BULGARIA IN THE EU: STILL FINDING ITS WAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 000473

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE EUR/NCE NORDBERG, EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2017
TAGS: EUN PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA IN THE EU: STILL FINDING ITS WAY


Classified By: A/DCM Brad Freden for reasons 4.1 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Bulgaria's recent accession to the EU has
fueled speculation over what sort of member it will
be--passive or active--and what priorities it will have in
the Union. Many observers expect Bulgaria to continue its
pre-accession approach of being cautious, flexible and
non-confrontational on most EU-related political issues.
Sofia has modest ambitions in the EU and will seek to be in
the mainstream on most issues, say experts. The two areas
where Bulgaria is likely to see more of a role for itself in
the EU are the Western Balkans and the Black Sea Basin. Both
Bulgaria and the Union have a strong interest in creating a
zone of stable and prosperous states on Bulgaria's--and now
the EU's--external borders. As a small country that is
almost entirely dependent on Russian energy imports, Bulgaria
suffers more than most from the lack of a common EU energy
policy. END SUMMARY.

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AIMING FOR THE EU MAINSTREAM; WITH A FEW PET ISSUES
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2. (C) Bulgaria has reached the 100-day mark of its EU
membership. While the country is still finding its feet in
Brussels, our best estimation is that Sofia will seek to stay
"in the middle of the pack" on most EU issues. As Gergana
Grancharova, the newly-appointed EU Minister, told the
Ambassador recently: most Bulgarians (officials included)
still do not have the self-confidence to believe their
country can play a role on the world scene. We spoke to a
number of respected experts who share this view and the
expectation that Bulgaria will be a passive and risk-averse
EU member. Most notable among them is Krassimir Nikolov,
whose institute--the Bulgarian European Community Studies
Association--closely tracks Bulgaria's positions on key EU
issues. He sees Bulgaria as taking pains to avoid standing
out on any one issue. According to him, Sofia has
consistently avoided taking a firm or outspoken stand on
controversial issues that divide member states, such as the
EU Constitution. Bulgaria has expressed concrete views only
on relatively non-contentious issues and prefers to follow a
moderate, consensus-seeking approach.


3. (SBU) Sofia's cautious approach prior to membership can be
explained partly by its preoccupation with on-time accession.
To this end, Bulgaria concentrated on completing its
accession "homework" and left the EU to deal with its own
internal problems. But most experts claim Bulgaria does not
have strong leadership ambitions and has historically been a
"follower" not a leader. They expect the country to act the
same after accession and to be mostly passive. There are
exceptions, of course, like the case of the Bulgarian nurses
jailed in Libya and the closure of the Kozloduy nuclear
reactors, which Bulgaria appears determined to press within
the EU. But, apart from these parochial issues, even strong
external pressure may not be enough to get Bulgaria to take
the lead on contentious issues, argues Nikolov. Ivan
Krustev, Director of the well-respected Center for Liberal
Strategies, similarly expects Bulgaria to gravitate
automatically towards whatever consensus exists in the EU on
a particular issue. He says Bulgaria is not interested so
much in the "content" of issues as it is in finding or
following the consensus. Both he and Nikolov believe
Bulgaria's politicians are eager to give the impression of
being in the mainstream, and to be seen as being constructive
and not causing problems.

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FURTHER ENLARGMENT IN THE BALKANS A PRIORITY
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4. (SBU) To the extent Bulgaria has priorities in the EU,
they are likely to derive from a mixture of national
interests and increasing responsibility as the EU's new
external border. Bulgaria has a pronounced interest in the
Western Balkans and regards further enlargement in the region
as vital to its strategic interest. Sofia insists on keeping
a clear "European perspective" for the Western Balkans and
sees this as the best framework for ensuring regional
stability and prosperity. The delay in the integration of
Sofia's Western neighbors has a direct bearing on Bulgaria's
own economic welfare. Serbia is Bulgaria's natural
landbridge to Europe for trade and commerce, and some
officials fear the visas Sofia must now impose on its non-EU
neighbors to the West will only slow the growth in regional
economic relations. Given the benefits Bulgaria sees for
itself in further expansion, Sofia is likely to remain one of
the more enthusiastic supporters of enlargement in Brussels.

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At the same time, Bulgaria is mindful of "enlargement
fatigue" among older member states and will no doubt
recognize that pushing hard for accession in the face of
resistance is not productive or advantageous to its own
standing in the EU.


5. (SBU) Support for Turkish accession is more ambiguous.
Most officials say Turkish membership--and the modernization
that comes with it--is in the interest of Bulgaria as a
neighboring country "provided Ankara fulfills all of the
necessary requirements." In truth, Bulgaria has not yet had
an official or public debate on Turkey's bid, but most
experts believe politicians will be divided over the issue
when it comes to the fore. There are many skeptics,
especially among the center-right, including former Prime
Minister Ivan Kostov's party and the influential analyst
Ogynan Minchev. They argue Bulgaria, with its sizable
Turkish population and close proximity, will be the EU
country most affected by Turkish membership, particularly
demographically. These fears are closely tied to negative
feelings towards the mostly-ethnic Turkish MRF party, which
is regarded as corrupt, and which has a political monopoly
over the country's Turkish population. But the "well-informed
public" recognizes that a EU rejection of Turkey would push
Turkey in a direction that would be bad for Bulgarian
interests, argues Minchev.

