KOSOVO: BULGARIANS ENCOURAGED BY MODERATE RHETORIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000255 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE BLACK AND EUR/NCE NORDBERG E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SR BU SUBJECT: KOSOVO: BULGARIANS ENCOURAGED BY MODERATE RHETORIC IN BELGRADE Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Parvanov told the Ambassador that on his one-day visit to Serbia February 21 he found the Serbs to be much less hardline in their rhetoric in private. His overarching message to Belgrade's leaders was that the Ahtisaari plan is a good proposal and a "necessary basis for making progress." In a further readout, MFA Director for Europe 1 Kosio Kitipov told us that none of Serbia's leaders appear to know exactly what Russia is planning to do regarding Kosovo. Belgrade expects the U.S. to immediately recognize Kosovo's independence and assumes the EU will follow shortly thereafter, but would prefer Brussels and other member states to briefly delay their recognition of the new state. Kitipov said Kostunica, Tadic and Dinkic have agreed in private to form a coalition, but had no information on whether leaders prefer to form the government before or after the Kosovo decision. END SUMMARY "SERB VIEWS EVOLVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION" -------------- ¶2. (C) Parvanov told the Ambassador and USNAVEUR ADM Ulrich in their February 22 meeting that he had deliberately visited Serbia as his first foreign trip of his second term. Parvanov met with Kostunica, Tadic and the head of the G17 party, Mladen Dinkic. Parvanov delivered the message that the Ahtisaari plan is a good proposal and "solid basis for further talks." He encouraged Belgrade to now participate constructively in the next round. Parvanov was surprised by the more moderate rhetoric of Tadic and particularly Kostunica during their private meetings. Kostunica took his message on Ahtisaari's plan "well" in contrast with their earlier discussions. Parvanov said the views of Serbian leaders seem to be evolving in the right direction, despite their continuing negative remarks in public. Parvanov told Kostunica that he had made a big mistake by refusing to meet with Ahtisaari. Kostunica "admitted his mistake," but said the refusal was based on his lack of legitimacy after he and his government resigned. Parvanov said there was no talk of breaking diplomatic relations with countries that recognize Kosovar independence, despite Kostunica's campaign platform to the contrary. ¶3. (C) Parvanov told the Ambassador he had asked plainly whether Serb leaders thought it would be better if an outcome on Kosovo came before or after a government was formed; he received no clear answers. His sense was that "before" was probably better for them, and this would also give them time for some "healing" before the Presidential elections. Parvanov described Tadic as a modern leader with courage, who desires to fully resolve the Kosovo issue but who needs a lot of support. SERBS EAGER TO ENGAGE BUT ALSO TO DELAY PROCESS -------------- -- ¶4. (C) MFA Europe 1 Director Kosio Kitipov, in a subsequent readout of the trip, told us the Serbs plan to be very active on talks in Vienna, scrutinizing every section and paragraph of the proposal. If an agreement cannot be reached in Vienna, the Serbs say they are prepared to continue consultations after Vienna under the framework of the Security Council. This suggests Serbia still is eager to prolong the process, admitted Kitipov. He said Parvanov told Serb leaders that Bulgaria will insist on strong supervision of Kosovo from the EU, NATO and the international community. He also emphasized the need for more active links between Serbia and other EU member states, including the German presidency. ¶5. (C) Leaders like Dinkic stressed the importance of Northern Kosovo's "economic sovereignty" and envision the area's economic ties being closely linked to Serbia and not going directly through Pristina. In the event Kosovars declare independence following an international decision on the province, Serb leaders expressed hope that the EU and EU countries would not be the first to recognize Kosovo's independence. They expect the United States to quickly recognize Kosovo but were hoping--and presumably lobbying--EU member states to not be a rush to recognize the new state. Regarding Russia, none of Serbia's leaders have a clear picture of Moscow's next steps concerning Kosovo, remarked Kitipov. ¶6. (C) Kitipov said Kostunica, Tadic and Dinkic have agreed "behind closed doors" to form a government, possibly by mid-March. While Kostunica would be prime minister, Tadic and his party expect to play a prominent role in the SOFIA 00000255 002 OF 002 government and to receive several key ministries such as the Foreign or Interior Ministry. Kitipov noted that Tadic is eager to make quick reforms to the police and Interior Ministry in an effort to capture Mladic or at least verify if he still is in Serbia. Tadic remains optimistic about steering Serbia towards its goal of EU membership, envisioning Serbia joining the EU in 2012 at the same time as Croatia. BEYRLE