MEP ELECTION RESULT WOUNDS PM STANISHEV, BUT NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000643 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/NCE M NORDBERG E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV KCOR BU SUBJECT: MEP ELECTION RESULT WOUNDS PM STANISHEV, BUT NOT FATALLY REF: SOFIA 582 Classified By: POLEC Chief Brad Freden. Reasons 1.4 (b & d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Stanishev,s Bulgarian Socialist Party fared surprisingly poorly in the May 20 European Parliament (EP) elections, while Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov,s new party made an impressive political debut, edging out the Socialists for first place. The poor election result, coming on the heels of the biggest corruption scandal in recent memory (reftel),has knocked Stanishev back on his heels. The PM told the Ambassador May 21, however, that he had no intention of giving in to the calls for early elections, although a cabinet reshuffle was likely. A second surprise was the strong third-place showing by the predominantly-Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF),which will likely send five of its members to the EP, becoming the first party of its kind to do so. The traditional center-right parties continued their descent into irrelevance, failing to win a single seat. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) A subdued PM Stanishev told the Ambassador May 21 that the previous day's election results were disappointing, and that his party and governing coalition would consider how to respond. He said there was no thought of early elections, but there would be changes in the cabinet, mentioning the Ministry of Justice as due for a change, and suggesting a possible split into two of the Interior Ministry. He said the Socialist's campaign effort had lacked focus ("we were too busy governing") and offered rueful praise for the Turkish party's strong showing, which he credited to "strong voter discipline." Asked if the GERB party's victory was a surprise, he said only that voters clearly had expected more from the government than the government delivered. ¶3. (SBU) Results issued by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) showed Borissov's GERB party, which appears to have captured the bulk of the protest vote, has gained 21.69 percent of the vote compared to 21.41 percent for the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The predominantly ethnic MRF, a junior coalition partner, won a surprisingly high 20.26 percent of the vote. Each of the three front runners could receive up to five of Bulgaria's 18 seats in the European Parliament. The extreme nationalist Ataka party won 14.2 percent of the vote, which would translate into two or three seats. The National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS),the third coalition partner, trailed with 6.26 percent and may pick up one or two seats. Voter turnout was low by Bulgarian standards at 28.6 percent. COLD SHOWER FOR THE SOCIALISTS ¶4. (SBU) The BSP fell short of expectations and is thus the de facto loser. They were hoping to win up to eight seats, but their usually faithful electorate stayed home in large numbers on a cold and rainy election day. The corruption scandal swirling around Economy and Energy Minister Rumen Ovcharov was part of the reason, but probably more important was that the relatively older "Red" electorate just doesn't care that much about the EU. The much-vaunted discipline of the BSP electorate collapsed, with only about 400 000 electors casting their votes for the party, compared with over a million in 2005. A sober Stanishev told a news conference on election night the result was "an obvious disappointment" but noted that he did not plan any hasty moves with regard to his government. When asked whether his government was at risk given the strong challenge by GERB, the PM put on a brave face, noting that the ruling coalition as a whole would win up to 12 of the 18 MEP seats. ENTERS BORISSOV'S NEW PARTY ¶5. (C) Boiko Borissov's GERB has now emerged as the leading opposition party, despite not having a single member of parliament or, for that matter, a serious platform. At this stage, however, GERB owes its support almost entirely to Borissov's charisma. A former bodyguard who worked for late communist dictator Todor Zhivkov, the media-savvy, Borissov has steadily increased his popularity since he was appointed Interior Ministry Chief Secretary six years ago. Borissov's controversial past, with links to Bulgarian organized crime leaders, has not eroded his public support. ¶6. (SBU) GERB based its campaign on populist, anti-government rhetoric, taking a full advantage of the ongoing corruption scandal. Speculation that Borissov may be eyeing the PM's job was fueled May 21 by his renewed pledge that GERB will push for early parliamentary elections. However, without a single MP in the current National Assembly, Borissov's demand for elections is currently little more than bluster. In a May SOFIA 00000643 002 OF 002 23 call to the Ambassador, Borissov boasted that his victory was a defeat for the ultranationalists in ATAKA, until now the primary magnet for the Bulgarian protest vote. Borissov said the European People's Party was calling to congratulate GERB as "the only existing force on the Bulgarian right." TRIUMPH FOR THE ETHNIC TURKS ¶7. (SBU) The MRF was another surprise "winner" in the election, significantly exceeding expectations despite not being allowed to bus in voters from Turkey, as is its usual practice. There were, however, the usual reports of vote-buying, especially among Roma. The MRF becomes the first predominantly-Turkish party represented in the EP. NATIONALIST ATAKA RETAINS BASE ¶8. (C) The extreme nationalist Ataka party will send 2-3 MEPs to join like-minded scoundrels in the "Identity, Tradition and Sovereignty" MEP faction. Ataka won 14.2 percent of the vote on May 20, showing that speculation about its imminent demise is premature ) Borissov's claims notwithstanding. Ataka, which is strongly anti-US and anti-EU, campaigned on it usual negative platform, focusing its attacks against the ethnic-Turkish MRF, which is widely -) and correctly -- viewed as corrupt. EX-KING SIMEON: DOWN BUT NOT OUT ¶9. (SBU) The NMSS, led by ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha, received 6.26 percent of the vote, a distant echo of its landslide victory in the 2001 general elections. What would otherwise appear as a humiliating result was viewed by NMSS officials as a success, given the gloomy forecasts that the party might not elect a single MEP. COLLAPSE OF THE TRADITIONAL CENTER-RIGHT ¶9. (C) The traditional center-right parties of former President Petar Stoyanov and former Prime Minister Ivan Kostov (the Union of Democratic Forces and Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria) continue to circle the drain, with neither breaching the 5.56 percent threshold. Both Stoyanov and Kostov announced they were resigning as party leaders due to the election loss, but few believe Bulgaria has seen the last of these two outsized egos. Kostov stated that the time had come to unite their parties, but it may take more than that to energize their base, which has drifted to Borissov or is sullenly staying at home. ¶11. (U) Bulgaria's parliamentary delegation will boost the positions of the two traditionally largest factions in the EP, with GERB joining the center-right European People's Party, and the Socialists joining the Party of European Socialists faction. The MPs from the two centrist parties ) the MRF and the NMSS -- will sit with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe. CLOUDS GATHER OVER PM ¶12. (C) COMMENT: Bulgaria's first election for members of the European Parliament confirmed the emergence of the new power on the domestic political scene, the charismatic but controversial Sofia Mayor Borissov. His group, which is strongly pro-EU and pro-US, is still little more than a personal fan club and has yet to evolve into a traditional party based on a clear ideology. Should GERB repeat its success in the local elections in the autumn, Borissov may be in a position to push for the early general elections he has already said he would seek. The Socialist loss will reinforce the internal opposition to PM Stanishev and put additional pressure on the Prime Minister to make changes in the government ahead of October's local vote. ¶13. (C) Stanishev is taking much internal blame for the Socialists' losses, but is still battling. As he told the Ambassador when asked if he would continue to support the corruption probe against his powerful Minister of Economy and Energy, "There are things more important than a job." The Coalition is also showing strain, but only in terms of electoral support, not in governing. Their majority in the National Assembly is not in doubt. The threat to Stanishev, such as it is, comes from within his own party. He knows that it may ultimately cost him his job if these internal factions determine he is harming BSP electoral strength or economic interests. Nevertheless, he appears determined to carry on and carry through with reforms. END COMMENT Beyrle