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LOOKING TO CONTRIBUTE IN THE BLACK SEA
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6. (SBU) The Black Sea is another area where Bulgaria is
focusing greater attention and has expressed a desire to play
an active role as part of the EU's European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP). As with the Western Balkans, Sofia would like
to see a ring of stable, prosperous countries on its eastern
shores. This goal is consistent with the ENP's aim of
avoiding a new dividing line across Europe. Bulgaria has
good relations with most of the Black Sea countries and has
signed cooperation agreements related to Euro-Atlantic
integration with Georgia and Ukraine as well as Armenia and
Azerbaijan. According to Nikolov, Bulgaria traditionally has
looked at the Black Sea through a lense of either security
(primarily NATO) or concern for the welfare of its diasporas
in countries like Ukraine and Moldova. But as Bulgarian
accession brings the EU's borders to the shores of the Black
Sea, the country appears to be taking on greater
responsibility for the region. The government is working to
finalize a policy paper that will define its priorities
towards the region and reportedly take a more holistic
approach towards the neighborhood.

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WHOSE TEAM WILL THEY JOIN?
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7. (C) Bulgaria will be challenged to dispel notions among
many member states that it will be Russia's "Trojan horse"
inside the EU. Moscow's Ambassador to Brussels used the term
in an interview to describe how Russia intends to rely on
Bulgaria to be its "special partner" in the EU. Noting how
external EU decisions are based on consensus, the Russian
Ambassador said Bulgaria could help Moscow by "calming the
crazy votes" (i.e., Poland) while "encouraging" the undecided
voters on Russia-related matters. EU-wide polls indeed show
Bulgaria as being the most Russia-friendly country in the
Union, according to Ivan Krustev. However, this cultural and
historical affinity extends less and less to politics, as
Bulgaria has reoriented its foreign policy decisively toward
the West over the last decade. Bulgaria also recognizes that
Russia has little to offer it economically beyond a one-sided
trade relationship based on energy. Russian business
interests, however, do have a strong foothold. Most of these
appear to fall somewhere on the continuum from
"non-transparent" (i.e., in the energy sector) to outright
criminal. Bulgaria appears willing to support Brussels'
efforts to agree to a common energy policy, particularly if
that means weakening Europe and Bulgaria's dependency on
Russian energy.


8. (SBU) Among the original members, Bulgaria has strong
historic and economic ties with Germany, where many Bulgarian
students study abroad. Others see Bulgaria as joining the
newer, mostly former communist, EU members in a natural
alliance against the bigger and older members. Nikolov,
however, considers this notion of "natural allies" in the EU
as misguided, arguing that most coalitions in the EU are
issue-based. He sees cooperation between older and newer
members as being more likely. According to him, Bulgaria has

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little experience in building coalitions and has rarely been
regarded as an "equal" partner given its history of foreign
occupation and domination. Sofia will need some time to
learn the Union's unique form of multilateral horse-trading
in order to defend its interests. As the EU member state
most dependent on Russia for its energy needs, Bulgaria could
potentially be a natural leader on this issue, and we should
continue trying to push them in this direction.


9. (SBU) Bulgaria, which ratified the Constitution at the
same time as its Accession Treaty, has avoided wading into
the larger argument on the next steps, after the French and
Dutch rejection, and is awaiting the results of the EU's
"reflection" period. Prime Minister Stanishev recently said
Bulgaria supports the text of the Constitution agreed upon in
October 2004 and thinks the core of the Constitution should
not be modified. Bulgaria has aligned itself with the EU on
issues like Kyoto and the ICC while trying to avoid a clash
between European (i.e., European Security and Defense Policy)
and Euro-Atlantic (i.e., NATO) foreign policy imperatives.
Sofia supports increasing the EU's role in international
peace and security operations through ESDP but insists these
efforts should complement NATO's actions and strengthen the
trans-Atlantic link. Similarly, Bulgaria is supportive of
the Common Foreign and Security Policy, which it sees as
improving the external action and effectiveness of the EU.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Getting Bulgaria to be more active and outspoken on
issues important to us will be a challenge given Sofia's
default mode of "go-along/get-along." The gravitational pull
of Brussels is only expected to increase with Bulgaria's
continuing integration and greater dependency on EU funds.
By putting the pressure on Bulgaria to aim higher than EU
mainstream, we can help Sofia to better defend its own
interests while also reinforcing the trans-Atlantic link.
BEYRLE