IRAQ AMBASSADORS' FORUM - MAY 17, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 072784 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID IR IZ MOPS PREL SY SUBJECT: IRAQ AMBASSADORS' FORUM - MAY 17, 2007 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Political Military Bureau hosted an Iraq Ambassadors' Forum on May 17. Ambassador David Satterfield, the Senior Advisor to the Secretary of State and Coordinator for Iraq, briefed on the successful launching event of the International Compact with Iraq (ICI) and the subsequent Expanded Neighbors Ministerial Conference held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on May 3-4. He also discussed the responsibilities of the Government of Iraq and its neighbors (including Syria and Iran) in ensuring progress in Iraq. END SUMMARY. -------------- INTRODUCTION -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Political Military (PM) Bureau hosted an Iraq Ambassadors' Forum on May 17 to discuss the outcome of the recent conferences in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Ambassadors from all contributing coalition nations, NATO, G-5, Iraq, and its neighbors were invited, with 40 representatives attending. ¶3. (SBU) After a brief introduction by PM Deputy Assistant Secretary Michael Coulter, Ambassador Satterfield noted that SIPDIS the ICI and Expanded Neighbors Ministerial are two sides of the same coin: an effort to foster a more substantive dialogue between Iraq and its neigbhors as well as the entire region and international community. It is important for everyone to have an accurate sense of what the Government of Iraq (GOI) is doing as it seeks to address the major political, economic, and security issues it faces. Ambassador Satterfield stressed that Iraq needs the support of its neighbors and the international community, politically and economically. -------------- THE INTERNATIONAL COMPACT WITH IRAQ -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The ministerial launch of the ICI is a product of more than a year of hard work by Iraq, its neighbors, and the international community. It is an exceptional document, laying out a road map of changes that will make Iraq an economically liberal state based on free trade. Ultimately, these changes depend on the political and security situations as well. The ICI is a contract between the Iraqi government and its people, who need and expect the support of Iraq's neighbors and international partners. ¶5. (SBU) Ambassador Satterfield noted that significant pledges had been made at the ICI launch, including $686 �00A;million in grants and loans. On a particularly positive note, Saudi Arabia offered forgiveness on 80% of Iraq's debt to Saudi Arabia ($15.4 billion),meeting Paris Club levels. This pledge, a product of negotiations with Saudi counterparts, will be finalized in the coming months. It is essential that Iraq receive such public displays of support. The ability of the GOI to provide jobs to its people is a consequence of economic development that such support will enable. -------------- ECONOMIC TASKS FOR THE GOI -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While the GOI must bear primary responsibility for its own budget execution, it does need help. Ambassador Satterfield reminded his audience of the oft-cited World Bank estimate that approximately 100 billion dollars were needed for Iraq's reconstruction. Iraq needs technical expertise from its international partners as well. Key to progress is the approval of a comprehensive package of hydrocarbon reforms. This will provide for all Iraqis, whoever and wherever they may be, both now and in the future because 90% of Iraq's current income is in the petroleum sector. Agriculture is a promising area for future development, however. Ambassador Satterfield noted that many had heard the refrain that the hydrocarbons package was imminent. The legislation should have been passed in March but work is still needed and the United States is working with the central government and Kurdish leaders to ensure that a good law is passed. All of the more than 60 members present at the ministerial launch of the ICI were very positive in their remarks towards Iraq. There were no dissenters to the belief that a stable, economically prosperous Iraq is in the best interest of everyone. STATE 00072784 002 OF 003 -------------- NEIGHBORS MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Neighbors Ministerial represents the other side of the coin. Very positive statements were made by all parties at the conference except one: Iran chose to focus on what it termed "the occupation" as the source of all evil in Iraq. Ambassador Satterfield noted that everyone must recognize that the GOI faces increasing skepticism about the ability of the Prime Minister and the government to move the nation forward in a non-sectarian fashion. Everyone must see some movement on both the economic and political fronts. Only this can overcome the deep, over-abiding reserve on the part of all Iraq's neighbors about the GOI's ability to unite its people and move forward. The Ministerial presented an excellent opportunity for Prime Minister Maliki to speak to