(U) POLITICAL AND ANTI-AQI DYNAMICS IN DIYALA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 107466 SIPDIS NOFORN PLEASE PASS TO PRTS VIA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2032 TAGS: PINR IZ SUBJECT: (U) POLITICAL AND ANTI-AQI DYNAMICS IN DIYALA PROVINCE (C-IA7-01244) Classified By: RODNEY L. HUFF, DIR., INR/I. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE POSTS' AND PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAM'S INSIGHTS ON THE DYNAMICS IN DIYALA PROVINCE. THE INCREASE IN INSURGENT ACTIVITY AND THE INFLUX OF INSURGENTS LEAVING BAGHDAD AND AL ANBAR, AS WELL AS PREPARATIONS FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS, MAKE DIYALA INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT. TIME AND RESOURCES PERMITTING, ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE GAINING MORE AND BETTER INFORMATION ON PROVINCIAL LEADERS AND POWERBASES, AS WELL AS THE LEADERSHIP AND VIABILITY OF ANTI-AQI ELEMENTS. ¶A. (U) WHO ARE THE KEY/MOST INFLUENTIAL FIGURES IN THE PROVINCE? ¶B. (U) WHAT PREPARATIONS, IF ANY, HAVE THE POLITICAL PARTIES (SUCH AS THE IIP, SIIC, DA'WA, KDP, PUK) MADE FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS? ¶C. (U) WHO ARE THE LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR LEADERSHIP POSITIONS IN UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS? WHO HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN PROVINCIAL-LEVEL POSITIONS? ¶D. (U) HOW OFTEN DOES THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL MEET/HOLD QUORUM? ¶E. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE GOVERNOR AMONG DIYALA SHIA? ¶F. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE DEPUTY GOVERNOR AMONG DIYALA SUNNIS? ¶G. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL CHAIR AMONG DIYALA KURDS? ¶H. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE DIYALA SUPPORT COMMITTEE (DSC) IN DIYALA? ¶I. (U) WHAT HAVE KURDISH PARTIES BEEN DOING IN NORTHERN DIYALA TO INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE? ¶J. (U) WHAT IS THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN SPECIFICALLY DOING TO INCREASE KURDISH INFLUENCE IN THE NORTH? HOW IS HE USING HIS POSITION TO INFLUENCE KURDISH CONTROL IN KHANQIN AND MANDALI? ¶K. (U) HOW HAVE DIYALA SHIA AND SUNNIS REACTED TO KURDISH ACTIVITIES IN DIYALA? ARE ETHNIC GROUPS FORMING MILITIAS TO OPPOSE THE KURDS, OR ARE JAM AND SUNNI INSURGENT GROUPS OR AQI MOVING INTO THE AREA TO CONDUCT ATTACKS AGAINST THE KURDS? ¶L. (U) INFORMATION ON DSC LEADER HAJJI AHMED 1) (U) BIOGRAPHICAL DATA 2) (U) HIS VIEWS ON THE COALITION 3) (U) HIS STRATEGY FOR IMPROVING SECURITY AND COMMUNICATION IN THE PROVINCE 4) (U) HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH PRIME MINISTER MALIKI AND OTHER BAGHDAD OFFICIALS 5) (U) HIS POPULARITY AMONG OTHER MEMBERS OF THE DSC ¶M. (S/NF) HOW INFLUENTIAL IS THE REPORTEDLY ANTI-AQI GROUP JAHAFIL WITHIN THE PROVINCE? 1) (S/NF) INFORMATION ON JAHAFIL LEADER MAJID AL-HAYALI A) (S/NF) BIOGRAPHICAL DATA B) (S/NF) HIS VIEWS ON THE COALITION C) (S/NF) HIS STRATEGY FOR IMPROVING COMBATING AQI D) (S/NF) HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH POLITICAL LEADERS IN DIYALA AND IN BAGHDAD ¶N. (U) HOW SUCCESSFUL HAVE ANTI-AQI GROUPS BEEN IN DIYALA CITIES? SPECIFICALLY IN BA'QUBAH, BUHRIZ, DOJIMA, ABU SAIDA (OR SAYDA),AND MUQDADIYAH. 1) (U) WHO ARE THE LEADERS OF THESE GROUPS? HOW MUCH STATE 00107466 002 OF 002 INFLUENCE DO THEY HAVE IN THE COMMUNITY? 2) (U) HOW ARE LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL LEADERS ENGAGING THESE GROUPS? IS THERE ANY EFFORT TO BRING THEM UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE ISF OR FORM THEM INTO ERUS? IS THE DSC ENGAGING THESE GROUPS? 3) (S/NF) WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MUQDADIYAH NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH, LED BY DR. ABDULLAH? ¶O. (U) WHAT ARE THE IRANIAN INFLUENCE, ACTIVITIES, AND PRESENCE IN THE PROVINCE? ¶P. (U) WHO ARE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE MARJA'IYA IN DIYALA? HOW POPULAR ARE THEY? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-IA7-01244 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. RICE