BULGARIA: PRESIDENT PARVANOV IN STRONG POSITION AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000125 SIPDIS NSC FOR JUDITH ANSLEY AND ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA: PRESIDENT PARVANOV IN STRONG POSITION AS HE KICKS OFF SECOND TERM Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for reasons. 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Parvanov, Bulgaria's first post-communist president to win re-election, begins his second term in office as the dominant actor on the Bulgarian political stage, despite his relatively limited constitutional powers. His behind-the-scenes influence over the current government is vast. In his January 22 inauguration speech, Parvanov attempted to put a high gloss on his first term record--taking credit for successes such as NATO and EU membership while trying to insulate himself from unpopular decisions such as the Iraq war. Nevertheless, he vowed commitment and consistency. After reminding people he had initially opposed the war, his overarching message was unambiguous: Bulgaria must remain a good ally and honor its commitments in Iraq and elsewhere. Parvanov further emphasized that there would be no radical shifts in policy in his second term and that the presidency would continue to act as a force for stability and predictability. He condemned the twin evils of domestic corruption and populism, and called for greater ethnic tolerance. END SUMMARY BULGARIA HAS COME A LONG WAY UNDER MY MANDATE ¶2. (U) In his swearing-in speech, Parvanov trumpeted Bulgaria's foreign policy achievements during his first term and contrasted these successes with earlier predictions that the election of a former Communist as president would "doom Bulgaria to isolation." Among the accomplishments he cited were securing NATO and EU membership, having the best relations with the United States in over a 100 years, asserting Bulgaria's leadership role in the Balkans, and establishing "equal relations" with Russia, Ukraine and the CIS. Parvanov noted that Bulgaria is now perceived by its partners as a predictable ally, which has contributed to the fight against terrorism and is a source of stability in the region and Europe. The President challenged his critics to offer an alternative foreign policy, arguing that Euro-skepticism, anti-Americanism or the revival of tensions with neighbors or Russia were not realistic options. While many Bulgarians will continue to oppose the joint military facilities or Russia's participation in oil and gas pipelines, Parvanov asserted that these were in fact elements of a successful foreign policy. IRAQ: BULGARIA MUST KEEP ITS COMMITMENTS ¶3. (C) On Iraq, Parvanov tried to have his cake and eat it too, downplaying his role and reminding the public that he had originally opposed the war, but arguing that Bulgaria must not turn its back on its allies. Despite having suffered harsh criticism from the Right for his opposition to the war, Parvanov said all of his concerns "unfortunately were later justified." Nevertheless, Bulgaria could not back down. "Throughout its history," Parvanov said, "Bulgaria has never turned its back on its allies." Pulling out now would have serious consequences for the international democratic community, including Bulgaria. The President went on to say, that if it were up to him personally, not a single Bulgarian soldier would be deployed abroad. However, he was elected not to act on his emotions but in Bulgaria's national interest. ¶5. (U) On Libya, Parvanov conceded that Bulgaria's efforts to free the nurses had, unfortunately, been unsuccessful thus far. He balanced that by highlighting that no other cause in Bulgaria's centuries-long history had received as much solid international support. POPULISM AND CORRUPTION A DRAG ON BULGARIA'S PROGRESS ¶6. (SBU) On domestic issues, Parvanov said Bulgaria will not move forward until it succeeds in defeating both corruption and populism. Bulgaria needs leaders who can "build and create" rather than denounce and seek confrontation, the President stated. The notoriously populist--and equally thin-skinned--mayor of Sofia Boiko Borisov immediately demanded to know who Parvanov was referring to. Parvanov similarly called for greater tolerance and inter-ethnic dialogue, an obvious swipe at the far-right Ataka party's anti-Turkish and anti-Roma rhetoric. While Euro-skepticism is a concern, he warned that "Bulgaro-skepticism"--Bulgarians' lack of trust in themselves and their politicians--is potentially more dangerous. He criticized the government's habit of making major decisions within the narrow confine of the Coalition Council (among the three party leaders),claiming this lacks transparency and fuels public distrust. ¶7. (U) To refresh his inner circle, Parvanov has started to replace key advisors. Nikola Kolev, the former CHOD and Parvanov's campaign manager in the last election, will become the President's Chief of Staff. Emil Vulev, a career diplomat and former Ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg, will replace Zlatin Trapkov as one of two foreign policy advisors. The other foreign policy advisor is Pavlina Popova, a lawyer and founder of a public policy group focused on preparing Bulgaria for EU membership. Rumen Markov, the current Rector of the Police Academy and a good Embassy contact, will cover for internal security and intelligence issues. "THE GODFATHER OF THE GOVERNMENT" ¶8. (C) Parvanov is widely viewed as having engineered PM Stanishev's coalition government following the indecisive results of the 2005 elections, and the President continues to exercise strong behind-the-scene influence. The forty year-old Prime Minister is a Parvanov protege who is surrounded by older, more-experienced politicians who also owe their allegiance to the President. Parvanov successfully installed key members of his staff throughout the government, including the Foreign Minister, the Prosecutor General and the Prime Minister's Chief of Cabinet. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: President Parvanov's attempt to curry favor with the public by putting some distance between himself and the Iraq war is not new. He has consistently walked a tightrope on Iraq--offering moderate support while avoiding alienating BSP's core electorate, who strongly opposed the war. In the run-up to the June 2005 parliamentary elections, Parvanov urged parliament to bring Bulgaria's troops home from Iraq by year's end. But this proposal came in response to the Socialist party's more extreme proposal--abandoned in the aftermath of its victory--to withdraw the troops immediately. Despite his personal misgivings, the President in the end has proven a steadfast ally. This time is no exception. Parvanov's overall message is clear: Bulgaria needs to stay engaged and faithful to its commitments and friends. END COMMENT BEYRLE