BULGARIA: PATIENCE WEARS THIN ON LIBYA MEDICS CASE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000026

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM LY BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: PATIENCE WEARS THIN ON LIBYA MEDICS CASE

REF: A. 06 TRIPOLI 785


B. KARAGIANNIS-NORDBERG EMAIL (1/5/07)

C. 06 STATE 158074

D. 06 SOFIA 1683

E. 06 SOFIA 1695

SOFIA 00000026 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR JOHN BEYRLE, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST. PLEASE SEE PARAGRAPH 9.


2. (C) SUMMARY: AS BULGARIA BEGINS THE NEW YEAR, PUBLIC RANCOR IS STEADILY BUILDING OVER LIBYA'S DECEMBER 19 CONFIRMATION OF DEATH SENTENCES AGAINST FIVE BULGARIAN NURSES. AFTER A HOLIDAY SEASON MARKED BY HIGH-PROFILE EXPRESSIONS OF SUPPORT FOR THE NURSES, BULGARIAN LEADERS SEEM TO HAVE NO INTENTION OF RETURNING TO THE POLICY OF "QUIET DIPLOMACY" -- NOW LARGELY SEEN AS A FAILURE. WE HAVE STRESSED TO THE GOB THAT ATTEMPTS TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON LIBYA MAY SHRINK THE SPACE FOR DIPLOMATIC MANEUVER, BUT FOR NOW, EMOTION -- NOT STRATEGIC THINKING -- IS GOVERNING THE BULGARIAN RESPONSE. BULGARIA IS CALLING A MEETING WITH INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS IN SOFIA ON JANUARY 15-17 TO ASSESS THE SITUATION AND DISCUSS STRATEGY; WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND WASHINGTON REPRESENTATION IN THESE TALKS. END SUMMARY.

"YOU ARE NOT ALONE"
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3. (C) FOR MANY BULGARIANS, THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS WERE MARKED BY DEMONSTRATIONS OF SUPPORT FOR THE NURSES: HOLIDAY LIGHTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WERE DIMMED IN SOLIDARITY ON CHRISTMAS EVE, AND THE WEARING OF TRICOLOR "YOU ARE NOT ALONE" RIBBONS HAS BECOME AN INCREASINGLY POPULAR TREND. EVEN AS CROWDS GATHERED IN SOFIA'S CENTRAL SQUARE TO CELEBRATE BULGARIA'S ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION ON NEW YEAR'S EVE, RIBBONS WERE DISTRIBUTED AT SECURITY CHECKPOINTS AND IMAGES OF THE RIBBONS BEAMED DOWN TO THE CROWD FROM PROJECTION TVS. ONGOING PRESS COVERAGE HAS KEPT THE ISSUE ON THE FRONT BURNER, FUELED BY QADHAFI'S REPORTED DECEMBER 30 STATEMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR LIBYAN VICTIMS WAS EMPTY AND THAT THE NURSES SHOULD NOT BE FREED WHILE CONVICTED LOCKERBIE BOMBER ABEL BASET EL-MEGRAHI REMAINED IN PRISON. ALTHOUGH REF. A REPORTS THAT QADHAFI DID NOT DIRECTLY LINK THE FATE OF THE NURSES TO THE PANAM BOMBER, THE BULGARIAN PRESS HAS FAILED TO SEE THIS DISTINCTION. COMMON THEMES IN THE PRESS INCLUDE SPECULATION THAT EU MEMBERSHIP WILL BRING INCREASED PRESSURE TO BEAR ON LIBYA, CHARACTERIZATION OF THE NURSES AS "HOSTAGES" OF LIBYA'S DEMAND FOR FINANCIAL COMPENSATION, AND FEARS THAT BULGARIA'S U.S. AND EU ALLIES MAY BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA THAN THE FATE OF THE NURSES.


4. (C) POLITICIANS HAVE WASTED NO TIME IN ATTEMPTING TO SEIZE THIS NATIONAL MOOD. PRESIDENT PARVANOV USED HIS ANNUAL NEW YEARS EVE ADDRESS TO STRESS THAT THE IMPRISONED BULGARIANS WERE "NOT...MEDICS, BUT OUR SISTERS." IN A SEPARATE INTERVIEW ON JANUARY 7, HE DESCRIBED THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS AS GOING "BACK TO THE BEGINNING" AND SAID THAT BULGARIA WOULD CONSIDER ALL DIPLOMATIC AND POLITICAL OPTIONS IN ITS ATTEMPT TO WIN THE NURSES' FREEDOM. ZLATIN TRAPKOV, THE PRESIDENT'S CHIEF FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR, TOLD THE CHARGE ON JANUARY 5 THAT THE NURSES ISSUE WAS COMPLETELY DOMINATING THE GOVERNMENT. AN INCREASINGLY ANGRY PUBLIC MOOD HAS HAMPERED POLITICAL LEADERS' ABILITY (AND IN MANY CASES DESIRE) TO CONTINUE TO SEEK COMPROMISE.

