LOCAL ELECTION RUN-OFFS CONFIRM GERB, BSP AS BULGARIA'S

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001290 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BU SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION RUN-OFFS CONFIRM GERB, BSP AS BULGARIA'S LEADING PARTIES Ref: (A)SOFIA 1272, (B) SOFIA 1176 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov's GERB party gained strength in the run-off elections in major towns on November 4, asserting itself as a national political force to rival the ruling Socialists. In the first local elections since its formation in 2006, GERB candidates won against both center-right and Socialist incumbents. Although losing some of its strongholds to GERB, PM Sergei Stanishev's Socialists scored relatively well, winning some hotly contested run-offs. Consolidated results for the two rounds show the Socialists winning 11 mayoral seats and GERB winning 10. As in the first round, the Socialists and GERB both claimed victory. Borissov, whose party won in the biggest cities, said GERB's success has redefined the political status quo and called for early general elections. Stanishev ruled out stepping down, saying the ruling three-party coalition was set to complete its full term in office through mid-2009. Turnout was around 48 percent in the second round, up from 42 percent a week ago. Vote buying, spurred by the prospect of EU funds for municipalities next year, reached unprecedented levels and will likely lead to court challenges in a number of districts. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) Borissov's GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria),which won the races in Bulgaria's two biggest cities a week ago, scored new gains in the November 4 run-offs, winning the mayoral seats in several "red" strongholds. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP),which dominates the incumbent three-party coalition, managed to hold on to a number of towns with incumbent BSP mayors, and won hotly contested races in some regional centers where its candidates were seen as underdogs. Consolidated results from the two rounds of the election show that candidates backed by BSP won in 11 out of the country's 27 regional centers, GERB won in 10, candidates of the old center-right parties won five races, and the predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) held on to its traditional stronghold Kurdzhali in southeastern Bulgaria. (Note: Calculation is based on preliminary results of the run-offs.) As in the first round of the elections, both the Socialists and GERB claimed victory. The Socialists claim national victory based on wining the biggest number of seats for municipal counselors -- 1,265 to GERB's 1,011. GERB won in larger towns where more votes are needed to elect one city counselor and claimed victory on the basis of garnering the biggest number of votes in the proportional vote for municipal counselors -- some 601,000 compared to some 523,000 for the BSP. BORISSOV SEEKS EARLY GENERAL ELECTIONS ¶3. (SBU) Speaking to local media after the results of the run-offs were announced, Borissov, who won outright re-election a week ago, said the outcome of the vote "clearly showed" that GERB had become Bulgaria's leading political force. He said GERB's election success redefined the political status quo, and called for early elections next spring, noting that "it was not normal for Bulgaria's number one political force not to be represented in parliament." Borissov repeated his vow not to use street pressure to trigger early elections. Instead, he advised the PM, who has a degree in history, to put his name in history books by stepping down "to save his party and the country." Borissov, who has portrayed himself as a savior of the center-right, said GERB was the alternative to the old center-right "parties of the transition," suggesting their time had passed. PM VOWS GOVERNMENT WILL COMPLETE TERM IN OFFICE ¶4. (SBU) PM Stanishev struck a realistic note, admitting at an election night conference that GERB has emerged as a major political force. The PM dismissed Borissov's calls to step down, saying the three-party coalition was set to complete its full term in office. "The objective results of the election give no grounds for early election," Stanishev said, adding that the ruling coalition had won more municipal counselors than all of the other political parties combined. The Socialist Party had achieved a "serious success" in the local vote, and was the de facto winner, having won the biggest number of municipal counselors and municipal mayors nationwide. Stanishev noted that the BSP had done quite well in the current political context, saying that the 2007 local election was the first Bulgarian vote held amid a nationwide strike. Stanishev also noted that the BSP bucked a trend in post-communist Europe in which ruling parties suffered severe election losses in the first year following EU accession. ¶5. (SBU) The PM blasted GERB as a populist party with an unclear ideology, saying that GERB's campaign was based on unrealistic promises. If general elections were held now, GERB would win at most 65-70 MP seats in the 240-seat parliament, and would need to seek partners for coalition alliances, Stanishev said. Despite gloomy forecasts for social unrest in the coming winter, he said the government would remain in office until mid-2009 and warned against hasty comparisons with the winter of 1997, when a BSP government was toppled by mass street protests. SOFIA 00001290 002 OF 002 OLD CENTER-RIGHT STILL ALIVE ¶6. (SBU) The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB) -- performed relatively well in the run-offs, adding three mayoral seats in major towns to the two races won in the first round. The relatively good performance triggered hopes for a revival of the old center-right that has been in disarray since ¶2001. Extreme nationalist party Ataka, which in some races sided with the center-right candidates for the run-offs, failed to win its own mayoral seat in any of the regional centers. The group said it would seek annulment of the vote due to widespread election fraud and vote buying. The National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) failed to win a mayoral seat in any of the major towns, which comes as no surprise with party infighting escalating between the two rounds of the vote. ELECTION MARRED BY MASSIVE VOTE-BUYING ¶7. (SBU) As in the first round, large scale vote-buying seriously marred the run-off vote despite massive police efforts. The phenomenon was especially widespread in Roma areas across the country and in municipalities on the Black Sea coast where local "business parties" funded by shadowy "entrepreneurs" contested the elections. Local TV stations showed footage of vote buyers freely talking about their vote buying plans and methods of marking ballots. People told reporters in front of TV cameras they were paid for votes in front of the polling stations, with prices for a vote ranging from five levs (USD 3.6) to 200 levs (USD 146). A press report described a method of rendering ballots invalid, called "Milosevic's nail," in which a member of the municipal electoral commission counting the ballots invalidates the ballot by marking it with a pen cartridge hidden in the palm. More than 20 inquiries were launched into vote-buying allegations after the first-round vote and 38 persons suspected of vote buying were arrested on November 4, said the authorities. The Civic Initiative for Free and Democratic Elections, an NGO that monitors voting, said that results in some 100 municipalities are likely to be challenged in court due to various irregularities. The Central Electoral Commission, which organizes and supervises the vote, said that despite the irregularities the election is legitimate. PM Stanishev said that although vote-buying is not a new practice, it had escalated to new levels as political parties and business circles sought to gain access to municipal power, set to manage hundreds of millions of euros in EU funds starting next year. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Although falling short of its own aspirations for a more sweeping victory, the 11-month-old GERB party has asserted itself as the rising force on Bulgaria's political scene, with support rivaling, if not topping, that of the Socialists. GERB's lack of parliamentary representation will create political tensions, but those tensions alone are unlikely to trigger an early vote without an escalation in social unrest or BSP infighting. Stanishev has a good chance of completing a full term in office, but an early election cannot be completely ruled out, given the track record of other states that saw a change in government following EU accession. The incumbent government risks becoming dysfunctional if the PM focuses only on his internal balancing act and not on making changes to optimize the work of his cabinet. In that regard, we do not rule out the possibility of rejiggering of ministerial portfolios over the next several weeks. END COMMENT.