BULGARIA READY TO HELP AHTISAARI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000172 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR/SCT, EUR/ERA, AND EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV UN UNMIK YI BG SUBJECT: BULGARIA READY TO HELP AHTISAARI REF: STATE 15235 Classified By: DCM Alex Karagiannis for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ahtisaari deputy Albert Rohan asked Bulgarian Foreign Minister Kalfin February 7 to try to convince Bucharest to be more supportive of Ahtisaari's plan. In a subsequent conversation, Prime Minister Stanishev's Foreign Policy Advisor flagged for us the issue of the Kosovo-Macedonia border as one that Ahtisaari needs to get right in order to avoid destablizing Bulgaria's southwestern neighbor. Sofia is also concered about a possible alliance between Kostunica and the Radicals. The Stanishev government is committed to assisting the diplomatic process in any way that Ahtisaari and Bulgaria's allies--particularly the U.S.--deem appropriate. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) We delivered reftel letter from PDAS Volker to his V-10 counterparts on February 8, discussing Kosovo in both the MFA and the Prime Minister's office. Iva Kruleva, the MFA's chief expert on Kosovo, emphasized that Bulgaria fully supports Ahtisaari's proposal and timeline. She said officials here in fact would prefer an accelerated timeline and wished the UN resolution could be passed sooner before a government in Serbia is formed. Bulgaria is afraid that Kostunica is considering an alliance with the Radicals and officials see little daylight between Kostunica's recent hardline positions on Kosovo and the Radicals. Kruleva downplayed any Bulgarian concerns over Kostunica's threat to reconsider relations with countries that recognize Kosovo. She said a UN resolution would make it easier for Bulgaria to recognize the new state and, although Sofia places a high value on its relations with Belgrade, it could not accept such conditions. ¶3. (C) Bulgarian officials are pleased that Ahtisaari's proposal includes a plan to clearly demarcate Kosovo's borders. Prime Minister Stanishev's Foreign Policy Advisor, Valentin Radomirski, told us February 8 that Bulgaria had strongly opposed removing from Ahtisaari's plan the reference to the 2001 agreement on the demarcation of the border between Kosovo and Macedonia. Regarding the EU, Bulgaria firmly agrees with the need for the EU to be unified on Kosovo. Kruleva also gave us a readout on the February 7 visit to Sofia of Ahtisaari's deputy, Albert Rohan. According to Kruleva, Rohan asked for Bulgaria's help in trying to convince its neighbor Romania to not fall out of line. Foreign Minister Kalfin agreed to this request, but said the recent resignation of Romania's Foreign Minister could inhibit these efforts. Rohan also sought Bulgaria's views on what Russia might be seeking for its support in the UNSC. Bulgarian officials believe Russia wants to link Kosovo to other issues unrelated to Serbia, possibly to Georgian accession to NATO, as some Austrian officials have speculated. ¶4. (SBU) After his meeting with Rohan, Kalfin publicly reiterated Bulgaria's full support for Ahtisaari and his team. Kalfin also called on Belgrade and Pristina to constructively engage in the process. The Foreign Minister said Bulgaria would stay actively involved in this issue and that Sofia's main concern regarding Kosovo is to maintain regional security. ¶5. (C) COMMENT. Judging from our conversations with Radomirski and other officials, Bulgaria's greatest fears with regards to an independent Kosovo are possible destabilization of neighboring Macedonia, the radicalization of Serbian politics, and the fear that Kosovo could become a black hole of crime and criminality in Europe if its economic and demographic problems are not addressed. Of these fears, the first is perhaps more viscerally felt here than in countries further afield because of Bulgaria's sometimes-troubled "historical kinship" with its southwestern neighbor. Despite these concerns--or perhaps because of them--Bulgaria is fully on board with Ahtisaari's proposals and is willing to play an active role in convincing Belgrade and others to accept them. KARAGIANNIS