CAN 300 MILLION CHINESE BELIEVERS BE WRONG?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000105 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM, DRL/IRF AND INR/EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF CH SUBJECT: CAN 300 MILLION CHINESE BELIEVERS BE WRONG? CLASSIFIED BY: Mary Tarnowka , Section Chief, Political/Economic Section , U.S. Consulate Shanghai. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: One of the authors of a new government-sponsored survey on spirituality in China downplayed the reported findings that the number of religious believers in China could be as high as 300 million. Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) Vice President Tong Shijun told Poloff in a meeting on February 13 that the survey results were premature and the results would be adjusted. One of the problems of the survey was that many individuals who identified themselves as religious were in fact believers in Communism and Confucianism. The survey was part of a three-year research project on contemporary Chinese life, which should be completed in March. Tong said the goal of the study was to provide the government with a better understanding of modern Chinese society to enable it to adjust its policies. Marxism was still relevant and only needed to be updated to meet the demands of modern Chinese society. End Summary. -------------- 300 Million Religious Believers? -------------- ¶2. (U) According to a report in the February 7 edition of the English-language China Daily, a new government-sponsored survey indicated that the number of religious believers in China was three times more than the official estimate. The survey was conducted by SASS Vice President Tong Shijun and East China Normal University Professor Liu Zhongyu as a part of a larger study on contemporary Chinese life. The professors interviewed approximately 4,500 people about their religious beliefs. Thirty-one percent of those polled said that they were religious. Of the 66 percent practiced Buddhism, Daoism or Chinese folk religions. Twelve percent said that they were Christian. It is not clear how the remaining 22 percent identified themselves. Of the religions, 62 percent were between the ages of 16 to 39, while 9.6 percent were 55 years or older. When applied to the 1.3 billion people of China, the survey results indicated that as many as 300 million people in China were religious. ¶3. (SBU) In the article, Professor Liu attributed the increase in the number of believers to the religious freedom enjoyed in China and the social problems confronting Chinese people. In a February 8 Washington Post article, Liu also pointed to the growth in Chinese population as a factor in the increase of religious adherents. The official estimate of religious believers is 100 million, which has not been adjusted since the 1960s. (Note: Despite repeated attempts, Poloff was unable to contact Liu to discuss the survey. End Note.) -------------- Adjusting the Numbers -------------- ¶4. (C) On February 13, Poloff met with Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) Vice President and Deputy Party Secretary Tong Shijun to discuss the survey. Tong oversees the entire research project on contemporary Chinese life and was involved in the survey. He downplayed the survey results and said that the 300 million figure was misleading. The figures quoted in the media were preliminary results and had yet to be analyzed by experts. The confusion came when reporters who attended a conference about the survey last October at East China Normal University misinterpreted the discussions of the survey results SHANGHAI 00000105 002 OF 003 as indicating the results had already been finalized. ¶5. (C) Academics involved in the project were now reviewing the raw data collected during the survey and would adjust the figures. The Ministry of Education also needed to review the information before it was released and would also have a chance to adjust the figures. Tong was in charge of the review process and said the final results would be released in March of this year. He personally did not believe that the final figure of religious believers in China would be 300 million. He also noted that the survey had many flaws, including asking too many questions, many of which were difficult for people to understand. ¶6. (C) Tong added that the Chinese definition of religion was also very broad. Many people in China practiced religion sporadically, visiting temples during holidays and praying to ancestors. The definition of spirituality in China also was not as strict as in the West, which emphasized being a part of an organized religious community and attending religious services. Non-religious ethical systems such as Confucianism and Communism also played roles in society similar to religious movements. For example, Tong had interviewed an elderly woman who was a member of the Communist party for the survey. When he asked the woman if she was religious, she said yes. A surprised Tong told her that she could not be religious because she was a communist. She replied that communism was a type of religion. -------------- Updating Marxism -------------- ¶7. (C) Noting that it was too early to predict what the project's conclusions would be, Tong said that the data appeared to point to two broad conclusions. First, Chinese society was becoming more pluralistic. Traditional socialism, Marxism and communism were becoming less influential as Chinese people began to adopt different belief systems. Second, religious belief had become more attractive as society became more market-oriented and life became more difficult. He said that the Chinese government had underestimated the importance of religion in the past. There was a change in the 1990's and the government was now conducting various studies on the role of religion in society. While there were extremist movements such as Falun Gong, religion was not inherently bad and could play a useful role in society. The Chinese government now realized that it needed to take religion into account as it strove to build socialism. ¶8. (C) Tong warned against over-emphasizing the role of religion and noted that non-religious ethical systems, mainly Confucianism, were still much more influential in China than religious movements. The study only showed that religion was becoming more important. Tong was not surprised that people were turning more to religion. It was very difficult to practice Confucianism since it relied on practitioners to be self-disciplined and actively engaged in improving society. Religion, on the other hand, emphasized the role of a governing deity that decided people's fate. According to Tong, believers were more concerned with the afterlife and not as involved in improving earthly society. ¶9. (C) Tong added that since China was a traditionally Confucian society it was well suited to Marxism, which also emphasized the importance of self-discipline and harmony. The Chinese government had not given up on Marxism and while some versions of Marxism were out-dated, Marxism itself was still relevant. It was important to update and adjust Marxism to fit the demands of society. The first step in this process was to better understand society. Tong hoped the project would play a SHANGHAI 00000105 003 OF 003 role in this process and provide the government with a more comprehensive picture of modern society. JARRETT