EAST JAVA: LAPINDO MUD FLOW UPDATE: DAM BREACHED, SECONDARY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000056 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ESC/IEC DEPT FOR DS/IP/EAP DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: LAPINDO MUD FLOW UPDATE: DAM BREACHED, SECONDARY ROAD COVERED IN MUD, ECONOMIC COSTS MOUNTING REF: A. A) JAKARTA 2771 ¶B. B) SURABAYA 40 SURABAYA 00000056 001.2 OF 002 Portions of this message are sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Hot mud flowing through a breach of dam 42 at the mud flow site has covered a secondary road linking Sidoarjo and Malang and entered houses and schools of a nearby village. Efforts to repair the breach have been unsuccessful and at least 10 other earthen dams are considered to be in "critical condition." Officials responsible for managing the mud flow told local papers that BPLS (the Sidoarajo Mudflow Disaster Management Board) will attempt to channel the mud north, into existing mud ponds and away from the village. BPLS's efforts are hampered by a shortage of workers during the extended Lebaran holiday. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On the evening of October 14, dam 42 near Renokengo village gave away, allowing hot mud to flow across the secondary road linking Sidoarjo and Malang and into houses and schools. According to newspaper reports, two days before, workers had noticed a 1 cm crack in the dam, but they decided that the small crack was not a threat and took no further action. A BPLS public relations officer described dam 42 as 11.3 meters high and 3 meters wide, with the damage affecting 10 meters of the dam. Sandbag repairs temporarily halted the mud's flow, but the dam collapsed a second time on the afternoon of October 15 and mud continues to flow uninterrupted. The road will remain closed indefinitely, until BPLS can determine how to redirect the mud into existing mud ponds. 10 DAMS IN CRITICAL CONDITION -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Handoko Teguh, the head of mud flow mitigation working group of BPLS, told Consulate staff that land around dam 42 had subsided 70 cm. He added that BPLS records report 2 cm subsidence per day since May, and predicted that subsidence rates would increase in the coming days. Handoko admitted that 10 other dykes were in "critical condition" as a result of subsidence, with mud levels reaching only 5-10 cms from the top of the earthen dams. He added that there are indications that the land subsidence is the result of cracks occurring under the dams. Handoko explained that BPLS is having difficulty repairing the breach at dam 42 or taking action to patch other cracks because many of the workers who normally are on duty to prepare sandbags are on leave until October 22 for the Lebaran holiday. (Note: Soffian Hadi, the BPLS official charged with managing the site, is currently on Lebaran leave.) ¶4. (U) On October 17, Jawa Pos reported that BPLS was attempting to channel the mud north, toward mud ponds that are designed to handle the overflowing mud. The area to the north is reportedly lower than land toward the Porong River, the primary outlet for the mud, in theory making redirecting the mud somewhat easier. Workers have reportedly suggested that BPLS install additional pipes to channel the mud more easily. According to a BPLS public relations officer, it was unclear when new pipes could be installed. In the meantime, mud will continue to flow across the road and into the village. ECONOMIC COSTS MOUNTING -------------- ¶5. (U) With the toll road permanently under mud, and now a secondary road unusable, traffic on the main road through Porong town has increased yet again, putting more pressure on local shippers, businesses, and residents. Traffic is being rerouted onto tertiary roads through the villages of Glagaharum, Kebohuyang, and Besuki. The mud reportedly inundated homes and a local Islamic school (madrasah) run by the Khalid Bin Walid Foundation. Two or eight classrooms, which normally accommodate 350 students, now contain approximately 20 cms of mud. According to the foundation's owner, the school is listed in the areas eligible to receive compensation, but the owners have yet to receive any money ¶6. (U) Kompas reported October 17 that economic losses in 2006 alone totaled Rp 13 trillion (USD 144 million). According to Abdul Mongid, an economic observer of the Surabaya Banking Academy, detours have forced exporters to pay an additional cost SURABAYA 00000056 002.2 OF 002 of Rp 1 million (USD 111) per container, which translates into additional costs of Rp 1 billion (USD 111 thousand) per day. The Kompas article added that 22 factories have closed, with total loses of Rp 334 billion (USD 37.1 million),and an estimated 127.29 hectares of agricultural land has been destroyed. These numbers do not include the financial costs associated with declining property values, the closure of hotels in Probolinggo, Trawas, and Pandaan, and growing unemployment. MCCLELLAND