(U) POLITICAL AND ANTI-AQI DYNAMICS IN DIYALA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 107466

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2032
TAGS: PINR IZ
SUBJECT: (U) POLITICAL AND ANTI-AQI DYNAMICS IN DIYALA
PROVINCE (C-IA7-01244)

Classified By: RODNEY L. HUFF, DIR., INR/I. REASON: 1.4(C).


1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE POSTS' AND
PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAM'S INSIGHTS ON THE DYNAMICS IN
DIYALA PROVINCE. THE INCREASE IN INSURGENT ACTIVITY AND THE
INFLUX OF INSURGENTS LEAVING BAGHDAD AND AL ANBAR, AS WELL AS
PREPARATIONS FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS, MAKE DIYALA
INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT. TIME AND RESOURCES PERMITTING,
ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE GAINING MORE AND BETTER INFORMATION
ON PROVINCIAL LEADERS AND POWERBASES, AS WELL AS THE
LEADERSHIP AND VIABILITY OF ANTI-AQI ELEMENTS.


A. (U) WHO ARE THE KEY/MOST INFLUENTIAL FIGURES IN THE
PROVINCE?


B. (U) WHAT PREPARATIONS, IF ANY, HAVE THE POLITICAL
PARTIES (SUCH AS THE IIP, SIIC, DA'WA, KDP, PUK) MADE FOR
PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS?


C. (U) WHO ARE THE LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR LEADERSHIP
POSITIONS IN UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS? WHO HAS EXPRESSED
INTEREST IN PROVINCIAL-LEVEL POSITIONS?


D. (U) HOW OFTEN DOES THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL MEET/HOLD
QUORUM?


E. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE GOVERNOR AMONG DIYALA SHIA?


F. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE DEPUTY GOVERNOR AMONG DIYALA
SUNNIS?


G. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL CHAIR AMONG
DIYALA KURDS?


H. (U) HOW POPULAR IS THE DIYALA SUPPORT COMMITTEE (DSC) IN
DIYALA?


I. (U) WHAT HAVE KURDISH PARTIES BEEN DOING IN NORTHERN
DIYALA TO INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE?


J. (U) WHAT IS THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN SPECIFICALLY
DOING TO INCREASE KURDISH INFLUENCE IN THE NORTH? HOW IS HE
USING HIS POSITION TO INFLUENCE KURDISH CONTROL IN KHANQIN
AND MANDALI?


K. (U) HOW HAVE DIYALA SHIA AND SUNNIS REACTED TO KURDISH
ACTIVITIES IN DIYALA? ARE ETHNIC GROUPS FORMING MILITIAS TO
OPPOSE THE KURDS, OR ARE JAM AND SUNNI INSURGENT GROUPS OR
AQI MOVING INTO THE AREA TO CONDUCT ATTACKS AGAINST THE KURDS?


L. (U) INFORMATION ON DSC LEADER HAJJI AHMED

1) (U) BIOGRAPHICAL DATA

2) (U) HIS VIEWS ON THE COALITION

3) (U) HIS STRATEGY FOR IMPROVING SECURITY AND
COMMUNICATION IN THE PROVINCE

4) (U) HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH PRIME MINISTER MALIKI AND
OTHER BAGHDAD OFFICIALS

5) (U) HIS POPULARITY AMONG OTHER MEMBERS OF THE DSC


M. (S/NF) HOW INFLUENTIAL IS THE REPORTEDLY ANTI-AQI GROUP
JAHAFIL WITHIN THE PROVINCE?

1) (S/NF) INFORMATION ON JAHAFIL LEADER MAJID AL-HAYALI

A) (S/NF) BIOGRAPHICAL DATA

B) (S/NF) HIS VIEWS ON THE COALITION

C) (S/NF) HIS STRATEGY FOR IMPROVING COMBATING AQI

D) (S/NF) HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH POLITICAL LEADERS IN DIYALA
AND IN BAGHDAD


N. (U) HOW SUCCESSFUL HAVE ANTI-AQI GROUPS BEEN IN DIYALA
CITIES? SPECIFICALLY IN BA'QUBAH, BUHRIZ, DOJIMA, ABU SAIDA
(OR SAYDA),AND MUQDADIYAH.

1) (U) WHO ARE THE LEADERS OF THESE GROUPS? HOW MUCH

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INFLUENCE DO THEY HAVE IN THE COMMUNITY?

2) (U) HOW ARE LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL LEADERS ENGAGING THESE
GROUPS? IS THERE ANY EFFORT TO BRING THEM UNDER THE CONTROL
OF THE ISF OR FORM THEM INTO ERUS? IS THE DSC ENGAGING THESE
GROUPS?

3) (S/NF) WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MUQDADIYAH NEIGHBORHOOD
WATCH, LED BY DR. ABDULLAH?


O. (U) WHAT ARE THE IRANIAN INFLUENCE, ACTIVITIES, AND
PRESENCE IN THE PROVINCE?


P. (U) WHO ARE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE MARJA'IYA IN
DIYALA? HOW POPULAR ARE THEY?


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-IA7-01244 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
RICE