MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT SUCCESSFULLY WOOS SMALL

UNCLAS SKOPJE 000394 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT SUCCESSFULLY WOOS SMALL ETHNIC ALBANIAN OPPOSITION PARTY -- SHORT-TERM GAIN ¶1. (U) In a long-anticipated about-face, the small ethnic Albanian opposition Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP) joined the government on May 18. Although PDP holds three MP seats, only MP Abdulhadi Vejseli, the party president, left the opposition coalition with ethnic Albanian majority opposition party DUI to join the governing coalition. The two remaining PDP MPs have vowed to stay with DUI, although PDP's leadership has publicly confirmed the break with that party. ¶2. (SBU) Vejseli confirmed to us on May 19 that he had joined the government, and that PDP had been offered the Ministry of Local Self-Government portfolio (currently held by a member of the governing VMRO-DPMNE),and a state secretary slot in the Ministry of Interior. The local press SIPDIS reports PDP also will receive several directorships of state enterprises, lucrative positions that often are more highly valued than top government portfolios. ¶3. (SBU) In an earlier conversation with P/E Chief May 10, Menduh Thaci, Vice President of the ethnic Albanian junior governing coalition party DPA, said he had been working for months to get PDP to make the switch. He argued that Vejseli's move would strengthen DPA's position in the governing coalition, rather than simply signaling a maverick move on PDP's part, and that he would propose Safet Kadriu, a lawyer from Tetovo, as the candidate for the Local Self-Government Ministry. Although Kadriu nominally is a PDP member, according to Thaci, he is closely associated with DPA and would, in reality, serve as a DPA minister. According to local press, Kadriu's candidacy for the Ministry of Local Self-Government position will be made public on May 22. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Vejseli's defection marks the continued erosion of DUI's position as an opposition force, giving the government a 73-seat majority in the 120-seat Parliament, and leaving DUI with only 15 of the original 17 MP seats it enjoyed in combination with its PDP coalition partner (a DUI MP defected late last year). It also reflects the government's tactic of coaxing ethnic Albanian and other minority MPs to its side in order to ensure it will prevail when voting on legislation that requires a Badinter majority (double majority). Although that strategy may succeed in the short-term, VMRO's other coalition partner, NSDP (with seven MPs),is disgruntled over the fact that Vejseli managed to extract a ministry in exchange for a single MP seat. Informal coalition partner VMRO-NP (with six MPs) also has grumbled about the tradeoff. While neither party is likely to leave the governing coalition in protest, both are likely to press for additional concessions from Prime Minister Gruevski to compensate for the PDP compromise. And at the end of the day, Gruevski still will have to deal with the rump DUI/PDP coalition that represents the majority of the eAlbanian electorate in Macedonia. WOHLERS