A/S HILL'S OCTOBER 1 MEETING WITH SINGAPORE FM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 139642

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017
TAGS: PREL ASEAN SN
SUBJECT: A/S HILL'S OCTOBER 1 MEETING WITH SINGAPORE FM
GEORGE YEO

Classified By: EAP A/S Christopher R. Hill, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A/S Hill welcomed ASEAN FMs' strong
statement last week against the Burmese regime,s recent
crackdown, and told Foreign Minister Yeo that it was
important for ASEAN to continue applying pressure. Yeo
advised that U.S. pressure should not push the Burmese
leadership to the limit because bringing down the regime
could result in civil war, regional instability and waves of
refugees in the region. The best way forward was to support
UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari,s efforts and press the regime to
begin an honest dialogue with the opposition, Yeo said,
adding that Aung San Suu Kyi had agreed to meet with the
Government. He said China had used its own leverage with
Burma to ensure that Gambari would get a meeting with leader
Than Shwe. Yeo revealed Gambari will meet with him and
Singapore Prime Minister Lee on his return to Singapore. Yeo
said ASEAN looked forward to an early Summit with President
Bush in Texas, and asked for a proposed date as soon as
possible. Yeo revealed the ASEAN Charter was "all wrapped
up" and was getting a final legal review before its scheduled
signing at the ASEAN Summit in November. The Charter will
reference the creation of a human rights body but leave the
details to be worked out. Yeo said Singapore,s Ministry of
Defense is considering an extension of its support to a
Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan. End Summary.

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BURMA
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2. (C) In an October 1 meeting on the margins of UNGA, A/S
Hill praised the strong statement made by ASEAN Foreign
Ministers last week against Burma's crackdown on peaceful
demonstrations. Yeo said that the regime,s shooting of
Buddhist monks was described to him by one of the ASEAN
foreign ministers as a &different kind of crime8 for anyone
who was a Buddhist (i.e., implying that such a crime was
nearly unimaginable for Buddhists). A/S Hill urged that
Singapore and other ASEAN countries to apply further pressure
on the regime. Yeo saw the Chilean model as a possible way
forward for Burma, where despite lots of "nasty business" the
Chileans were able to slowly move towards progress while
waiting for General Pinochet to die. In response to a
question from A/S Hill about Than Shwe,s health and medical
treatment in Singapore, Yeo said Shwe,s cancer was not
life-threatening, and that his health was "quite ok."

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GAMBARI'S MISSION
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3. (C) Turning to UN Special Envoy Gambari,s current
mission to Burma, Yeo said that Aung San Suu Kyi (AASK) told
Gambari that she was prepared to have a dialogue with the
junta. While it was useful to have the United States as a
&bad cop8 while Gambari played the &good cop,8 it would
be critical not to create conditions for Gambari,s mission
to fail. Yeo advised that it was important not to push the
regime to the limit and "burn it down," because what might
rise from the ashes could be even worse than the current
regime, including civil war, regional instability, and
refugees streaming into neighboring countries. If the United
States pushes the regime to the limit, Yeo posited, Than Shwe
would also push things to the limit, and as a result,
Gambari,s mission would be &neutralized.8 A/S Hill
indicated that the United States would likely soon start
pushing Singapore and others to put economic pressure on the
regime, including shutting down bank accounts of junta
members, for example; Yeo responded that such actions were
tactical, but it is more important to find a strategy to make
a difference in what is happening in Burma, a way to
strengthen Gambari. A/S Hill observed that the United States
has consistently supported Gambari,s work, and had called
for political reconciliation and dialogue.


4. (C) Yeo contended that if the Burmese regime was
overthrown, there would be continued fighting inside Burma
that could turn into a long and drawn-out domestic conflict
with waves of refugees flowing into neighboring countries,
with India and China striving to maintain influence.
Supporting Gambari and ASSK,s call for dialogue was the

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preferred course. While Burma was a difficult test case for
ASEAN (noting that Singapore had originally opposed Burma,s
entry into ASEAN in the late 1980s),ultimately he believed
the test of time would show that it was better for Burma to
be inside ASEAN rather than outside, where it would be
subjected to India's and China,s quest for control and
influence, resulting in fighting on &our doorstep.8 Yeo
said he thought ASEAN,s strong statement against the
regime,s actions and in support of Gambari,s mission had
made it easier for China to pressure the junta, as ASEAN had
clearly set itself against Burma.


5. (C) Singapore UN Permanent Representative Menon revealed
that the Chinese were pressuring Burma to ensure that Gambari
met with Than Shwe. He said both the Chinese Ambassador and
the UN,s resident coordinator Charles Petrie were at the
airport to greet Gambari. When the Burmese authorities tried
to ban Petrie from the arrival, the Chinese Ambassador
intervened, noting that if the junta tried to dismiss Petrie,
he would also leave. Menon added that the Chinese Ambassador
had underscored to the Burmese that Gambari would not be
leaving &until he sees Than Shwe.8 Yeo said that he would
be returning to Singapore in time to meet with Gambari on
Thursday morning at 10:00, before Gambari meets with Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong at 11:30. Yeo said he would tell
Gambari that he has ASEAN,s full backing.

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ASEAN-U.S. SUMMIT
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6. (C) Yeo asked for the United States to propose a date for
the U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Texas as soon as possible so
Singapore could work with ASEAN countries to confirm the
date. He confirmed that ASEAN countries were all pleased
with the President,s invitation to Texas.

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ASEAN CHARTER
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7. (C) Yeo told A/S Hill that the ASEAN Charter was &all
wrapped up8 and now undergoing a legal scrub, but was
otherwise ready to be signed at the Singapore-hosted November
ASEAN Summit. Yeo said that Charter language on the proposed
human rights body would merely indicate that such a body will
be established, but with the terms of reference for the body
still to be discussed.

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AFGHANISTAN PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAMS
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8. (C) A/S Hill urged Singapore to continue supporting a PRT
in Afghanistan after its current team finishes its assignment
at the end of October 2007. Yeo replied that its Ministry of
Defense was considering what to do next. While not
indicating what Singapore would do, Yeo noted that Singapore
understood the symbolic importance of maintaining a presence.
Singapore wanted to be sure that any future support it might
offer would be sustainable, he said.
RICE