Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SOFIA1259
2007-10-24 12:54:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:
RULING SOCIALISTS FACE POPULIST GERB CHALLENGE IN OCT 28 LOCAL VOTE
how-toVZCZCXRO7971 PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHSF #1259/01 2971254 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 241254Z OCT 07 FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4447 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SOFIA 001259
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: RULING SOCIALISTS FACE POPULIST GERB CHALLENGE IN OCT 28 LOCAL VOTE
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1176, (B) SOFIA 678, (C) SOFIA 1007
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SOFIA 001259
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: RULING SOCIALISTS FACE POPULIST GERB CHALLENGE IN OCT 28 LOCAL VOTE
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1176, (B) SOFIA 678, (C) SOFIA 1007
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Sergei Stanishev's ruling socialists square off against GERB, the new populist party of Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov, in the election for mayors and municipal counselors on October 28. Running on populist, anti-government rhetoric, GERB is set to win mayoral races in Sofia and Plovdiv, the two biggest cities, and take a sizable share of municipal counselor seats. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is fighting to keep its traditionally strong representation at the local level and to avoid another loss to GERB following the May election for members of the European Parliament. An escalating teachers' strike and party infighting are putting the Socialists under further pressure. The vote is a survival test for the weakened traditional center-right parties as well. The overall stakes are even higher this year as the municipalities will soon manage hundreds of millions of euros in EU funds. The outcome of the vote will lay the ground for the next general election and could reshape the domestic political landscape. A big GERB victory may shake PM Stanishev's government but would not likely lead to an early general election. END SUMMARY
THE BSP-GERB FACE OFF
2. (SBU) Bulgarians will elect mayors and municipal counselors in 264 municipalities for a four-year (Ref. A). The Socialists, who dominate the ruling three-party coalition, face a strong challenge from the 10-month-old party of the charismatic but controversial Sofia mayor. The rising force on the domestic political scene, Borissov's GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) has already edged out the Socialists as the most popular party. October polls show nationwide support for GERB at 24 percent against 22 percent for the BSP. Borissov has made no secret of his ambition to use the local vote as a springboard to the PM's post. For GERB, the local vote is a learning exercise in party building and an opportunity to assert itself as Bulgaria's leading party after its narrow victory in the May elections for members of the European Parliament (Ref. B). The party has no representation in parliament having been established in 2006, well after 2005 national elections. It owes its popularity almost entirely to Borissov's charisma and its campaign has been largely a one-man show in which the Sofia mayor plays the lead. With a shortage of prominent candidates at the local level, the Sofia Mayor has led a national campaign more appropriate for parliamentary elections. He portrays his party as the only alternative to the three-party coalition, seeking to capture the lion's share of the protest vote. Using strong pro-U.S. and pro-EU rhetoric, GERB advertises itself as a center-right party. As part of its campaign GERB released the governing program of a future GERB-led government, a mix of sound economic ideas and populist promises that many believe is unrealistic but has strong appeal for disillusioned voters.
3. (SBU) The BPS's campaign has been focused largely on local issues and oriented towards the party base. As GERB gains strength, the BSP is struggling to win back its core electorate, mostly elderly communists. Many of them feel betrayed by the BSP-led government, which has pursued reformist economic policies. BSP officials also told us the party was struggling to sort out infighting over the mayoral nominations in 34 regional branches. An escalating teachers' strike has further shaken the Socialists. A no-confidence vote introduced by the center-right parties was defeated on October 23, but the high-profile debate over the government's handling of the strike could affect the BSP showing. An ongoing conflict between PM Stanishev and influential BSP Interior Minister Petkov over restructuring of the country's security services puts further pressure on the BSP (Ref. C). The party holds 12 of the country's 27 regional centers and has a number of popular mayors who stand a good chance of being re-elected. To win more mayoral seats, the BSP has entered a number of controversial local coalitions, which has stirred passions within the party but could allow it to achieve a better result.