this skepticism, and he did admirably well. However, we and the neighbors are well beyond the point for rhetoric alone. Action is needed now. -------------- IRAQ'S RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Virtually none of Iraq's neighbors have any representation in Iraq itself (aside from the Iranians who have too much). Typically in a conflict arena, there would be extensive ties. Iraq's neighbors, especially Sunnis, have no eyes and ears in Iraq right now. The information these countries receive comes almost exclusively through the eyes and ears of self-interested Sunnis, often in opposition to the political process and anxious to undermine the GOI. We must acknowledge this hill, if not mountain, that must be climbed. Iraq must show a national consensus to move forward. The GOI has failed to demonstrate to its own people, much less neighbors, that the national consensus and will is there. ¶9. (SBU) We all can help and encourage the GOI, neighbors included. Progress on constitutional reform, hydrocarbons laws, a provincial election law, and de-Ba'athification reform will demonstrate the GOI's commitment to working for all its citizens, regardless of sect or affiliation. This is an enormous challenge and Iraq needs all the help it can get. -------------- TWO MESSAGES FOR SUNNI NEIGHBORS -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Iraq needs a clear, unequivocal message from its Sunni neighbors that they accept the reality of a post-Saddam, democratic, Iraqi government. The second message to Sunnis both inside and outside Iraq who engage in violence is that this method is unacceptable. This violence is literally destroying the life of the Sunni Arab community and terrorist elements pose a threat to their way of life in all respects. Neither message has been sent in a sufficient manner. Our senior government leaders have clearly stated this message to our friends in the region, asking them to address these issues directly. ¶11. (SBU) Our message to the GOI has been clear. Most members of the Senate and many in the House of Representatives have visited Iraq on multiple occasions, communicating directly what the President has called the "diminishing patience" of the American people. Their commitment to stay on this path depends on proving that there is a partner in Iraq with whom to move forward - not just the Prime Minister but other political leaders as well. Now, progress is needed and not just rhetoric. -------------- ENGAGING SYRIA -------------- ¶12. (SBU) As we consider how best to move forward, there are two neighbors to whom we have not previously spoken: Iran and Syria. Our meetings at the Neighbors Ministerial focused entirely on Iraq. There was no discussion or mention of anything other than Iraq. We noted to the Syrians that the flow of terrorists and Takfiris through Syria continues unabated. Virtually all suicide bombers cross into Iraq through Syria. They have killed thousands of innocent Iraqis and continue to kill hundreds each week. Syria is concerned about this, they have taken some measures but more can definitely be done to prevent it. It will be difficult to pursue sectarian reconciliation in an environment where Shiites are killed by these Sunni bombers. Others do not - and should not have to - discern between sectarian and other violence. They see only a violent nation. There must be changes on the ground if the dialogue with Syria is to continue. Syria would like to see a higher level of representation from the USG, although this was not discussed STATE 00072784 003 OF 003 specifically. ¶13. (SBU) There was no substantive discussion with Iran, just procedural and technical arrangements to establish channels for talks only on Iraq. There are, of course, other fora for discussing the nuclear issue. As the Iranians recently mentioned in the press, there will be talks in Baghdad with Ambassador Crocker as the U.S. representative. We do not yet know the identity of the Iranian counterpart. All this is a challenge to the GOI to move forward in the best interests of its people. -------------- Q & A -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Following his remarks, Ambassador Satterfield was asked by Italian Embassy Counselor Perrone about feedback from Vice-President Cheney's trip to the region. Ambassador Satterfield responded that the Vice-President had presented exactly the same message as was given today and the response he got did not change that significantly. His theme was the need to move forward and be clear that violence has no support from Sunni Arab regions outside Iraq. ¶15. (SBU) Canadian PolCouns Brown asked about the status of the three working groups announced at the previous Neighbors Conference in Baghdad. Ambassador Satterfield replied that while all three (focusing on fuel and electricity, border security, and refugee isssues) had been agreed upon with non-neighbors in an advisory capacity, their substantive agenda would have to proceed as Iraq and its neighbors decide. There has not yet been a definitive decision on the subject although it is something the USG wants to see transpire in keeping with the plenary nature of the Neighbors Conference. RICE