MACEDONIAN: ELECTORAL CODE CHANGES WOULD ALLOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000730

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIAN: ELECTORAL CODE CHANGES WOULD ALLOW
GUARANTEED MINORITY AND DIASPORA SEATS

REF: SKOPJE 629

Classified By: Poloff Katrina Mosser for reasons 1.4(b) & (d)

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) Following more than six months of talks between
Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and a group of MPs from the
smaller ethnic minority communities (Turks, Serbs, Bosniacs,
Roma, Vlachs),the government announced on August 27 that it
would seek to amend the electoral code to guarantee ten new
parliamentary seats for smaller ethnic communities in
Macedonia, in exchange for their support for the government's
parliamentary agenda. With those minority MP votes, the
governing coalition would have enough votes to pass
legislation that requires a qualified ("Badinter") majority.
If the proposed amendments pass, ethnic Albanian opposition
party DUI will lose its control of Badinter majority votes in
the parliament, which it has used in the past to block
legislation it did not support. Although Gruevski will be
able to secure Badinter majorities for priority legislation
if his proposal passes, he already has alienated ethnic
Albanian parties, possibly including junior coalition partner
DPA, who see the move as an anti-Albanian end run to weaken
the voting power of their MPs in the legislature. End
summary.

GRUEVSKI STRIKES A DEAL WITH ETHNIC MINORITY MPS


2. (SBU) On August 27 Prime Minister Gruevski unveiled his
proposal to amend the electoral code in order to add ten new
guaranteed parliamentary seats for smaller ethnic minority
communities (Turks, Serbs, Bosniacs, Roma, Vlachs). The
proposal includes adding three new seats for diaspora
communities, creating a government agency for minority
rights, and enacting a law on the protection of minorities.
Gruevski's proposal came after more than six months of
negotiations between the Prime Minister and a group of five
MPs from the smaller ethnic minority communities.


3. (C) The agreement, which PM Gruevski previewed with the
Ambassador in a July 31 meeting (reftel),guarantees four
seats to the ethnic Turkish community; two seats to the
ethnic Roma community; two seats to the ethnic Serb
community; one seat to the ethnic Bosniac community; and one
seat to the ethnic Vlach community. The seats are allocated
based roughly on each minority community's representation in
Macedonia's population. In addition to the guaranteed ethnic
minority seats, three seats will be elected from the
Macedonian diaspora (one each for diaspora populations in
North America, Europe, and Australia).


4. (SBU) As part of his legislative package, Gruevski also
has agreed to create a government agency for minority rights,
which will be directly linked to the existing Sector for
Implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement. In
addition, the government will propose a new law for the
protection of minority rights, which will address key areas
of concern to minority communities - cultural preservation,
education, and language use.


5. (SBU) In exchange for the 13 new guaranteed seats and the
rest of the package, the five ethnic minority MPs have agreed
to support the governing coalition in parliamentary votes
that require qualified ("Badinter") majorities. As a result,
the governing coalition will now have 20 out of 35 ethnic
minority votes in parliament. That will allow the government
to pass legislation requiring a Badinter majority, without
having to rely on support from opposition MPs. (NOTE: The
Badinter majority requires that certain draft legislation -
pertaining mainly to culture, use of language, local
government, and education - receive a majority of ethnic
minority MPs' votes in order to be enacted. END NOTE.)

A GREEN LIGHT FOR CONTROVERSIAL LEGISLATION?


6. (C) The addition of five Badinter votes to the governing
coalition bloc likely will allow Gruevski's government to
pass a number of controversial pieces of legislation that
have been deadlocked in parliament, and to appoint the
remaining five members of the State Judicial Council (SJC),
which requires a parliamentary vote with a Badinter majority.

SKOPJE 00000730 002 OF 002


The SJC, an independent body charged with guaranteeing the
independence and autonomy of the judiciary, has not been
completely constituted since last year and therefore cannot
fully discharge its mandate. Ten of the fifteen members that
do not require parliamentary approval have been appointed;
the remaining five members are subject to parliamentary
approval and have become pawns in a political tug-of-war
between the government and opposition.


7. (C) Gruevski's deal with the minority parties could end
the parliamentary gridlock on the SJC appointments, although
the electoral code amendments already face fierce resistance
from DUI, which has submitted over 4,000 amendments to the
proposal in a classic filibustering move. (NOTE: Some local
analysts believe the government will be forced to withdraw
the proposed amendments to the electoral code, since they
believe it would take until October just to debate the DUI
amendments. END NOTE.) Opposition SDSM also opposes the
deal, and has threatened to boycott the parliamentary session
when the proposal comes up for debate. SDSM leaders tell us
they object to the government introducing the changes without
consulting all political parties, and oppose using the
electoral code as a bargaining chip for gaining Badinter
votes. In addition to DUI and SDSM opposition, the proposal
faces public criticism from other minority groups, including
representatives of the Egyptian, Croatian, and Montenegrin
communities, who say they should be included in any deal to
give guaranteed seats to minorities.

HOW WOULD THE DEAL BE IMPLEMENTED?


8. (SBU) The Macedonian Constitution allows for the
parliament to have between 120 and 140 seats; therefore,
there is no requirement to amend the Constitution in order to
add the 13 new seats. If the proposed amendments to the
electoral code pass, the changes would be implemented during
the next parliamentary elections. PM Gruevski can
immediately establish the new government agency for minority
rights, as it does not require parliamentary approval. The
proposal for a new law on the protection of minorities will
have to be submitted and voted on in parliament.

COMMENT


9. (C) DUI has held a strategic advantage in the parliament
because it, along with two independent MPs, has been able to
effectively block legislation requiring the Badinter majority
for nearly a year. The shift in power brought about by
Gruevski's latest proposal, along with the government's
inaction regarding implementation of the May 29 Agreement
with DUI (reftel),could further marginalize the party.
DUI's frustration with the governing coalition will be
further exacerbated if PM Gruevski uses the newly acquired
minority votes to bypass DUI and to enact controversial
legislation that requires a Badinter majority vote.


10. (C) Although not as vocal in opposing the proposed
amendments as DUI, DPA has shown little overt enthusiasm for
expanding the voting power of the other minority parties.
The addition of ten guaranteed minority seats could dilute
the power of the ethnic Albanian community as a whole, since
there are no guaranteed seats for the ethnic Albanian
community. DPA signaled its lack of enthusiasm, which could
further strain intra-coalition relations, by failing to send
a representative to the September 4 Parliamentary Committee
on Political Systems discussions of the draft electoral code
changes. End comment.
NAVRATIL