ETHNIC TURKS, NATIONALISTS RETAIN BASE
4. (SBU) This year's vote also marks the local election debut of extreme nationalist party Ataka, the surprise of the 2005 general elections. The party, which is strongly anti-U.S., is likely to retain its highly energized base although some of its supporters may migrate to GERB. Ataka got a boost by the presence of French far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen at the launch of its campaign on September 30. The party has generally softened its xenophobic language, campaigning largely on anti-government rhetoric and exploiting sensitive social issues such as the plight of the elderly and of those who have suffered from the transition from communism. Even some mainstream voters agree with its vocal criticism of the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF),largely viewed as corrupt. A junior coalition partner in the government, the MRF will likely retain its base in regions with a predominantly ethic Turkish population. The vote in those areas will be watched closely because of the MRF's practice of bussing dual citizens from Turkey to vote for the MRF. The phenomenon, known as "electoral tourism", has stirred passions among ethic Bulgarians and prompted legal changes aimed at curbing this practice (Ref. A). Support for the MRF and Ataka is almost on par at around 7.0 percent, according to polls in October.
OLD CENTER-RIGHT STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE
5. (SBU) The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (DSB) -- look to bounce back after losing every election since 2001. Some of the seven incumbent center-right mayors stand a good chance of being reelected. The race in Sofia, where the UDF and DSB have named a joint mayoral candidate, could give an impetus for co-operation on a national level if he makes it to a run-off. A weak showing in the local election will likely accelerate these parties' descent (already under five percent) into irrelevance as GERB becomes the leading center-right power in Bulgaria.
6. (SBU) Ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS),a junior partner in the government, may fail to win a single mayoral seat in any major center. The former King long ago lost his halo and support for his group has plummeted to two percent amid infighting and a legal dispute about the legitimacy of party leadership.
7. (SBU) This year's vote is also contested by a record-high number of so-called "business parties" (26 out of a total of 88). These are regional parties registered especially for the vote and formally or informally linked to local businesses seeking direct representation in the local administrations. This interest comes from the municipalities' powers to manage hundreds of millions of euros in EU structural funds.
THE SOFIA RACE: TWO FORMER GENERALS AND A BANKER
8. (U) A record field of 44 candidates target the mayoral seat in Sofia, a city of some two million which has been a center-right stronghold since communism collapsed. The main contenders -- two former generals (from the Interior Ministry and National Intelligence Service) and a Swiss-born banker -- promise an intriguing race. According to all polls, incumbent Mayor Borissov will win re-election, if not directly on October 28 then certainly in a run-off on November 4. Below are profiles of the three front-runners.
9. (SBU) Gen. BOIKO BORISSOV, 48, who won Sofia's by-election two years ago, is one of Bulgaria's most popular officials, with approval ratings exceeding 60 percent. Before becoming Sofia mayor in November 2005, he served for four years as Interior Ministry Chief Secretary. He was appointed to the post by ex-PM Saxe-Coburg Gotha, whom Borissov previously served as a personal bodyguard. Borissov's Armani-clad tough-guy image, plain language, and close ties with local media contribute to the popularity and high profile of the former firefighter and national karate champion. As a result, Borissov's checkered past, involving at least superficial links to 1990's organized crime groups, has not marred his popularity. His tenure at city hall has been overshadowed by chronic problems with garbage collection and frequent rows with the Municipal Council but his mixed record has not affected his popularity. He portrays himself as an alternative to the political status quo. Campaigning under the motto "Open Government," he promises new moral and transparent governance. His opponents point to his past connections with strong-arm groups and unsavory business interests. Borissov, who has been extraordinarily helpful to the U.S. Mission both at the ministry and the mayoral office, does not miss an opportunity to boast about his "special ties" with the U.S. The incumbent mayor attracts votes from both the left and the center-right, from all age groups and social strata but his electorate is soft and less mobilized than that of his major opponents.
