GNP PRIMARY SCHEDULE - WORKING OUT THE DETAILS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000975 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2027 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KS SUBJECT: GNP PRIMARY SCHEDULE - WORKING OUT THE DETAILS Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 19, the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) agreed to hold its presidential primary before August 21 (most likely August 19) and the number of eligible participants will be 200,000 split between senior GNP members (40,000),party members (60,000),public voters (60,000) and those representing poll results (40,000). Previously, the GNP's primary was to occur before June 22, but party officials agreed to the later date since the ruling Uri Party will not have its primary until the fall. There are still many details to be worked out, including how these primaries should be conducted. END SUMMARY -------------- NUTS AND BOLTS -------------- ¶2. (C) The first step toward finalizing the rules for the GNP primary is to establish a party election committee by early April. Next, candidates must register by mid-to-late April. After registering to participate in the primary, the candidates are not permitted to run for president with another party or even as independent candidates. A period of "candidate scrutiny" should occur in late April or May. The scrutiny committee will comprise 7-8 people from within and outside the GNP and will last for two weeks. ¶3. (C) The primary election process has yet to be worked out. It could take place over four to eight weeks in July and August, held sequentially (as in the U.S.) or simultaneously around August 19. The primary process will cost 5 billion won (about 4.8 million dollars),including the registration of electorate, polling, costs to conduct the voting and election management costs. There are strict regulations on the amount of money each candidate can raise. However, in all past elections, there have been large sums of unreported and illegal campaign fund-raising and multiple jail terms as a result. -------------- ONGOING DEBATE -------------- ¶4. (C) While representatives from both GNP front-runner Lee Myung-bak and number two Park Geun-hye told poloff that further intense negotiations remained before a final primary plan was in place, the main point of contention up for debate now is how polling or popularity will be measured and represented. Lee, with a much higher public rating, wants 40,000 votes, or 20 percent of the 200,000 total eligible to vote allocated for polling. Park, much lower in the polls, wants 20 percent of the total valid electoral votes counted. Due to inevitable irregularities, this would result in a smaller sample and give greater weight to in-party votes. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) There has been a surge in Lee Myung-bak supporters within the party as lawmakers and party members are hoping to ensure their political future by hopping on the frontrunner's bandwagon. If this trend continues, Lee, who maintains a comfortable double-digit lead in popularity polls (42.3 for Lee to 20.7 for Park in a March 28 Joongang Ilbo poll),will be the GNP nominee. VERSHBOW