SHANGHAI STOCK MARKET: UP, UP, AND AWAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SHANGHAI 000025 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS SAN FRANCISCO FRB FOR CURRAN/GLICK/LUNG; NEW YORK FRB FOR CLARK/CRYSTAL/MOSELEY CEA FOR BLOCK USDOC FOR ITA DAS LEVINE AND OCEA/MCQUEEN TREASURY FOR OASIA - DOHNER/CUSHMAN NSC FOR KURT TONG E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN EINV CH SUBJECT: SHANGHAI STOCK MARKET: UP, UP, AND AWAY REF: A. 06 SHANGHAI 2149 ¶B. 06 SHANGHAI 5625 ¶C. 05 SHANGHAI 3800 This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified. For official use only, not for dissemination outside USG channels. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Investor confidence in the Chinese economy, the near-conclusion of the China's non-tradable reforms and large amounts of capital sitting relatively idly in savings accounts combined to push the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) into record territory during 2006. The SSE closed 130 percent higher on its last trading day of 2006 than it had opened on January 1, ¶2006. According to analysts and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) officials, these gains are sustainable and shares listed on the SSE are realistically priced. Individual investors continue to "play" the stock market, gambling on quick gains while NYSE and NASDAQ continue to pursue the SSE looking toward the day when it, possibly, demutualizes. End summary. -------------- Market Fundamentals -------------- ¶2. (U) The Shanghai Stock Exchange's (SSE) benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,675 on the last trading day of 2006, up more than 130 percent in one year. Five years of market stagnation ended midyear when the share reform process and other regulatory changes eliminated market vulnerabilities (refs A and B). Regained investor confidence, bullish sentiment on China's economic future, and trillions of dollars worth of individual savings sitting in banks earning relatively low interest combined to fuel the SSE's dramatic surge. The sixteen year-old SSE's previous high of 2,245, set in June 2001 was not eclipsed until December 14, 2006. The 130 percent gain in 2006 was even more remarkable given that the Shanghai Composite index closed below 1,000, an eight-year low, midway through 2006. ¶3. (SBU) According to SSE Head of International Affairs Li Chian, as of January 9, 2007, there were 844 companies listed on the SSE with a total market capitalization of 7.14 trillion RMB (915 billion USD). In December 2006, the market had an average daily volume of 31 billion RMB (4 billion USD) per day, and set a record of 86 billion RMB (11 billion USD) turnover on January 4, 2007. (Note: For comparison, in October 2005, per ref C, SSE total market capitalization was 2.4 trillion RMB with an average trading volume of 38 billion RMB per day. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) Li told Econoff that following the conclusion of the reform process (during which time initial public offerings (IPOs) were not permitted) last summer, there were 13 IPOs in 2006, including the record-setting Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC),which raised 19 billion USD on October 20, ¶2006. She added that the SSE expected to continue the IPO process in 2007, concentrating on "larger companies," such as ICBC and the China Life Insurance Company. China Life listed on January 9, 2007 and its shares doubled in value from 19.9 RMB per share to 38.9 RMB (4.99 USD/share). -------------- Market Growth: Liquidity Driven -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Z-Ben Advisors Principal Peter Alexander told Econoff on December 15, that the groundwork for the market's gains had been set during the previous 18 months of incremental reforms by China's regulators. These reforms, particularly the non-tradable share reforms, re-established investor confidence that had been depressed by "deep-seated structural deficiencies" such as the enormous percentage of shares that were held passively by state and other public-sector bodies. (Note: other Consulate contacts have also pointed to widely-rumored cases of insider trading and stock manipulation as factors lowering investor confidence. End note.) Earlier attempts by the state to convert these shares in 1999 and 2001 had started the long-term slide in the SSE's value. ¶6. (SBU) Alexander told Pol/Econ Chief and Econoff on December SHANGHAI 00000025 002 OF 004 13 that when it became clear that the reform process was working, investors flocked back to the markets. According to Alexander, the SSE's rapid rise in the second half of 2006 was "liquidity-driven" and he compared its rise to a similar increase in the SSE's value from 1997-98. (Note: UBS Investment Research Chief Economist for Asia Jonathan Anderson reported, on January 2, 2007, that China's stock market gains were being fueled by the more than 4.3 trillion USD worth of cash and bank deposits owned by individuals in