MACEDONIA: UNANIMOUS "NO" TO NIMETZ PROPOSAL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000880 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE (MCCLUNG) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MK GR SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: UNANIMOUS "NO" TO NIMETZ PROPOSAL ON THE NAME REF: A. SKOPJE 853 (NATO AND NAME) ¶B. SKOPJE 841 (DICARLO) Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY. ¶1. (C) The GOM, with opposition support, has unanimously rejected the point in the November 1 Nimetz proposal on the name that would allow Macedonia to keep its constitutional name but would require it to agree to a modified name for international usage. There is consensus as well between the President and Prime Minister on the issue, with an agreement to launch a diplomatic offensive in NATO and EU capitals to explain the Macedonian position. The GOM has also reiterated its view that a Greek veto of Macedonia's NATO bid over the name would be a violation of the 1995 Interim Accord that would annul that agreement. PM Gruevski's hasty public rejection of the proposal was poorly coordinated and gives the impression of Macedonian inflexibility in the UN talks, a point we have underscored with the Prime Minister. We will press for a low-key approach to the ensuing diplomatic offensive, and for the GOM's reaffirmation of the positive points in the Nimetz proposal. End summary. INITIALLY RESERVED APPROACH... ¶2. (U) Responding to UN Special Envoy Nimetz's November 1 proposal on the name issue (Macedonia would not have to change its constitutional name, but would agree to a differentiated name for international usage),FM Milososki took an initially cautious and non-committal approach. Referring to the "guidelines and principles included in the text" as "generally positive and satisfactory," he built on an earlier statement by Ambassador Dimitrov, Macedonia's name negotiator, who told a BBC reporter November 1 that the proposal contained elements of an eventual solution, some which "are compatible with our position, and some are not." ...THEN THE FLOODGATES OPEN, "NOs" POUR FORTH ¶3. (C) PM Gruevski, however, in a statement for the official news agency on November 2, categorically rejected the second point of the proposal. Although he said the government would "keep analyzing" the proposal, and that it contained some "good" provisions, he noted that the GOM could not accept the point requiring Macedonia to "accept a name different from its constitutional one for international use." Gruevski's hasty rejection both unraveled FM Milososki's more cautious approach, and violated the confidentiality provisions of the Nimetz proposal. (NOTE: The Ambassador met with Gruevski November 5 to raise, inter alia, our concern over his hasty rejection of the Nimetz proposal and our dismay over his violation of the confidentiality clause. Gruevski appeared genuinely surprised to learn that there were confidentiality provisions, and pointed to the leaks that had followed Nimetz's October 2005 proposal. He added that he had consulted with Ambassador Dimitrov before making his statement. We believe that to some degree poor internal communication contributed to Gruevski's hasty public misstep. END NOTE.) ¶4. (SBU) Gruevski's flat "no" was followed by supportive public statements by ethnic Albanian coalition partners DPA and PDP saying that the country's "ultimate priority" is EU and NATO membership, but that "we are not ready for compromises which will influence the foundations of the state." DPA President Thaci told the press that "Greece has neither the historical nor the political right to demand a change" of Macedonia's name, while PDP President Vejseli vowed that the country would "not change our constitutional name, even if that means we do not enter NATO." Opposition SDSM also pledged its support for the government on the name issue. ¶5. (SBU) Various local constitutional and legal experts also chimed in, urging the government to reject the Nimetz proposal. Even DUI President Ahmeti, who did not issue a public statement on the issue, during a November 1 meeting with the Ambassador said that he had told Greek FM Bakoyannis, during a recent conversation, that he would SKOPJE 00000880 002 OF 002 defend Macedonia's constitutional name. PRESIDENT CONFIRMS UNANIMOUS "NO" -- GREEK VETO WOULD ANNUL 1995 INTERIM ACCORD ¶6. (SBU) PM Gruevski met with President Crvenkovski November 5 to discuss the Nimetz proposal, and -- despite their political differences -- they reportedly reached a unanimous conclusion rejecting the contentious point requiring a differentiated name for international usage. Crvenkovski's cabinet later issued a statement to the press, saying that if Greece vetoed Macedonia's NATO candidacy over the name, the "state leadership" in Skopje would consider the 1995 Interim Accord as having been radically violated and therefore annulled. Local press reported that Macedonia would launch a diplomatic offensive to explain its position to EU and NATO members, and to ask whether they had "blessed" the Nimetz proposal. COMMENT ¶7. (C) We believe PM Gruevski, who does not appear to have a firm grasp of the detailed developments over the years in the name discussions, thought he was being constructive when he made his initial public statement on the name. Having rejected only one of the several points contained in the proposal, he likely thought that would be seen as a reasonable compromise position. Furthermore, he probably believed that Dimitrov's green light for a Gruevski statement rejecting any trade-off between the constitutional name and NATO membership also gave him the go-ahead to reject the second point of the proposal. That point is artfully crafted NOT to require Macedonia to modify its constitutional name but to simply agree to a differentiated name for international use, a point apparently lost on Gruevski. Now that the train has left the station, however, we will urge the GOM to take a lower-key approach to the "lobbying offensive" in NATO and EU capitals, and to reaffirm the positive elements in the Nimetz proposal. MILOVANOVIC