MFA ON SUSPENDING BURMA AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001931 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SENV BM SN SUBJECT: MFA ON SUSPENDING BURMA AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS REF: A. SINGAPORE 1905 ¶B. SINGAPORE 1851 ¶C. SINGAPORE 1811 ¶D. JAKARTA 2660 Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold. Reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: It would be surprising if ASEAN leaders decided to suspend Burma, MFA Second Permanent Secretary Bilahari Kausikan told EAP DAS Christensen and the Ambassador on October 15, given that "some of their hands are not too clean." Kausikan characterized China's "charm offensive" in Southeast Asia as "over stated," but said China had been skillful in portraying itself as the country of the future. Regarding Indonesia, opposition in the parliament there had led to the indefinite shelving of the Defense Cooperation Agreement and Extradition Treaty the two countries signed in April (Ref C and D); this was "no skin off our nose," Kausikan commented. MFA Permanent Secretary Peter Ho told DAS Christensen and the Ambassador on October 16 that climate change, energy security, and environmental protection will be major themes at the ASEAN Summit and East Asia Summit (EAS) that Singapore will host in November. End Summary. ¶2. (U) EAP Deputy Assistant Secretary Thomas Christensen and the Ambassador met with MFA Second Permanent Secretary Bilahari Kausikan on October 15 and MFA Permanent Secretary Peter Ho on October 16. (Note: DAS Christensen's discussion on Burma with Peter Ho is reported in Ref A. End Note.) Hard to Suspend Burma -------------- ¶3. (C) Kausikan said he would be very surprised if the ASEAN leaders would agree to suspend Burma, as "some of their hands are not too clean." It would be difficult for ASEAN even to duplicate its tough September 27 ASEAN Chair statement on the situation in Burma, Kausikan indicated. That statement came at a unique moment and China had been working hard on its "ASEAN friends" since then to make sure they didn't make any further moves that would "expose" China and leave it without political cover for its support for the regime. He asserted that the GOS had "not asked" Singapore think tank leader Barry Desker to draft his op-ed piece calling for ASEAN to suspend Burma (Ref B). China's "Charm Offensive" -------------- ¶4. (C) China's "charm offensive" in Southeast Asia is "over stated," Kausikan told DAS Christensen. China's ability to 
develop soft power was limited by the inaccessibility of Chinese culture. In addition, PRC officials saw Singaporeans as "descendants of peasants who ran away" while they are the ruling "mandarins," Kausikan added. There was a strong stick behind China's charm, as Singapore saw after it went against Beijing's wishes and supported Japan for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. China has been quite skillful, however, in creating the impression among regional actors that China is the country of the future, Japan is the past, and the United States is simply not present. When pressed by DAS Christensen on the last point, Kausikan admitted that by any hard measure (trade, foreign direct investment),the United States was clearly present and one of the most important partners for every country in the region. However, the strong impression in the region is that the United States was distracted by events in the Middle East and would be for some time. Agreements with Indonesia Shelved Indefinitely -------------- - ¶5. (C) After DAS Christensen noted our improved bilateral ties with Indonesia and the Philippines, Kausikan said the Indonesian government wanted a closer relationship with the United States, but faced domestic hurdles. President Yudhoyono had to do a better job of making the case to the public. Reflecting on Singapore's sometimes contentious relations with its neighbor, Kausikan said a strong negative reaction by the Indonesian parliament had caused the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) and the Extradition Treaty the two countries had signed in April to be shelved indefinitely; this was "no skin off our nose," Kausikan commented (Ref C and D). The agreements had unraveled because President Yudhoyono had failed to prepare the ground, he asserted. SINGAPORE 00001931 002 OF 002 Climate Change on the Agenda -------------- ¶6. (C) Peter Ho told DAS Christensen and the Ambassador that climate change has become a much more important issue in the last year. Climate change, energy security, and environmental protection will be major themes at the ASEAN and East Asia Summits (EAS) that Singapore will host in November. One advantage of the EAS is that it will be an opportunity to engage both China and India on climate change. In Southeast Asia, deforestation is an important issue, especially due to the haze created by Indonesia's slash and burn agriculture. Indonesia was now one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases and it should be held "accountable," according to Ho. DAS Christensen noted that developing strategies to use technology to protect the environment was a major part of the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue. However, U.S. firms with this technology were reluctant to go into China due to the lack of IPR protection. ¶7. (U) EAP DAS Christensen has cleared this message. Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm HERBOLD