EAST JAVA MUD FLOW UPDATE: SUBSIDENCE CAUSING DAM BREACHES

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000061 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ESC/IEC DEPT FOR DS/IP/EAP DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUD FLOW UPDATE: SUBSIDENCE CAUSING DAM BREACHES REF: SURBAYA 56 ¶1. Two earthen dams separating lagoons of mud have been breached at the Lapindo Mud Flow site according to local press reports. Near midnight on Sunday 21 October, Dam 25 collapsed and underwent two quick repairs. Mud from the breach flowed from one holding pond into another at the former site of Jatirejo village. While this breach did not flow outside the current containment, recent multiple failures of dams there suggest a continuing problem with dam stability and no single definitive cause, according to sources at the site. ¶2. Sidoarjo Mud Disaster Management Board spokesman Achmad Zulkarnain told the Jawa Pos that serious subsidence beneath Dams 24 and 25 started on 21 October causing mud to flow rapidly out of a crack 40cm wide and five meters long. The Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) started emergency repairs in the early morning hours of Monday 22 October, but the repairs failed. The dam collapsed again at 5:30 AM and the mud poured uncontrollably through the crack into the adjacent Jatirejo pond. The outer wall of this pond is immediately adjacent to the railway and the main road linking the far east of Java to the rest of the island. ¶3. BPLS spokesman Achmad Zulkarnain said subsidence is also causing cracking beneath Dams 42, 43 and 47. He speculated that the ruptures might be exacerbated by earthquakes related to the anticipated eruption of the Mount Kelud volcano 90 kms to the south. However Consulate Surabaya's discussion with BPLS personnel suggests that lack of personnel during the recent Lebaran holiday likely led to a decline in dam maintenance and ability to repair breaches at the site (reftel). Zulkarnain told the media that BPLS cannot guarantee the safety of the dams because their strength depends on geological conditions. In order to anticipate and counteract the leaks, BPLS can only build surrounding secondary "counter-wide" dams around the breaches. ¶4. Mr. Handoko Teguh, the head of mud flow mitigation working group of BPLS, told Consulate General Surabaya today that a new dam system entirely enclosing the village of Renokenogo is being constructed adjacent to the breach at Dam 42. This breach caused the inundation and evacuation of the village (reftel). The dam will form a new outer retaining wall for the mud flow to the north of the site. Although some residents of the village refuse to move from their homes, construction of the dam continues apace and has already reached a height of 4 meters and a length of 100 meters. MCCLELLAND