China. The Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China made the same conclusion in a January 10, 2006 statement, noting that long term savings grew at a slower rate than previous years because: "The rebounding capital market triggered the need for more liquidity and boosted the growth of demand deposits." End note.) ¶7. (SBU) Alexander argued that many individuals with "money sitting idly in banks" looked at market gains compared to the low interest rate they were earning and then purchased stocks. This transfer of money from banks to the stock market drove the market up, encouraging more people to invest. Lombarda China Fund Management Chief Investment Officer Ian Midgley, also at the December 13 meeting, concurred with Alexander's analysis, adding that he believed that within the past six months, the China Security Regulatory Commission (CSRC) had "resolved the market's major structural issues," and averred that recent gains in market value were sustainable. Midgley pointed to the greater breadth and strength of the market, in contrast to the past when listed firms had consisted primarily of sleepy and poorly-run state owned enterprises. The companies that were listing, now, were the better banks and insurance companies, and soon would include oil companies. (Note: The SSE closed at 2808 on January 10, setting a new record high. End note) ¶8. (U) According to news reports, by the beginning of 2007, there were only 40 companies listed on the SSE and Shenzhen Stock Exchange that had not completed the non-tradable share reform process. These reports indicated that these companies were in rougher financial shape compared to those that had successfully converted their non-tradable shares and speculated that some of these 40 companies would be de-listed in the upcoming year. News reports also indicated that companies that have not finished the conversion process were not allowed to raise funds or conduct any other operations that require CSRC approval. Furthermore, these companies would be sanctioned by having the normal 10 percent per day trading band for their stocks narrowed to five percent. -------------- Investors Gambling on High Returns -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Goldman Sachs (China) Chief Representative Xiong Xiong told Econoff on December 11, 2006, that the fundamentals of the companies listed on the SSE had made a "quantum leap" in 2006. He said that the years-long reform process and depressed stock prices meant that the price to earnings (P/E) ratio of stocks listed on the SSE had declined from the "unrealistic" 50-60 range to only 10-11 times the value of the stocks. He noted that during the reform process, the value of the SSE index had halved, but that the earnings of the companies listed had doubled. This was, he said, a "very healthy development for the market." Midgley, on December 13, pointed out that P/E ratios at the SSE were now comparable to, and in some cases even lower than H shares listed on the Hong Kong exchange. This had not been the case during the last China bull market when P/E ratios averaged in the 60s. ¶10. (SBU) Despite these improved market fundamentals, Xiong said, most investors failed to do basic research and bought stocks based on word of mouth. He said that for most private individuals, stock purchasing was more "gambling" than investing. He supported his statement by telling how the last time he went to get a haircut, his barber had asked him what he know about stock "600823." Xiong asked him the name of the stock, the barber did not know. Xiong then asked him what the company did, and the barber had no idea, but that he had heard SHANGHAI 00000025 003 OF 004 from a friend it was a good deal and he was planning on buying it. Xiong said that his barber, like most investors, simply acted on the basis of rumors as to which stocks were "hot" without doing any due diligence. According to Xiong, 80 percent of stocks traded in China were owned by private individuals and twenty percent owned by institutional investors. (Note: Xiong's characterization of China's stock market investors as gamblers is consistent with almost every Consulate interlocutor on this issue. End note.) -------------- Shanghai Stock Exchange: Celebrating Quietly -------------- ¶11. (SBU) SSE Deputy Director Chao Kejian and SSE's Li Chian told Pol/Econ Chief and Econoff on December 8, 2006, that the SSE was "celebrating quietly" the revival and growth of the Shanghai's stock market. The SSE, he said, was institutionally aware that bullish markets could turn bear. Chao also noted that SSE employees were not benefiting personally from the market gains because SSE employees, their immediate families, and their parents were all forbidden by regulation to purchase stocks listed in China. The SSE, as a government institution, also had no mechanism to award bonuses for performance. Chao criticized this policy, saying that it would be far better to allow SSE employees who were not directly involved in listing companies to be allowed to trade, so long as proper