10. (SBU) Gen. BRIGO ASPARUHOV, 62, a Soviet-trained communist-era spy who headed the National Intelligence Service (NIS) in 1991-1997, is one of the most controversial figures within the BSP. His tenure as NIS chief is remembered mostly for its alleged involvement in bringing down the first center-right government of Philip Dimitrov in 1992. After he left the service, Asparuhov was investigated for destroying sensitive communist State Security files but the charges were later dropped. In 2003, the intent of then PM Saxe-Coburg to appoint Asparuhov as his security advisor triggered vocal opposition in Sofia as well as NATO capitals. A leading figure in the BSP's hardline faction known as the Generals' Movement, Asparuhov has been lately sidelined by the party leadership. His reappearance on the political stage has led to endless speculation. BSP insiders explain PM Stanishev's surprise support for Asparuhov's nomination as a tactical ploy to confront Borissov with an equally tough candidate - a general, well aware of the former bodyguard's questionable past and capable of exposing it. BSP officials told us another reason for the PM to bring Asparuhov back in the game could be Stanishev's desire to secure the Generals' support in his ongoing battle with Minister Petkov for control over the secret services. Asparuhov, who campaigns under the motto "Dialogue and Responsibility," could mobilize the BSP base and possibly make it to the second round. He does not appeal to the broader electorate and his chances of winning the race are minimal.
11. (SBU) MARTIN ZAIMOV, 45, a respected financier who served as Deputy Central Bank Governor in 1997-2003, is the joint nominee of the center-right UDF and DSB. Born in Switzerland to a Bulgarian mother and a British father, he has a degree in macroeconomics from the London School of Economics. Zaimov is credited for being a champion for the introduction of the currency board in 1997, which laid the groundwork for Bulgaria's current financial stability. His grandfather Vladimir Zaimov, shot by the authorities in 1942 after being found guilty of spying for the Soviet Union, was regarded by the communist regime as one of Bulgaria's greatest communist heroes. Interestingly enough, Zaimov's campaign manager says this family link might be a plus in the election, as it could help attract some leftist voters in case he makes it to a run-off. Zaimov, whose campaign motto is "I Love Sofia," has attacked Borissov for his ineffective use of funds and mismanagement of municipal property. More of a technocrat than a politician, Zaimov is less known to the broader public than his opponents. He enjoys the support of the staunch center-right but his inability to talk in plain language about Sofia's problems may make it difficult for him to reach the broader electorate.
"THUGS" VS "CRETINS"
12. (SBU) The campaign, which started September 26, took an interesting turn last week when a personal row between the two generals running for Sofia mayor turned into a mud-slinging contest, overshadowing any discussion on the issues of Sofia. Asparuhov fired the first shot, calling Borissov "a man with questionable past and unclear future" and vowing not to allow a man with ties to organized crime to govern Sofia or Bulgaria. "A thug remains a thug even with general's epaulettes," said another senior Socialist, adding that the incumbent mayor has "missed several stages in human development." Borissov fired back by calling them "cretins" and then dropped the bomb, announcing that several weeks ago Asparuhov had begged him to join his party. Zaimov has stayed away from the fray, choosing instead to campaign on issues such as wireless internet and green Sofia. His advisors told us that Zaimov may bring up the issue of Borissov's controversial past at the final stage of the campaign.
13. (SBU) Other candidates in Sofia include NMSS MP Antonia Parvanova, Ataka's Slavi Binev, who is a member of the European Parliament and owner of several striptease bars and is also known for his ties to organized crime, and colorful basketball coach Konstantin Papazov. Polls show that none of them have a realistic chance of winning.
Other Cities
14. (U) Local factors and personalities play an important role in local elections, in which political parties form different coalitions in different municipalities. Many mayoral candidates are backed by multi-party coalitions, or party candidates run as independents to gain broader support. Here are brief descriptions of the key mayoral races:
15. (SBU) PLOVDIV -- Bulgaria's second biggest city has been a traditional center-right stronghold since communism collapsed; a Socialist breakthrough in this election is unlikely. The clear front-runner is GERB candidate Slavcho Atanasov and the only question is whether he will win in the first or second round against Socialist MP Zahari Georgiev. Incumbent Mayor Ivan Chomakov, one of UDF's landmark mayors, is not running for re-election due to sagging popularity amid allegations of corruption.
