PDAS VOLKER'S MEETING WITH THE "VILNIUS 10" NATO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 000500 SIPDIS ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR SIPDIS STATE EUR/NCE NORDBERG E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017 TAGS: NATO PREL BU SUBJECT: PDAS VOLKER'S MEETING WITH THE "VILNIUS 10" NATO ALLIES IN BULGARIA -- ZFR SOFIA 00000500 001.2 OF 003 ***ZFR****ZFR****ZFR*****ZFR****** PLEASE ZFR SOFIA 500, CABLE WILL BE RESET UNDER A NEW MRN SOFIA 00000500 002 OF 003 necessary for a sustainable solution since there was no chance of a velvet divorce as with the Czechs and Slovaks. The Bulgarian Political Director, Valentin Poriazov, noted that such legitimacy is important because the precedent issue is a concern in the Balkans. PDAS Volker warned that a UNSC resolution is not assured and used Darfur as an example where the international community has failed to prevent violence given its unwavering focus on legitimacy. ¶6. (C) There was unanimity about the need for Russia to be part of the agreement. Participants such as Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria believe Russia is pursuing its own interests rather than being genuinely concerned about Kosovo or the region. Slovakia and Hungary's representatives argued that Russia needs a face-saving measure to cooperate. "They don't want to veto, but will if they are backed into a corner," stated Slovakia's Lacjak. The V-10 allies broadly agreed that the "price" for Moscow's cooperation must be within the Ahtisaari plan and should not include such things as Georgia's NATO membership or energy. The group also agreed that better cooperation between NATO and the EU was essential for the settlement to succeed. The V-10 group was later joined by representatives from the western Balkan countries and UNMIK. UNMIK's Steven Shook underscored the necessity for moving forward on Ahtisaari's proposal, while Serbia's Deputy Director for NATO, Bratislav Djordjevic, reiterated Belgrade's opposition to the plan and warned about the negative internal consequences it could bring to Serbia. PDAS Volker thanked Djordjevic for Serbia's participation in the meeting and stressed that the success of the EU is rooted in overcoming history, whether France and Germany, or Hungary and its minorities abroad. As painful as it is, Volker said, success in the Balkans requires those nations to overcome history and take care of their people today. MISSILE DEFENSE -------------- ¶7. (C) The allies agreed Russia's concerns about missile defense were exaggerated and appear to reflect Moscow's muscle-flexing. The Czech Republic's Kuchynova-Smigolova expressed disappointment with "how quickly" allies in Western Europe accepted Russia's rhetoric on missile defense. All the participants saw a strong need to better coordinate their positions before talking to Russia and for the Alliance to speak in one voice on the issue. The group urged continuing U.S. public diplomacy efforts to enlighten an ill-informed European public and "take away the argument" from Russia. They welcomed the news that the Secretary as well as Defense Secretary Gates will visit Moscow soon. PDAS Volker pressed SIPDIS European leaders to speak up as well. NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL -------------- ¶8. (C) The V-10 group shared their disappointment that the NATO-RUSSIA Council (NRC) has failed to produce constructive dialogue. Despite seeing the NRC as "broken" and an "empty shell," allies still regard it as a useful forum for discussions with Russia and agree NATO needs to continue pursuing practical cooperation with Moscow. V-10 representatives agreed that other issues such as "frozen conflicts" and energy security should be discussed in the NRC. ENERGY SECURITY -------------- ¶9. (C) Participants agreed energy security is a critical issue and that Russia is using energy as a political tool. The V-10 allies share the view that energy is an appropriate topic for NATO and should be treated as a security issue. Representatives noted that the EU is divided over the issue and that countries are pursuing separate goals. Bulgaria's Poriazov remarked that other EU members' interests are not taken into account when certain members make decisions with Russia. Kuchynova-Smigolova criticized the EU as "acting in a vacuum" in its efforts to address the issue through internal restructuring, saying these reforms will not help if Russia remains in a monopolist position outside the EU. The group agreed the diversification of energy sources was crucial and recognized Russia's efforts to buy shares in Europe's energy infrastructure as a dangerous trend. AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶10. (C) PDAS Volker previewed upcoming discussions in Oslo by summarizing the priorities that emerged from the Secretary's SOFIA 00000500 003 OF 003 recent talks with NATO SECGEN Hoop Scheffer. These include the need to increase European "ownership" of a successful outcome in Afghanistan and calls for greater international coordination, force generation and consistent messaging. Many allies confirmed their willingness to increase their commitments to Afghanistan. Kuchynova-Smigolova announced that the Czechs are seeking to take over a PRT. Lithuania's Director for Security Policy, Algis Dabkus, said Lithuania had made a decision to send an additional special operations force to Afghanistan. The Deputy Political Director for Latvia, Nils Janson, noted that Riga is currently working on a plan for Afghanistan that would increase both their military and civilian contingents. Hungary's Udvardi stressed that Budapest considers theirs a "long-term commitment." CUBA -------------- ¶11. (C) PDAS Volker urged V-10 representatives to work toward an EU policy calling for democratic transition in Cuba. He noted that Spanish Foreign Minister Moratinos conferred legitimacy on Raul Castro while failing to meet dissidents. Poriazov mentioned that EU's divisions on Cuba extend beyond the GAERC and were present in the European Parliament as well. The Czech representative expressed strong support for the U.S. position but speculated that democracy may not happen as quickly as we hope. CLIMATE CHANGE -------------- ¶12. (C) PDAS Volker stated that the past seven years of international climate policy had been a disaster because Kyoto bitterly divided the international community. Those who opposed it were vilified, even if they cut emissions, while those who supported it were hailed, even if they did not reduce emissions. Volker encouraged V-10 representatives to urge the EU to avoid repeating the mistake of pushing another global cap-and-trade treaty and to instead support an approach that welcomes all efforts, by all countries, to reduce emissions. BLACK SEA -------------- ¶13. (C) The allies discussed the Black Sea and efforts, largely by Romania and Bulgaria, to bring the region to the forefront of European and Euro-Atlantic agendas. Bulgaria's NATO Director Petyo Petev said Bulgaria does not want a closed discussion among littoral states on the Black Sea and believes NATO should focus more on the region. Romania's Political Director, Ovidiu Dranga, remarked that EU membership has opened the door to more opportunities in the Black Sea on a number of fronts, such as the environment, economic development and counter-proliferation. PDAS Volker and others commended Bulgaria and Romania for showing leadership on the issue, and said Russia should be encouraged to see that it will benefit from enhanced Black Sea Cooperation. ¶14. (U) PDAS Volker did not have the opportunity to clear this cable. BEYRLE