A VOLCANO-SIDE, AIR CONDITIONED TENT: SBY'S INSPECTION TOUR

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000062 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS AID FOR OFDA DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS JAKARTA FOR AID (NAKATSUMA) BANGKOK FOR RDM ASIA/OFDA (BARTON) USAID/OFDA FOR RTHAYER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PGOV ECON ID SUBJECT: A VOLCANO-SIDE, AIR CONDITIONED TENT: SBY'S INSPECTION TOUR OF MT. KELUD REF: A) SURABAYA 58; B) SURABAYA 61 This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) President Yudhoyono (SBY) spent the night of October 24 in an air conditioned tent in a refugee camp near Mt. Kelud in East Java according to media reports. The Center Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation in Bandung had raised the warning level for eruption to the highest level possible on October 16 (Ref A). This important institution advises the President on all matters related to geological threats. According to one official, the threat of an eruption is decreasing. However the volcano's unpredictability and official fears of creating a false sense of security could delay lowering the eruption threat level. ¶2. (SBU) The President was accompanied by the Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie, Cabinet Secretary Sudi Silalahi, Minister for Social Affairs Bachtiar Chamsyah, Police Chief Gen. Sutanto, Presidential Spokesman Andi Mallarangeng and East Java Governor Imam Utomo. Official news services described the visit as an effort to encourage refugees already outside the 10km danger zone to remain there, and persuade villagers within the 10 km danger zone to depart for the camps. The Indonesian Red Cross, local officials and the Indonesian Army have all struggled to convince affected residents to evacuate with widely varying levels of success. Residents have expressed little confidence in the ability of police, or anyone, to safeguard their homes from thieves during their time in the camps. ¶3. (SBU) An Indonesian expert (please protect) told us privately that "all parameters have been decreasing after October 16, including the water temperature in the crater and deformation. We won't see an eruption in the near future, but if the warning level is lowered there is still the possibility of a quick change in the volcano. Only God knows when it'll really erupt." ¶4. (SBU) Following his visit to Mt. Kelud and environs, President Yudhoyono will travel by helicopter to visit the victims of another disaster, the Lapindo mud flow near Sidoarjo. While the Coordinating Minister for Health and Welfare Aburizal Bakrie met with refugees of potential lava flows from Mt. Kelud, he is reportedly unlikely to accompany the President and brave the ire of refugees from the continuing disaster in Sidoarjo (Ref B). The Minister's Bakrie Group had a controlling interest in the corporation implicated in the Sidoarjo mud flow disaster: Lapindo Brantas. MCCLELLAND