16. (SBU) VARNA -- Incumbent Mayor Kiril Yordanov stands a good chance of winning a third term in office with support from the BSP. He is also allegedly backed by organized crime group TIM, which dominates Bulgaria's largest Black Sea city. The race marks the return to politics of Gen. Dimo Gyaurov, a former center-right MP who served as intelligence chief in 1997-2003. He is the joint candidate of UDF, DSB and NMSS.
17. (SBU) BURGAS -- The race in this southern Black Sea city is a rare case of partnership between GERB and Kostov's DSB. Their candidate, Dimitar Nikolov, poses a challenge to incumbent Mayor Yoan Kostadinov who is running for a fourth term in office with support from the BSP. Supporters of extreme nationalist Ataka, which enjoys solid support in Burgas, may decide the outcome of a possible run-off.
18. (SBU) KURDZHALI -- This southeastern town with its predominantly ethnic Turkish population is a traditional stronghold of the MRF whose Mayor Hasan Azis is the leading candidate. His main opponents are the candidate of a broad coalition centered around BSP and Ataka and the joint nominee of GERB and several center-right forces. A possible run-off will likely be decided by a vote along ethic lines.
19. (SBU) ROUSSE -- The Danube city's incumbent Mayor Bozhidar Yotov, BSP, is leading the polls. His main opponent is GERB's candidate Vanyu Tanov, the former chief of the service for fighting against organized crime making a political debut.
20. (SBU) BLAGOEVGRAD -- The race in this southwestern town is dominated by two leftist candidates: incumbent Mayor Lazar Prichkapov, who is the former regional communist party chief, and Socialist MP Kostadin Paskalev, the town's former mayor who quit in 2001 to join national politics. A charismatic and respected politician, Paskalev is among the most vocal critics of PM Stanishev inside the BSP. The Socialists nominated him for the mayoral job hoping that if elected, he will focus on local issues and stop scrutinizing the BSP leadership's moves.
21. (SBU) COMMENT: The election is hotly contested and many mayoral races will be decided in a second round run-off on November 4. The unique local alliances formed for the local vote, often characterized as the "election with many winners," will allow more than one party to claim "victory." Pundits focus on the BSP-GERB races, the outcome of which could reshape the domestic political scene and lay the ground for the next general election. Insiders from both sides believe a strong GERB showing over BSP would deal a serious but not fatal blow to Stanishev's team. Political experts see escalating strikes (as civil servants seek salary increases) and BSP infighting as more serious threats to the current government's stability. END COMMENT.
BEYRLE
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: RULING SOCIALISTS FACE POPULIST GERB CHALLENGE IN OCT 28 LOCAL VOTE
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1176, (B) SOFIA 678, (C) SOFIA 1007
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Sergei Stanishev's ruling socialists square off against GERB, the new populist party of Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov, in the election for mayors and municipal counselors on October 28. Running on populist, anti-government rhetoric, GERB is set to win mayoral races in Sofia and Plovdiv, the two biggest cities, and take a sizable share of municipal counselor seats. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is fighting to keep its traditionally strong representation at the local level and to avoid another loss to GERB following the May election for members of the European Parliament. An escalating teachers' strike and party infighting are putting the Socialists under further pressure. The vote is a survival test for the weakened traditional center-right parties as well. The overall stakes are even higher this year as the municipalities will soon manage hundreds of millions of euros in EU funds. The outcome of the vote will lay the ground for the next general election and could reshape the domestic political landscape. A big GERB victory may shake PM Stanishev's government but would not likely lead to an early general election. END SUMMARY
THE BSP-GERB FACE OFF
2. (SBU) Bulgarians will elect mayors and municipal counselors in 264 municipalities for a four-year (Ref. A). The Socialists, who dominate the ruling three-party coalition, face a strong challenge from the 10-month-old party of the charismatic but controversial Sofia mayor. The rising force on the domestic political scene, Borissov's GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) has already edged out the Socialists as the most popular party. October polls show nationwide support for GERB at 24 percent against 22 percent for the BSP. Borissov has made no secret of his ambition to use the local vote as a springboard to the PM's post. For GERB, the local vote is a learning exercise in party building and an opportunity to assert itself as Bulgaria's leading party after its narrow victory in the May elections for members of the European Parliament (Ref. B). The party has no representation in parliament having been established in 2006, well after 2005 national elections. It owes its popularity almost entirely to Borissov's charisma and its campaign has been largely a one-man show in which the Sofia mayor plays the lead. With a shortage of prominent candidates at the local level, the Sofia Mayor has led a national campaign more appropriate for parliamentary elections. He portrays his party as the only alternative to the three-party coalition, seeking to capture the lion's share of the protest vote. Using strong pro-U.S. and pro-EU rhetoric, GERB advertises itself as a center-right party. As part of its campaign GERB released the governing program of a future GERB-led government, a mix of sound economic ideas and populist promises that many believe is unrealistic but has strong appeal for disillusioned voters.