public disclosure of these trades was made, as allowed at other international exchanges. While its employees are paid more than most Shanghai city employees, Chao noted, they are still far behind employees of the Hong Stock or London stock exchanges with whom he had frequent contact. According to Chao, the SSE had been considering allowing its employees to purchase shares of mutual funds, but as of January 8, this was still not allowed. Meanwhile, Chao and Li were investing in real estate. ¶12. (SBU) Another reason that the SSE was "celebrating quietly," according to Chao, was that despite the record gains, "at least half" of investors had not made any money. He noted that while the index was higher, not every stock had gone up. (Note: See paragraph 18 for a further explanation of the SSE's indexing process and a January 5, 2007 reform taken to adjust expectations. End note.) Chao was concerned that any "loud celebrations" of the gains would appear unseemly to those who were not profiting as much as the rise in index value would suggest. -------------- Reforms to Continue in 2007 -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Chao said that he expected that stock market reforms would continue in 2007. He said that he anticipated that the CSRC would widen the band, or allowable trading range, of China's "blue chip" companies from 10 percent of value to 20 percent per day. He said that this liberalization would demonstrate to Chinese investors that these companies really were major companies with sound earnings and above-average share performance. He said these companies were the ones that made of the SSE 50 list. ¶14. (SBU) Chao said that the CSRC was considering allowing certain brokerages to experiment with margin trading, as had been announced last summer. His understanding was that the CSRC would allow these brokerages to establish separate institutions to experiment and gain experience prior to opening this up to other investors. He expected that this would happen sometime in mid-2007. ¶15. (SBU) Chao told Econoff on January 8 that he believed 2007 would be a "key year" for the development of derivatives products and new trading mechanisms. He said that these products would include covered warrants and short selling. He said that announcements concerning the development of derivative products would probably come sometime after the March 2007 National People's Congress meetings in Beijing. SHANGHAI 00000025 004 OF 004 -------------- Both NYSE and NASDAQ Courting SSE -------------- ¶16. (SBU) On December 8, Chao informed Pol/Econ Chief and Econoff that the SSE had signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with 27 different stock exchanges around the world to share information and enhance cooperation. He noted that the SSE had just signed an MOU with NASDAQ. This three-part MOU would, in the short run, give SSE employees training opportunities at NASDAQ and start the process of designing a product made up of NASDAQ shares that would be traded on the SSE in future as well as another possible product based on SSE shares to be traded on NASDAQ. The third stage of the MOU discussed SSE and NASDAQ's relationship should the SSE be demutualized. ¶17. (SBU) The NYSE was also pursuing a relationship with the SSE in anticipation of its being demutualized. Chao said that NYSE Chief Executive Officer John Thain met with SSE Chairman Geng Liang on the margins of the World Federation of Exchanges meetings in Sao Paulo in October 2007 and, then again in Shanghai at the end of November 2007. Chao noted that he did not expect the SSE to be demutualized for the next five to ten years. -------------- IPOs and Indexes: Too Much Too Soon, Not Good -------------- ¶18. (SBU) SSE's Li told Econoff on January 9 that one of the reforms the SSE had already implemented in 2007 was the timing for adding a newly-listed stock to the benchmark, as had been reported in the media. She said that IPOs would no longer be listed in the SSE's benchmark indexes until their 11th trading session. According to Li, this was actually a return to a policy the SSE had in place before its "bear market period." During the bear market, the SSE started including newly-listed companies on their first day of trading in an attempt to bolster its sagging index. ¶19. (SBU) Since most Chinese stock IPOs are priced lower than their value, the massive gains in their initial value registered as large gains on the SSE composite index, Li said. She noted that the ICBC listing had actually accounted for more than 40 percent of the total 2006 gains in market value. Over the course of its recent gains, Li said, many investors had complained that despite the dramatic rise of the market, they were not making any money. These complaints resulted in the SSE's January 5 announcement that newly listed firms would not be counted until their 11th trading day. According to Li, SSE's hope was that the indexes would better reflect the entire market, rather than merely gains of individual new listings. JARRETT