MACEDONIA: IMPLEMENTATION OF MAY 29 AGREEMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000875

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: IMPLEMENTATION OF MAY 29 AGREEMENT
GRINDING TO A HALT?

REF: A. SKOPJE 758 AND PREVIOUS


B. SKOPJE 815

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) Over the last four months, governing VMRO and
opposition DUI have been willing, but unyielding,
participants in the implementation of the US-EU-brokered
five-point May 29 agreement (ref A). There is still hope for
the successful near-term re-composition of the committee on
inter-ethnic relations and the codification of the list of 46
laws that would require qualified (Badinter) majority.
However, the other two main points of the agreement --the
draft language law and the social benefits package for
victims of the 2001 conflict-- are stuck in the quagmire of
political gamesmanship. We will continue to monitor the work
of the language law working group and push both sides to
concentrate on producing a less than perfect language law
draft for Parliament to work from, rather than trying to
convince each other that their interpretation of the
Constitution and the Framework Agreement is "the correct"
one. End summary.

MAY 29 AGREEMENT - SOME HOPE FOR TWO ITEMS...


2. (SBU) Following four months of discussions with no
breakthroughs, the first two items of the US-EU-brokered
five-point May 29 agreement between governing VMRO and ethnic
Albanian opposition DUI (ref A) --codifying a list of 46 laws
that would require qualified (Badinter) majority, and
recomposing the committee on inter-ethnic relations-- are
still blocked by the thousands of amendments proposed by
opposition SDSM. The GOM has suggested that, in order to
overcome the opposition's resistance, it might include the
list of 46 laws as an addendum to the new draft law on the
committee on inter-ethnic relations. If this is done and if
the law passes, the GOM has a chance to close two items from
the May 29 agreement in the near future.

DEAD END FOR THE TWO WORKING GROUPS...?


3. (SBU) Parallel to those discussions, two separate
VMRO-DUI working groups --on the draft law on languages and
on a package of social benefits for victims of the 2001
conflict-- have met half a dozen times as part of the May 29
agreement implementation. Emboffs have observed the language
law working group proceedings, while our EUSR colleagues have
followed working group discussions on the victims of conflict
issue. Despite the willingness of both sides to meet with
each other, even as tensions related to a Parliamentary brawl
reached their peak (ref B),there has been no forward
movement on either the language law or the victims of
conflict issue.

VICTIMS OF CONFLICT WORKING GROUP - ASKING FOR MORE, GETTING
NOTHING...


4. (SBU) The victims of the 2001 conflict working group was
recently on the verge of achieving success when the GOM
presented a package of social benefits, including employment
opportunities, for the victims of conflict. Initially
receptive to the idea, in the wake of the parliamentary
incidents DUI quickly reversed its position and said that it
could only accept a draft law on the issue or an addendum to
the current law on the 2001 "defenders" (Macedonian military
veterans of the 2001 conflict.) This move, which is contrary
to the May 29 agreement, and unacceptable to VMRO, derailed
the negotiations. The working group last met on October 25,
without completing its mandate. EUSR is not planning to
observe any future meetings of the working group, and no
further meetings of that group have been scheduled.

LANGUAGE LAW WORKING GROUP - WHO WILL BLINK FIRST...?


5. (SBU) Headed by a Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister
of Interior, the VMRO team working on the language law showed
from the beginning that the GOM was willing to meet with DUI,
yet would take a strict constructivist legalistic approach
and steafastly refuse to make any forward-leaning or
constructive suggestions for moving the process forward.
Even though both sides proposed draft laws, the GOM side
summarily labeled the DUI draft "unconstitutional" and going
beyond Framework Agreement requirements. Having met in seven

SKOPJE 00000875 002 OF 002


marathon-length night sessions, the two sides are still
debating the essence of their philosophical positions, which
are fundamentally irreconcilable.


6. (SBU) In conversations with Emboffs, the PM's Chief of
Staff has indicated that the GOM understands that its "war of
attrition" strategy eventually might lead DUI to walk out of
the process. DUI's VP Xhaferi has also indicated that DUI is
willing to wait for the GOM to blink first and "show its real
intentions to the public." As a result, DUI has given an
informal deadline of December 20 for the working group to
submit an interim progress report. VMRO's side has dismissed
the notion of setting deadlines for debates that are related
to decisions of such historical moment. Emboffs will
continue to monitor the proceedings of the working group.
The next session is scheduled for November 8.

COMMENT


7. (SBU) The GOM understands that implementation of the May
29 agreement is one of the main criteria the international
community uses to monitor and evaluate its domestic political
progress. That is why the PM has delegated the work to some
of his most trusted deputies. However, our conversations
with the GOM point to a strategy of "talk, wait and see,"
rather than to any real desire for political dialogue that
leads to compromise and results. On the other hand, DUI's
intransigence at key points during the negotiations has
raised questions regarding DUI's desire to see the May 29
agreement completed. We will redouble our efforts to
convince both sides of the need to reach compromises, and not
allow the process to be derailed beyond salvaging.
MILOVANOVIC