3. (SBU) The BPS's campaign has been focused largely on local issues and oriented towards the party base. As GERB gains strength, the BSP is struggling to win back its core electorate, mostly elderly communists. Many of them feel betrayed by the BSP-led government, which has pursued reformist economic policies. BSP officials also told us the party was struggling to sort out infighting over the mayoral nominations in 34 regional branches. An escalating teachers' strike has further shaken the Socialists. A no-confidence vote introduced by the center-right parties was defeated on October 23, but the high-profile debate over the government's handling of the strike could affect the BSP showing. An ongoing conflict between PM Stanishev and influential BSP Interior Minister Petkov over restructuring of the country's security services puts further pressure on the BSP (Ref. C). The party holds 12 of the country's 27 regional centers and has a number of popular mayors who stand a good chance of being re-elected. To win more mayoral seats, the BSP has entered a number of controversial local coalitions, which has stirred passions within the party but could allow it to achieve a better result.
ETHNIC TURKS, NATIONALISTS RETAIN BASE
4. (SBU) This year's vote also marks the local election debut of extreme nationalist party Ataka, the surprise of the 2005 general elections. The party, which is strongly anti-U.S., is likely to retain its highly energized base although some of its supporters may migrate to GERB. Ataka got a boost by the presence of French far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen at the launch of its campaign on September 30. The party has generally softened its xenophobic language, campaigning largely on anti-government rhetoric and exploiting sensitive social issues such as the plight of the elderly and of those who have suffered from the transition from communism. Even some mainstream voters agree with its vocal criticism of the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF),largely viewed as corrupt. A junior coalition partner in the government, the MRF will likely retain its base in regions with a predominantly ethic Turkish population. The vote in those areas will be watched closely because of the MRF's practice of bussing dual citizens from Turkey to vote for the MRF. The phenomenon, known as "electoral tourism", has stirred passions among ethic Bulgarians and prompted legal changes aimed at curbing this practice (Ref. A). Support for the MRF and Ataka is almost on par at around 7.0 percent, according to polls in October.
OLD CENTER-RIGHT STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE
5. (SBU) The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (DSB) -- look to bounce back after losing every election since 2001. Some of the seven incumbent center-right mayors stand a good chance of being reelected. The race in Sofia, where the UDF and DSB have named a joint mayoral candidate, could give an impetus for co-operation on a national level if he makes it to a run-off. A weak showing in the local election will likely accelerate these parties' descent (already under five percent) into irrelevance as GERB becomes the leading center-right power in Bulgaria.
6. (SBU) Ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS),a junior partner in the government, may fail to win a single mayoral seat in any major center. The former King long ago lost his halo and support for his group has plummeted to two percent amid infighting and a legal dispute about the legitimacy of party leadership.
7. (SBU) This year's vote is also contested by a record-high number of so-called "business parties" (26 out of a total of 88). These are regional parties registered especially for the vote and formally or informally linked to local businesses seeking direct representation in the local administrations. This interest comes from the municipalities' powers to manage hundreds of millions of euros in EU structural funds.
THE SOFIA RACE: TWO FORMER GENERALS AND A BANKER
8. (U) A record field of 44 candidates target the mayoral seat in Sofia, a city of some two million which has been a center-right stronghold since communism collapsed. The main contenders -- two former generals (from the Interior Ministry and National Intelligence Service) and a Swiss-born banker -- promise an intriguing race. According to all polls, incumbent Mayor Borissov will win re-election, if not directly on October 28 then certainly in a run-off on November 4. Below are profiles of the three front-runners.
