CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONS: VIEWS FROM SHANGHAI ACADEMICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000790 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2032 TAGS: PREL ETRD ENRG PARM MCAP CH RS SUBJECT: CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONS: VIEWS FROM SHANGHAI ACADEMICS CLASSIFIED BY: Christopher Beede, Political/Economic Section Chief , U.S. Consulate , Shanghai . REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a series of meetings in early December on China-Russia relations, Shanghai's leading academic experts on Russia characterized the bilateral relationship as "very good." They noted the excellent personal relationship between the two countries' leaders, which, they claim, ensures political relations will remain strong for at least the next several years. They also described the military relationship as very solid, some even calling it the "best aspect" of the current bilateral relationship. Although there are tensions in trade relations and a growing economic rivalry in Central Asia, the academics believe these problems will not prevent the strategic partnership from continuing on its positive trajectory in the near future. End Summary. Hu and Putin: Mutual Trust, Better Relations -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloff met with Shanghai's leading academic experts on Russia in early December to discuss the current state and future outlook for China's relationship with Russia. The academics all characterized the bilateral political relationship as "very good," especially after all outstanding border issues were resolved in 2004. They agreed that the personal relationship between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin has played a significant role in improving political relations. Lu Gang, Director of the Department of Russia-Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS),said there is "mutual trust" between the two leaders, who now meet in person four to five times a year at various venues, such as APEC and Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) meetings. Pan Guang, Director of the Institute of European and Asia Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS),asserted that the current level of "friendship" between the two countries' leaders is unprecedented, and that both leaders feel comfortable talking "frankly and directly" to each other. ¶3. (C) When asked if the political relationship would change once the leadership changes, the academics all concurred that the relationship is not solely personality-based, and there are now various institutionalized mechanisms for high-level political exchange. However, they see the leaders' relationship continuing to play a key role in the years to come. They believe that Putin will still exert strong influence in Russian politics even after he steps down in 2008, and combined with the fact that Hu will remain in power in China for the next five years, this ensures that bilateral relations will continue on its positive trajectory for the foreseeable future. Military Relations "Best Ever" -------------- ¶4. (C) Zhao Huasheng, Director of the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies, Fudan University, called the military component one of the "best aspects" of the bilateral relationship. The other academics had a similar view, citing increasing cooperation in anti-terrorism maneuvers, joint military exercises, and staff exchanges as signs of a burgeoning military relationship. Although Pan also stated that the military relationship is the "best" it has ever been, he noted concerns, though not widespread, among some Russians of a rising Chinese threat, leading Russia to sell military equipment to India as a hedge. The academics all discounted any notion of Chinese dependence on Russian arms, asserting that Russia is not China's only source for military equipment. (Note: Pan and Zhao mentioned Israel as another major source. End note.) Lu went so far as to argue that China's indigenous military technology is now more advanced than Russia's, though he declined to elaborate on this point. Trade: China Not Playing Fair? -------------- SHANGHAI 00000790 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) The academics agreed that trade is the biggest sticking point in the bilateral relationship. They cited statistics showing bilateral trade increased from USD30 billion in 2006 to USD40 billion this year with similar increases expected over the next few years. However, they also noted that 2007 will be the first year in which Russia records a trade deficit with China. They pointed to this as a source of Russian "dissatisfaction" with the direction in which bilateral trade is headed. According to the academics, China sells mostly manufactured goods, such as garments, shoes, and consumer electronics, to Russia while Russia sells mainly natural resources, such as oil and wood, to China. Lu thinks Russia perceives it as "unfair" that China only buys Russia's natural resources and not its industrial products. Zhao concurred, saying Russia wants China to buy its commercial airplanes, cars, hydropower generators, consumer electronics, and nuclear equipment, but that industrial products only account for less than one percent of China's imports from Russia. Both Zhao and Pan think this trade structure will be difficult to change, since Russian consumer products are not highly regarded in China and cannot compete with imports from Japan and other countries. The academics believe this negative trend in trade relations may continue for some time but will not necessarily sour the overall relationship. SCO and Central Asia: Rivalry Brewing? -------------- ¶6. (C) Zhao explained that the purpose of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) is "not fixed" and has broadened its focus from border and security issues to economic cooperation, environmental protection, drug trafficking, illegal migration, natural disasters, sports, and education exchanges. However, according to Zhao, each member state has its own priority, with some emphasizing security aspects and others, like China, focusing more on economic cooperation. Pan believes Russia views the SCO as a military/security cooperative organization that can serve as a bulwark against further NATO expansion, but other SCO members, including China, are not interested in this vision. Both Zhao and Lu think there may be some rivalry between Russia and China in the SCO and Central Asia, but Lu likens this rivalry to relations between the United States and France or between France and Germany, saying it is friendly and the "fundamental goals are the same." Zhao agreed, stating that Russia recognizes that the world has changed and Russia needs to cooperate with China. ¶7. (C) However, Pan contends that the rivalry between China and Russia in Central Asia is real and of growing concern to Russia, which views Central Asia as its "traditional backyard." According to Pan, the biggest issue in Russia-China relations in Central Asia is the lack of economic cooperation, specifically regarding energy. Pan stated that China has been trying to push for more energy cooperation with Central Asian states in recent years, especially after the collapse of the Siberian-China pipeline project in 2003/2004. Pan thinks Russia only became seriously engaged in energy negotiations with China after China began signing energy deals with several Central Asian states. For example, he noted how Russian President Putin suggested creating an "energy club" in the SCO after Chinese President Hu signed deals with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in 2007 to extend a gas pipeline via Kazakhstan to China. Pan believes Russia is now taking a more active role in energy discussions in Central Asia, agreeing recently to send oil through the Kazakhstan pipeline to China, if only out of necessity to keep China from further encroaching on its "backyard." Similar World Views, On Most Things -------------- ¶8. (C) Despite growing rivalry in Central Asia, the academics believe China and Russia share a common "world view," including their opposition to "U.S. unilateralism." However, they were careful to emphasize that China and Russia are not engaged in any anti-U.S. or anti-Western alliance. Lu maintained that China's foreign policy is based solely on its own national interest (e.g. Lu stated that China has USD10 billion invested in Iran, so it obviously wants to prevent war) and is not necessarily against U.S. policy per se. To emphasize the point SHANGHAI 00000790 003 OF 003 that China and Russia do not agree on all international issues, Pan raised the issue of Kosovo. He speculated that China, against Russia's wishes, would establish diplomatic relations with Kosovo were it to declare independence since Taiwan would do so otherwise. However, Pan acknowledged that this would pose a conundrum for China, which fears separatist movements of its own. Regarding other "hot" international areas of concern, such as Iran and North Korea, Pan thinks China and Russia are in agreement that the issues should be resolved under the aegis of the United Nations. JARRETT