WHA A/S SHANNON,S SEPTEMBER 27, 2007 MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 142845 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2017 TAGS: BL BR EC PA UNGA SUBJECT: WHA A/S SHANNON,S SEPTEMBER 27, 2007 MEETING WITH BRAZILIAN U/S FOR SOUTH AMERICA JORGE D'ESCRAGOLLE TAUNAY Classified By: WHA Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon, Department of State, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) September 27, 2007, 5:00 p.m., New York ¶2. (U) Participants: United States A/S Thomas A. Shannon Scott Miller, WHA Notetaker Brazil U/S for South America Jorge D'Escragolle Taunay Christian Sigueiroa, second secretary, Brazilian Mission to the U.N. Wilson Dockhorn, second secretary and assistant to the U/S ¶3. (C) SUMMARY. A/S Shannon and Brazilian U/S Taunay discussed developments in Bolivia, impressions of the Correa administration in Ecuador, and the presidential elections in Paraguay in a short meeting on the margins of the UNGA. END SUMMARY. -------------- Bolivia -------------- ¶4. (C) Shannon said that the United States has been quite active and mostly successful in South America, but noted that the United States' relationship with Bolivia is becoming more problematic. Shannon cited several small incidents as well as the comments by Bolivian officials to DAS MacMullen that Bolivia has made a decision to distance itself from the United States. He also expressed disappointment that Brazil and the United States have offered Bolivia the ability to enhance productive capacity and access to markets, only to see Bolivia turn to Cuba and Venezuela. ¶5. (C) Taunay encouraged the United States to be mindful that Bolivia has been in a crisis since the beginning of the Morales administration and that by several criteria the country is experiencing a revolution. ¶6. (C) Taunay added that everything is "very political" at the moment in Bolivia; relationships can be largely shaped by the interlocutor and often change from day to day. Taunay attributed the mixed signals emanating from Bolivia in part to lack of coordination and said he "would not worry too much." He added that Pablo Salon, who chairs South American integration meetings, is a moderate with whom the Brazilians have found they can talk. ¶7. (C) As for the constituent assembly in Bolivia, Taunay pointed out that it reflects the deep divisions within Bolivia and pointed out that the "media luna" will only accept so much radicalization. Shannon noted that the "media luna" has leaders who are prepared to fight and agreed with Taunay that an outbreak of violence would be awful. -------------- Ecuador -------------- ¶8. (C) A/S Shannon noted that Correa may face a more daunting challenge than Morales, given his lack of congressional representatives. He indicated that the United States is working to keep Ecuador close, but that this will be complicated by Correa's decision not to renew the Manta airbase lease. ¶9. (C) Taunay acknowledged that he has a better impression of Correa than most and finds him to be a good economist one can reason with. Taunay added that while Correa is nationalistic, he is not a radical, but closer to a moderate. -------------- Paraguay -------------- ¶10. (C) Taunay said the 2008 presidential elections in Paraguay are difficult to predict, particularly with the involvement of former army chief Lino Oviedo. Ultimately, Taunay thought that with the Colorado party's strong base, President Duarte will be able to pave a path for his STATE 00142845 002 OF 002 successor. A/S Shannon cautioned that Duarte is playing a dangerous game with Oviedo and said he noted ambition but lack of concrete proposals in his meeting with candidate Fernando Lugo. RICE