and cease human rights violations, the Forum agrees to a phased package of assistance including: --Financial and technical support for the election process; --Financial and technical assistance for the establishment of a credible and independent anti-corruption commission; and --Assistance to restore the independence of the judiciary. No Comments from Interim Government; Scorn, Praise From Other Quarters -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In a press statement, the interim government said it would not publicly comment on the report "as a matter of policy, procedure, and protocol." The IG said the report is being studied by relevant ministries and departments, and the IG will directly inform the Forum Foreign Ministers of its views. Fiji Human Rights Commission (FHRC) Director Shaista Shameem bitterly attacked the report for its negative comments on the Commission. She attacked two of the four eminent persons - retired PNG Chief Justice Sir Arnold Amet, and retired Commander of the Australian Defense Forces, General Peter Cosgrove. Shameem said Amet had a conflict of interest, because he is a board member of the Pacific Center for Public Integrity, an organization that has criticized the FHRC. She alleged that Cosgrove was involved in human rights abuses in Australia in 2001. A Fiji Labor Party spokesperson called the EPG report "full of nonsense," and advised the EPG to "go to hell." Most NGO representatives, on the other hand, welcomed the report, as did editorials in the Fiji Times and Fiji Sun newspapers. Ousted Prime Minister Qarase SUVA 00000120 003 OF 003 praised the report and urged the interim government to carefully consider the proposals. Comment - EPG Report A Positive Step, But Is Bainimarama Listening? -------------- ¶8. (C) The EPG report is a sensible, well-argued document. We don't agree with all its recommendations, especially the willingness to wait 18-24 months for elections. In our view, elections could be held much sooner, even with a census. Nevertheless, the report provides a reasonable basis to move forward if Bainimarama would adopt its recommendations in good faith. Unfortunately, all indications are that, at least for the present, Bainimarama will not find the EPG roadmap palatable. He is intent to remain in control, and he does not trust anyone else to do a "clean-up" of Fiji. The drawn-out election timetable Bainimarama unveiled February 20 gives little reason to think he will pay any more than lip service to any of the EPG recommendations. Thus, it remains necessary to keep the pressure on Bainimarama and the interim government. The statement by the State Department Press Spokesman February 20 rejecting Bainimarama's three-plus year timetable and reiterating our call for a return to democracy ASAP struck a solid note. DINGER