MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR STAFFDEL SLOAT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000932

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR STAFFDEL SLOAT


AN OPPORTUNE VISIT


1. (SBU) Welcome to Skopje! You will arrive shortly after key USG,
NATO, and EU officials have called on the political parties, the
government, and members of parliament to put aside their partisan
differences, engage in constructive dialogue, and rollup their
sleeves. We have reiterated a consistent message: in order for
Macedonia to have a chance of receiving a NATO invitation in April,
the government and opposition need to work together, and the
parliament needs to pass some key pieces of legislation during the
next few weeks. You can help reinforce the message that voters,
whether in Macedonia or the U.S., expect their representatives to
put aside partisan differences when the national interest (in this
case potential NATO membership) is at stake.

FIRST SOME GOOD NEWS...


2. (SBU) We and the Europeans are pressing the Macedonian government
(GOM) and opposition on critical NATO and EU membership-related
issues. But first, the good news:

-- The GOM submitted for parliamentary approval a decision calling
for doubling Macedonia's contributions in Iraq -- by an additional
platoon -- and MOD Elenovski says Macedonia also is considering a
future increase in its troop contributions in Afghanistan.
Macedonia also successfully hosted the NATO EAPC Security Summit in
June, demonstrating it could tackle the logistics and security
challenge of hosting 49 delegations for the event, including the
NATO Secretary General.
`
--Macedonia has made good anti-trafficking-in-persons (TIP) progress
this year, moving from a Tier II Watchlist candidate to a solid Tier
II performer. The government also has shown progress on the
anti-corruption front, jumping from 105th place on Transparency
International's corruption perception index in 2006 to 84th place
this year. The government has actively pursued corruption
investigations and prosecutions, although some cases clearly have
been motivated by partisan considerations.

--Implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA),which ended
a civil conflict between the government and ethnic Albanian
insurgents, has progressed. Under the FWA, this year municipal
governments continued to gain additional powers as part of the
"decentralization" process of moving decisions closer to the
citizens. The GOM also continued the hiring of ethnic Albanian and
other minorities to implement equitable representation. But more
remains to be done. The government needs to continue to work with
the municipalities to iron out the remaining financial and
procedural disputes. the government also needs to clear up the
currently murky process for hiring ethnic minorities with
transparent, fair, and non-partisan hiring guidelines.

--Macedonia is showing positive economic performance, with the
country recently ranked by the World Bank as one of the top 10 "most
improved" countries in carrying out business environment reforms.
Prime Minister Gruevski has raised public sector wages and cut VAT
rates on some key consumer items, which has helped keep his poll
numbers strong. Starting in 2008, personal and corporate profit tax
rates will fall from 12 percent to 10 percent (flat tax),one of the
lowest tax rates in Europe.

--Rounding out its achievements, the GOM passed this year a liberal
religious freedom law which generally meets ODIHR standards for
protecting religious freedom. Implementation, slated to begin in
mid-2008, will be the key test.

NEED TO SPRINT, NOT LIMP, TO THE NATO FINISH LINE


3. (SBU) Despite positive accomplishments, movement on key political
criteria has practically ground to a halt. The current relationship
between the government coalition and opposition parties is bitter
and accusatory. In September, physical scuffles broke out in
parliament, a first for Macedonia. Earlier in the year the largest
ethnic Albanian opposition party, DUI, had boycotted parliament due
to its disputes with the GOM. In May, PM Gruevski's party,
VMRO-DPMNE, reached an agreement with DUI leaders on a few of the
most contentious inter-ethnic issues, and DUI returned to
parliament. Unfortunately, implementation of this "May 29
agreement" has faltered, as the parties have not shown willingness
to compromise.


4. (SBU) Parliament needs to show it can work constructively over
the next few weeks, despite the intense political differences. It
needs to implement internal parliamentary reforms, such as
reconstituting the inter-ethnic relations committee (part of the May
29 agreement),as well as pass key legislation, such as a new law on
the public prosecutor.


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5. (SBU) Progress in judicial system reform, another key NATO
criterion, has also been slow. The government has made some
advances, such as filling 14 of the 15 seats of the State Judicial
Council, which oversees the judiciary. Unfortunately, these
achievements were often made by using short-term tactical maneuvers
that avoided engaging with DUI and other opposition parties.

COURSE CORRECTION ALSO NEEDED ON THE NAME ISSUE


6. (SBU) The GOM has, by and large, tried to act with restraint on
the name issue, despite Greek threats to veto Macedonia's NATO
candidacy if Skopje does not agree to a compromise solution before
the NATO Summit in April. However, there have been GOM missteps
along the way, such as renaming the Skopje airport after Alexander
the Great. During negotiations on the name in New York November 1,
UN Special Envoy Nimetz proposed guidelines and principles for
moving toward a solution. Even though we are not asking Macedonia
to change its constitutional name (Republic of Macedonia),we are
urging both sides to refrain from provocations and to "study the
Nimetz paper with an open mind and with a view toward finally
resolving differences and reaching a solution to the issue."

POLICE ACTION TARGETS CRIMINAL GROUP IN NORTHWEST


7. (SBU) On November 7, the Ministry of Interior (MOI)carried out a
major police operation around Brodec, near the Kosovo border, aimed
at a group of 30-40 criminals, including several escapees from a
Kosovo prison. The group was suspected of, inter alia, arms
smuggling and planning attacks on local police stations. The MOI
reported that six members
of the group were killed in exchanges of gunfire with police, but
there were no civilian casualties officially reported. Police also
discovered a large cache of ammunition, explosives, and weapons at
the site of the incident. The success of the operation, however,
was undermined by the MOI's slow follow-up in responding to
allegations that those arrested had been mistreated in police
custody, and by a court's denial of access by the Red Cross.

TIME TO SEE CONCRETE ACHIEVEMENTS


8. (SBU) When you meet with members of parliament, NGO leaders, and
Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials they will be well aware that
the U.S. and our NATO partners are looking for an end to partisan
bickering and finger pointing. However, it would be worth
reiterating that 90 percent of Macedonians support NATO membership,
so it is in the politicians' own domestic political self-interest to
compromise and produce results.

MILOVANOVIC