BULGARIA: SOFIA MAYOR STILL TRYING TO BE ALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000817

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOFIA MAYOR STILL TRYING TO BE ALL
THINGS TO ALL PEOPLE

Classified By: Ambassador Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a June 27 meeting with the Ambassador,
Sofia Mayor and GERB leader Boyko Borissov recounted his
recent trip to the United States, dismissing the story that
GERB mischaracterized A/S Dan Fried's "support" for the party
as a provocation from hostile media. He met with both
International Republican Institute's (IRI) Lorne Craner and
(in Madrid) European People's Party (EPP) Antonio Lopez, both
of whom "promised" GERB their support. At home, Borissov
says he is struggling to find a suitable coalition partner,
preferring to stay in the opposition rather than enter into
compromising political alliances. Ambassador encouraged him
to stick to principles -- better to lose clean than win dirty
-- and stressed that GERB must pick candidates that are
beyond reproach. Borissov previewed GERB's party platform
for upcoming municipal elections -- fighting corruption,
reforming the judicial system, and bringing the gray economy
to light. Much of what Borissov says is tailored to what he
believes a particular audience -- in this case, the U.S.
Ambassador -- wants to hear. He is a major political force,
but still raw, and unfamiliar with political life outside
Bulgaria. We need to challenge him to make good on his
anti-corruption promises, without ourselves getting used in
the process. END SUMMARY.

GAINING LEGITIMACY ABROAD...


2. (C) Borissov began the meeting by recounting his recent
trip to the United States, specifically highlighting his
meetings with IRI's Lorne Craner and A/S Dan Fried. He said
Craner was very supportive of GERB and floated the
possibility of training for party members. Borissov flatly
denied that GERB mischaracterized Dan Fried's "support" for
the party, dismissing the story as a provocation from media
friendly to former PM (and current GERB competitor) Ivan
Kostov. Borissov agreed with the Ambassador that following
the sweep of the May MEP elections, GERB is under extreme
scrutiny, and he has to be doubly cautious to make sure such
stories do not reappear.


3. (C) Borissov was encouraged by his meeting with Antonio
Lopez, Secretary General of the European People's Party, whom
he met in Madrid on his way back. Lopez is evidently
personally impressed with Borissov's anti-corruption efforts
on the municipal level -- since Borissov came to power,
Spanish companies stopped having to pay kickback for permits
to regional mayors. According to Borissov, Lopez backs GERB
"one hundred percent" and will support the party's
application to EPP. (NOTE: The mayor likes to blur nuances;
but in any case, EPP membership would greatly solidify GERB's
credentials both at home and abroad, granting it official
recognition as part of the European center-right family. END
NOTE)

... AND AT HOME


4. (C) GERB's sweep in the MEP elections shocked those who
thought that "Boyko talks simple, and simple people believe
him," said Borissov. He described the broad support GERB
received across the country, specifically highlighting the
support of intellectuals, college-graduates, and large share
of first-time voters. GERB has pushed out the traditional
center-right parties, said Borissov, and left BSP and radical
Ataka with voters over sixty. (NOTE: Exit polls show that
GERB support came from all across the political spectrum and
all age groups, proving that the party successfully harnessed
the protest vote that belonged to the reactionary Ataka party
and before that, the National Movement Simeon II. Analysts
question whether such support will last if GERB comes to
power; Bulgarian experience shows center-right parties that
revolve around a leader wane once in office. END NOTE)


5. (C) Looking ahead to municipal and parliamentary
elections, Borissov says GERB's greatest challenge will be to
find suitable coalition partners. Logical candidates like
rightist DSB and UDF are too small and divided. Borissov
predicts that GERB, Ataka, and predominantly-Turkish MRF will
be the clear election winners, with BSP coming in fourth or
fifth, but an alliance with any of them is out of the
question. He believes that siding with BSP would cost GERB
its electorate and send the party "to the bottom, like the
King" (referring to the significantly-weakened party of the
former PM and monarch Simeon II). The Ambassador urged
Borissov to avoid a coalition with Ataka, stressing that it
is better to lose clean than win dirty. Borissov agreed,
saying it is better to remain in the opposition than to enter
into compromising alliances.


6. (C) Borissov passionately explained to the Ambassador
that he is "categorically" opposed to an alliance with the
MRF, saying that it is MRF's political cronyism and opaque

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operations that GERB stands against. Ambassador suggested
that MRF could become an anti-corruption target, using the
recent removal of powerful Energy Minister Ovcharov over
corruption allegations as an example. Borissov disagreed,
saying the Prime Minister's fight against corruption will
never touch the MRF because of its important role as a
ruling-coalition partner. "I have politicians to raise,"
said Borissov, implying that aligning with the MRF would have
a corrupting influence. He agreed with the Ambassador that
GERB must vet its candidates to make sure all are clean and
beyond reproach.

PARTY PLATFORM GAINING CLARITY


7. (C) GERB's election platform will highlight three themes
-- fight against corruption, reform of the judicial system,
and eradication of the gray economy. Borissov concentrated
specifically on the gray economy, stressing that thirty
percent of GDP (or 18 billion Euros) never makes it to
government coffers. He outlined the strategy proposed by his
economic team -- introduce a ten-percent flat tax, strengthen
collection, and increase penalties for non-compliance.
Adding the missing funds to the government budget would more
than cover the sorely-needed pension increases and salary
hikes, according to Borissov. He proposed that the
Ambassador meet his economic team to get a better idea of
their strategy, to which the Ambassador agreed.

LOOKING FOR OUR SUPPORT


8. (C) Borissov ended the meeting with a direct request for
U.S. (and the Ambassador's personal) support. He said he
needs the Ambassador's support and guidance on navigating the
domestic political terrain and would appreciate if the two
would continue meeting periodically. The Ambassador stressed
that we support a democratic, pluralistic, and clean process
rather than individual parties, but reiterated our support
for GERB as an element of that process.

COMMENT


9. (C) Borissov says he is working to transform GERB from a
personality-based club into a more traditional party. The
experts he gathered around him should help clarify the
party's yet-unclear ideology, and membership in European
People's Party will help increase GERB's legitimacy and
confirm it as the heir apparent of Bulgaria's center-right.
Borissov is also saying all the right things -- the party's
platform of fight against corruption, reform of the judicial
system, and eradication of the gray economy are top
priorities, both at home and in Brussels. But his well
documented past links to Bulgarian organized crime clans
(links he claims were exaggerated and are now broken) make it
difficult to ignore those who argue that Borissov is a
stalking horse for corrupt special interests. Much of what
he says is tailored to what he thinks his audience wants to
hear, and it pays to be skeptical. If Borissov is serious
about making anti-corruption a central plank of the GERB
platform, his pleas for U.S. support will give us ample
opportunity to challenge him to take concrete action to match
his words -- e.g., full disclosure of sources of GERB's
financing. Borissov's choice of candidates for municipal
elections, and the reputations of internal advisors eager to
hop aboard as GERB's fortune's rise, will also show whether
the party can develop into an effective, progressive
political force. For now, the only thing we can say for
certain is that Borissov is popular, ambitious, and
calculating. He is the force to be reckoned with as the
traditional center-right parties wilt away, and voters
disaffected by the status quo look for populist campaigns.
We need to use the chance to shape this raw force -- without
getting used in the process. END COMMENT.
Beyrle