KOSOVO: BULGARIANS ENCOURAGED BY MODERATE RHETORIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000255

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE BLACK AND EUR/NCE NORDBERG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR BU
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: BULGARIANS ENCOURAGED BY MODERATE RHETORIC
IN BELGRADE

Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Parvanov told the Ambassador that
on his one-day visit to Serbia February 21 he found the Serbs
to be much less hardline in their rhetoric in private. His
overarching message to Belgrade's leaders was that the
Ahtisaari plan is a good proposal and a "necessary basis for
making progress." In a further readout, MFA Director for
Europe 1 Kosio Kitipov told us that none of Serbia's leaders
appear to know exactly what Russia is planning to do
regarding Kosovo. Belgrade expects the U.S. to immediately
recognize Kosovo's independence and assumes the EU will
follow shortly thereafter, but would prefer Brussels and
other member states to briefly delay their recognition of the
new state. Kitipov said Kostunica, Tadic and Dinkic have
agreed in private to form a coalition, but had no information
on whether leaders prefer to form the government before or
after the Kosovo decision. END SUMMARY

"SERB VIEWS EVOLVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION"
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2. (C) Parvanov told the Ambassador and USNAVEUR ADM Ulrich
in their February 22 meeting that he had deliberately visited
Serbia as his first foreign trip of his second term.
Parvanov met with Kostunica, Tadic and the head of the G17
party, Mladen Dinkic. Parvanov delivered the message that
the Ahtisaari plan is a good proposal and "solid basis for
further talks." He encouraged Belgrade to now participate
constructively in the next round. Parvanov was surprised by
the more moderate rhetoric of Tadic and particularly
Kostunica during their private meetings. Kostunica took his
message on Ahtisaari's plan "well" in contrast with their
earlier discussions. Parvanov said the views of Serbian
leaders seem to be evolving in the right direction, despite
their continuing negative remarks in public. Parvanov told
Kostunica that he had made a big mistake by refusing to meet
with Ahtisaari. Kostunica "admitted his mistake," but said
the refusal was based on his lack of legitimacy after he and
his government resigned. Parvanov said there was no talk of
breaking diplomatic relations with countries that recognize
Kosovar independence, despite Kostunica's campaign platform
to the contrary.


3. (C) Parvanov told the Ambassador he had asked plainly
whether Serb leaders thought it would be better if an outcome
on Kosovo came before or after a government was formed; he
received no clear answers. His sense was that "before" was
probably better for them, and this would also give them time
for some "healing" before the Presidential elections.
Parvanov described Tadic as a modern leader with courage, who
desires to fully resolve the Kosovo issue but who needs a lot
of support.

SERBS EAGER TO ENGAGE BUT ALSO TO DELAY PROCESS
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4. (C) MFA Europe 1 Director Kosio Kitipov, in a subsequent
readout of the trip, told us the Serbs plan to be very active
on talks in Vienna, scrutinizing every section and paragraph
of the proposal. If an agreement cannot be reached in
Vienna, the Serbs say they are prepared to continue
consultations after Vienna under the framework of the
Security Council. This suggests Serbia still is eager to
prolong the process, admitted Kitipov. He said Parvanov told
Serb leaders that Bulgaria will insist on strong supervision
of Kosovo from the EU, NATO and the international community.
He also emphasized the need for more active links between
Serbia and other EU member states, including the German
presidency.


5. (C) Leaders like Dinkic stressed the importance of
Northern Kosovo's "economic sovereignty" and envision the
area's economic ties being closely linked to Serbia and not
going directly through Pristina. In the event Kosovars
declare independence following an international decision on
the province, Serb leaders expressed hope that the EU and EU
countries would not be the first to recognize Kosovo's
independence. They expect the United States to quickly
recognize Kosovo but were hoping--and presumably lobbying--EU
member states to not be a rush to recognize the new state.
Regarding Russia, none of Serbia's leaders have a clear
picture of Moscow's next steps concerning Kosovo, remarked
Kitipov.


6. (C) Kitipov said Kostunica, Tadic and Dinkic have agreed
"behind closed doors" to form a government, possibly by
mid-March. While Kostunica would be prime minister, Tadic
and his party expect to play a prominent role in the

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government and to receive several key ministries such as the
Foreign or Interior Ministry. Kitipov noted that Tadic is
eager to make quick reforms to the police and Interior
Ministry in an effort to capture Mladic or at least verify if
he still is in Serbia. Tadic remains optimistic about
steering Serbia towards its goal of EU membership,
envisioning Serbia joining the EU in 2012 at the same time as
Croatia.
BEYRLE