GOLKAR'S POLITICAL MACHINE APPARENTLY FAILS IN SOUTH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000072 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, DRL/PHD, INL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KISL KCOR ID SUBJECT: GOLKAR'S POLITICAL MACHINE APPARENTLY FAILS IN SOUTH SULAWESI REF: A. SURABAYA 57 ¶B. SURABAYA 39 SURABAYA 00000072 001.2 OF 002 This message is sensitive but unclassified please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Consulate General Surabaya Pol/Econ Officer, Pol/Econ Assistant and two Political Officers from Embassy Jakarta observed the first direct gubernatorial elections in South Sulawesi Province on November 5. The apparent defeat of incumbent Amir Syam by his Vice Governor Syahrul Yasin Limpo shows that the much vaunted Golkar political machine can be beaten -- even if by less than one percent of the vote. The result may also signal a dent in Jusuf Kalla's previously unquestioned supremacy in South Sulawesi. Syahrul's star has risen very quickly in South Sulawesi politics, and his apparent election as governor suggests he may represent a local power center capable of challenging Kalla's network. It is likely that the loser will challenge the results after official results are announced November 16. End Summary. Syahrul Yasin Limpo Claims Victory -------------- ¶2. (SBU) While the official results of November 5 gubernatorial election in South Sulawesi will not be announced until November 16, local media reports that challengers Syahrul Yasin Limpo and Agus Arifin Nu'mang have defeated incumbent Amir Syam and his running mate Mansyur Ramly by a narrow margin (less than 1%). Syahrul's apparent victory suggests that Golkar's political machine failed to rally voters despite Vice President Jusuf Kalla's well-publicized call to reelect Amir Syam and Mansyur Ramli, Kalla's brother in law (Ref A). Syahrul, the current Vice Governor, and his running mate, Agus Arifin Nu'mang, house speaker of the South Sulawesi DPRD and former Golkar Secretary, received support from National Mandate Party (PAN),Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P),and a selection of smaller parties. As predicted by observers, the voters took advantage of the opportunity offered by the first direct elections to vote for their preferred candidates rather than follow party commands. ¶3. (SBU) According to press reports November 13, with 22 of 23 regencies/cities results confirmed, of 3.8 million votes cast, Syahrul Yasin Limpo and Agus Arifin Nu'mang received 1,431,544 votes; Amin Syman and Mansyur Ramly received 1,405,144 votes; and Abdul Aziz Qahhar Mudzakkar and Mubyl Handaling were a distant third with 749,042 -- a margin of victory of just 0.7%. The Chairman of South Sulawesi election commission (KPU) refused to comment on the press reports but told ConGen Surabaya that the KPU would announce the results after completing a complete count and "recapitulation" of results from the regencies/cities on November 14. On November 16, the KPU would officially announce the results and appoint the new governor and vice governor of South Sulawesi. What Does It Mean? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Wahyuddin Halim, a lecturer at the Islamic Univesity of Alauddin in Makassar, told the Consulate November 13 that most observers believe that Syahrul won. Wahyuddin observed that Amir Syam's defeat was a failure of Golkar's political machine. He explained that Golkar was overconfident and relied too heavily on a bureaucratic network with a long tradition of corruption. Crediting the efforts of Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) cadres rather than Golkar cadres for the majority of votes for Amir Syam, Wahyuddin said Golkar's campaign funds were corrupted at the kabupaten (regency) level. Wahyuddin added that many observers saw the results as a blow to Jusuf Kalla's supremacy in South Sulawesi. ¶5. (SBU) Commenting on Syahrul's victory, Wahyuddin said the results were both positive and negative. Syahrul is supported by a younger generation, suggesting that his administration will be more dynamic, creative, open to new ideas, and less bureaucratic. Judhariksawan, a lecturer in the Law Faculty at Hasanuddin University, agreed that Syahrul's victory was positive. He noted that as Vice Governor Syahrul played an important role in the administration, including in the policy making process, while Amin Syam's role appeared limited to ceremonial functions. Wahyuddin cautioned, however, that because of the number of parties and factions which supported Syahrul's candidacy, power sharing may become a serious issue for Syahrul's administration. ¶6. (SBU) With both Amin Syam and Syahrul claiming victory and SURABAYA 00000072 002.2 OF 002 the margin of victory razor thin, it is likely that the final results will be contested by the losing ticket. Amin Syam's supporters will likely challenge the votes in the Gowa regency, given that Syahrul was the former regent of Gowa. Similarly, should Amin Syam win, Syahrul will likely challenge the votes in the Bone regency, the home area of Amin Syam. Some observers have also speculated that Jusuf Kalla will push the KPU to investigate the results should Syahrul be declared the victor. MCCLELLAND