9. (SBU) Gen. BOIKO BORISSOV, 48, who won Sofia's by-election two years ago, is one of Bulgaria's most popular officials, with approval ratings exceeding 60 percent. Before becoming Sofia mayor in November 2005, he served for four years as Interior Ministry Chief Secretary. He was appointed to the post by ex-PM Saxe-Coburg Gotha, whom Borissov previously served as a personal bodyguard. Borissov's Armani-clad tough-guy image, plain language, and close ties with local media contribute to the popularity and high profile of the former firefighter and national karate champion. As a result, Borissov's checkered past, involving at least superficial links to 1990's organized crime groups, has not marred his popularity. His tenure at city hall has been overshadowed by chronic problems with garbage collection and frequent rows with the Municipal Council but his mixed record has not affected his popularity. He portrays himself as an alternative to the political status quo. Campaigning under the motto "Open Government," he promises new moral and transparent governance. His opponents point to his past connections with strong-arm groups and unsavory business interests. Borissov, who has been extraordinarily helpful to the U.S. Mission both at the ministry and the mayoral office, does not miss an opportunity to boast about his "special ties" with the U.S. The incumbent mayor attracts votes from both the left and the center-right, from all age groups and social strata but his electorate is soft and less mobilized than that of his major opponents.
10. (SBU) Gen. BRIGO ASPARUHOV, 62, a Soviet-trained communist-era spy who headed the National Intelligence Service (NIS) in 1991-1997, is one of the most controversial figures within the BSP. His tenure as NIS chief is remembered mostly for its alleged involvement in bringing down the first center-right government of Philip Dimitrov in 1992. After he left the service, Asparuhov was investigated for destroying sensitive communist State Security files but the charges were later dropped. In 2003, the intent of then PM Saxe-Coburg to appoint Asparuhov as his security advisor triggered vocal opposition in Sofia as well as NATO capitals. A leading figure in the BSP's hardline faction known as the Generals' Movement, Asparuhov has been lately sidelined by the party leadership. His reappearance on the political stage has led to endless speculation. BSP insiders explain PM Stanishev's surprise support for Asparuhov's nomination as a tactical ploy to confront Borissov with an equally tough candidate - a general, well aware of the former bodyguard's questionable past and capable of exposing it. BSP officials told us another reason for the PM to bring Asparuhov back in the game could be Stanishev's desire to secure the Generals' support in his ongoing battle with Minister Petkov for control over the secret services. Asparuhov, who campaigns under the motto "Dialogue and Responsibility," could mobilize the BSP base and possibly make it to the second round. He does not appeal to the broader electorate and his chances of winning the race are minimal.
11. (SBU) MARTIN ZAIMOV, 45, a respected financier who served as Deputy Central Bank Governor in 1997-2003, is the joint nominee of the center-right UDF and DSB. Born in Switzerland to a Bulgarian mother and a British father, he has a degree in macroeconomics from the London School of Economics. Zaimov is credited for being a champion for the introduction of the currency board in 1997, which laid the groundwork for Bulgaria's current financial stability. His grandfather Vladimir Zaimov, shot by the authorities in 1942 after being found guilty of spying for the Soviet Union, was regarded by the communist regime as one of Bulgaria's greatest communist heroes. Interestingly enough, Zaimov's campaign manager says this family link might be a plus in the election, as it could help attract some leftist voters in case he makes it to a run-off. Zaimov, whose campaign motto is "I Love Sofia," has attacked Borissov for his ineffective use of funds and mismanagement of municipal property. More of a technocrat than a politician, Zaimov is less known to the broader public than his opponents. He enjoys the support of the staunch center-right but his inability to talk in plain language about Sofia's problems may make it difficult for him to reach the broader electorate.
