SWEDISH MFA POLDIR ON GEORGIA MISSILE INVESTIGATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000988

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SW MOPS GG
SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA POLDIR ON GEORGIA MISSILE INVESTIGATION

REF: A. TBILISI 2025 AND PREVIOUS

B. MCDOWELL/SILVERMAN AUG 13 EMAIL

C. BRYZA/SILVERMAN AUG 13 EMAIL

D. CHRISTENSEN/BRYZA AUG 14 PHONE CALL

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert Silverman, reason 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Charge met Aug 14 with MFA Political Director Olof
Skoog to discuss Sweden's role in the Georgia missile
investigation. Skoog was joined by Foreign Minister Bildt's
Staff Director Karin Olofsdotter. Skoog said the missile
incident had touched Swedish reflexes to respond when a
larger country affects a smaller neighbor. Skoog said he had
received information that the Independent Intergovernmental
Expert Group (IIEG) was prepared to issue its report. He
said the report, which he had not seen, would conclude that
1) it was possible to identify the missile that was fired,
but 2) it was not possible to identify the aircraft from
which it was fired, and 3) the aircraft appeared to come from
Russian airspace. Olofsdotter, who had just finished talking
with the Swedish Defense Ministry, said the plan was for all
eight experts from the four countries participating in the
IIEG (U.S., Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania) to sign the report
August 14, which would then be submitted to the OSCE. Skoog
said Swedish Colonel Matts Helgesson, who is acting head of
the IIEG, had informed the MFA that the U.S. experts in the
IIEG had been uncertain of their authority to sign the report.


2. (c) Charge thanked the Swedes for taking a leadership
role and indicated U.S. interest in supporting that role. He
noted our surprise that the investigation was already
concluded and asked whether this would be an interim report,
adding that we understood other countries may be interested
in participating in the investigation. Charge also noted
that we understood (ref B) that there was interest in
presenting the report to the UNSC. Skoog noted that it would
be important to consider how a prior referral of the report
to the OSCE might affect a later attempt to refer the matter
to the UNSC. Skoog asked for U.S. views on whether or not to
submit the report to the OSCE.


3. (c) During the course of the meeting Olofsdotter took
several calls from Tbilisi regarding the report. She
received information on -- and expressed doubt about -- a
proposal to have four identical reports signed separately by
the representatives of the four countries participating in
the IIEG.


4. (c) Comment and action request: There is confusion, at
least in Stockholm, over the scope and use of the IIEG
report. If the investigation is to be continued, expanded,
and elevated to involve a political level (i.e., a possible
role for a high-level official from Sweden),this needs to be
made clear. We do not think Sweden is set on an early
report; the MFA seemed as surprised as we were that the IIEG
thinks it can wrap up its work so quickly. If we make clear
that a more comprehensive investigation is needed, they may
agree. We would appreciate guidance to relay to Skoog and
the MFA.
SILVERMAN