A LOUDER VOICE FOR AMERICA?
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5. (C) PRIME MINISTER STANISHEV'S MAIN FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR, VALENTIN RADOMIRSKI, WAS MORE SPECIFIC, TELLING THE CDA THAT WHILE HE UNDERSTANDS OUR POSITION VIS-A-VIS LIBYA, WE NEED TO BE MORE VOCAL AND VISIBLE ON THE ISSUE FOR THE SAKE OF OUR INTERESTS IN BULGARIA. THE BULGARIAN PRESS SEEMS TO BE DRAWING A SIMILAR CONCLUSION, GIVING EXTENSIVE COVERAGE TO A JANUARY 3 ARTICLE IN THE U.S. JOURNAL NATURE WHICH CONTRASTED HARSH EU CONDEMNATIONS OF THE LIBYAN COURT RULING WITH AMERICAN EXPRESSIONS OF "DISAPPOINTMENT."

MOVING FORWARD
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6. (S) AS IT RECONSIDERS ITS STRATEGY, THE GOB'S IMMEDIATE INSTINCT IS TO HUDDLE WITH ITS FRIENDS. IT HAS INVITED THE U.S., UK, GERMANY, FRANCE AND LIBYA FOR TALKS IN SOFIA ON JANUARY 15-16. WHILE THE BULGARIANS STRONGLY DOUBT THE LIBYANS WILL ATTEND, THEY HAVE ASKED US TO USE OUR CHANNELS AND "LEVERAGE" TO ENCOURAGE THEM. EVEN IF THEY DON'T ATTEND, THE GOB WANTS TO USE THE MEETING TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT SITUATION AND CONSIDER NEXT STEPS WITH EURO-ATLANTIC ALLIES FOLLOWING THE LIBYAN FOREIGN MINISTRY'S MEMO AND QADHAFI'S STATEMENTS.


7. (C) THE GOB IS ALSO ATTEMPTING TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON ITS PUBLIC PLEDGE TO SUPPORT THE NURSES' LEGAL DEFENSE. PRESS REPORTS CLAIM THAT THE MEDICS' LEGAL TEAM WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE THEIR CASE IS REVIEWED BY THE LIBYAN SUPREME COURT, AND MINISTRY OF JUSTICE SOURCES CONFIRM THAT DEPUTY JUSTICE MINISTER MARGARIT GEORGIEV WILL VISIT TRIPOLI FROM JANUARY 11-16 TO MEET THE DETAINEES AND DISCUSS THEIR LEGAL STRATEGY. THE NURSES' FAMILY MEMBERS HAVE ALREADY OBTAINED LIBYAN VISAS AND PERMISSION TO VISIT THEIR RELATIVES. THEY WILL DEPART FOR LIBYA ON JANUARY 9 FOR A ONE WEEK STAY.


8. (C) A POTENTIAL WILD CARD IN BULGARIA'S STRATEGY IS THE CHIEF PROSECUTOR'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF AN INVESTIGATION INTO TORTURE OF THE BULGARIAN MEDICS BY LIBYAN OFFICIALS. CONTACTS WITHIN THE PROSECUTION SERVICE TELL US THAT THE INVESTIGATION IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON COLLECTING "THIRD-PARTY TESTIMONY" FROM THE NURSES' FAMILIES. THE MOVE IS LIKELY MORE POLITICAL THAN JUDICIAL -- PROSECUTORS REALIZE THAT ANY SUCH INVESTIGATION IS SYMBOLIC AT BEST, AS IT WOULD RELY ON LETTERS ROGATORY FOR COLLECTION OF NECESSARY EVIDENCE FROM LIBYA. (NOTE: CHIEF PROSECUTOR BORIS VELCHEV WORKED EXTENSIVELY ON THE NURSES' CASE IN HIS PREVIOUS POST AS LEGAL ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT.)

COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST:
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9. (C) THE LIBYAN COURT'S DECISION CAME AS NO SURPRISE TO BULGARIAN LEADERS, BUT UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG STATEMENTS FROM THE EU AND EUROPEAN LEADERS -- AS WELL AS QADHAFI'S OWN TOUGH RHETORIC -- HAVE PUSHED BULGARIAN OFFICIALS TO ABANDON THE MORE RESTRAINED APPROACH WE HAD COUNSELED DURING FM KALFIN'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON. BULGARIAN LEADERS ARE CLEARLY DISCOURAGED AT THE LACK OF RESULTS FROM THEIR PATIENT POLICY, WHILE "QUIET DIPLOMACY" IS ALL BUT DISCREDITED AMONG THE BULGARIAN PUBLIC. IN ORDER TO KEEP BULGARIAN POLICY ON TRACK, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND PARTICIPATION BY A DEPARTMENT EXPERT AT BULGARIA'S PLANNED CONSULTATIONS ON JANUARY 15-17. IN THE MEANTIME, WE APPRECIATE EMBASSY TRIPOLI'S CONTINUING ANALYSIS ON HOW THE TOUGH BULGARIAN AND EUROPEAN REACTION TO DEVELOPMENTS IN LIBYA IS INFLUENCING LIBYAN THINKING AND ACTIONS ON THE NURSES' CASE.

BEYRLE