"THUGS" VS "CRETINS"
12. (SBU) The campaign, which started September 26, took an interesting turn last week when a personal row between the two generals running for Sofia mayor turned into a mud-slinging contest, overshadowing any discussion on the issues of Sofia. Asparuhov fired the first shot, calling Borissov "a man with questionable past and unclear future" and vowing not to allow a man with ties to organized crime to govern Sofia or Bulgaria. "A thug remains a thug even with general's epaulettes," said another senior Socialist, adding that the incumbent mayor has "missed several stages in human development." Borissov fired back by calling them "cretins" and then dropped the bomb, announcing that several weeks ago Asparuhov had begged him to join his party. Zaimov has stayed away from the fray, choosing instead to campaign on issues such as wireless internet and green Sofia. His advisors told us that Zaimov may bring up the issue of Borissov's controversial past at the final stage of the campaign.
13. (SBU) Other candidates in Sofia include NMSS MP Antonia Parvanova, Ataka's Slavi Binev, who is a member of the European Parliament and owner of several striptease bars and is also known for his ties to organized crime, and colorful basketball coach Konstantin Papazov. Polls show that none of them have a realistic chance of winning.
Other Cities
14. (U) Local factors and personalities play an important role in local elections, in which political parties form different coalitions in different municipalities. Many mayoral candidates are backed by multi-party coalitions, or party candidates run as independents to gain broader support. Here are brief descriptions of the key mayoral races:
15. (SBU) PLOVDIV -- Bulgaria's second biggest city has been a traditional center-right stronghold since communism collapsed; a Socialist breakthrough in this election is unlikely. The clear front-runner is GERB candidate Slavcho Atanasov and the only question is whether he will win in the first or second round against Socialist MP Zahari Georgiev. Incumbent Mayor Ivan Chomakov, one of UDF's landmark mayors, is not running for re-election due to sagging popularity amid allegations of corruption.
16. (SBU) VARNA -- Incumbent Mayor Kiril Yordanov stands a good chance of winning a third term in office with support from the BSP. He is also allegedly backed by organized crime group TIM, which dominates Bulgaria's largest Black Sea city. The race marks the return to politics of Gen. Dimo Gyaurov, a former center-right MP who served as intelligence chief in 1997-2003. He is the joint candidate of UDF, DSB and NMSS.
17. (SBU) BURGAS -- The race in this southern Black Sea city is a rare case of partnership between GERB and Kostov's DSB. Their candidate, Dimitar Nikolov, poses a challenge to incumbent Mayor Yoan Kostadinov who is running for a fourth term in office with support from the BSP. Supporters of extreme nationalist Ataka, which enjoys solid support in Burgas, may decide the outcome of a possible run-off.
18. (SBU) KURDZHALI -- This southeastern town with its predominantly ethnic Turkish population is a traditional stronghold of the MRF whose Mayor Hasan Azis is the leading candidate. His main opponents are the candidate of a broad coalition centered around BSP and Ataka and the joint nominee of GERB and several center-right forces. A possible run-off will likely be decided by a vote along ethic lines.
19. (SBU) ROUSSE -- The Danube city's incumbent Mayor Bozhidar Yotov, BSP, is leading the polls. His main opponent is GERB's candidate Vanyu Tanov, the former chief of the service for fighting against organized crime making a political debut.
20. (SBU) BLAGOEVGRAD -- The race in this southwestern town is dominated by two leftist candidates: incumbent Mayor Lazar Prichkapov, who is the former regional communist party chief, and Socialist MP Kostadin Paskalev, the town's former mayor who quit in 2001 to join national politics. A charismatic and respected politician, Paskalev is among the most vocal critics of PM Stanishev inside the BSP. The Socialists nominated him for the mayoral job hoping that if elected, he will focus on local issues and stop scrutinizing the BSP leadership's moves.
21. (SBU) COMMENT: The election is hotly contested and many mayoral races will be decided in a second round run-off on November 4. The unique local alliances formed for the local vote, often characterized as the "election with many winners," will allow more than one party to claim "victory." Pundits focus on the BSP-GERB races, the outcome of which could reshape the domestic political scene and lay the ground for the next general election. Insiders from both sides believe a strong GERB showing over BSP would deal a serious but not fatal blow to Stanishev's team. Political experts see escalating strikes (as civil servants seek salary increases) and BSP infighting as more serious threats to the current government's stability. END COMMENT.
BEYRLE