LEE MYUNG-BAK: QUALIFIED, READY AND IN FIRST PLACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000472

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ABLD KS KN
SUBJECT: LEE MYUNG-BAK: QUALIFIED, READY AND IN FIRST PLACE

Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Over a one-on-one lunch with the Ambassador
on February 13, former Seoul Mayor and leading presidential
contender Lee Myung-bak explained that voters in Korea wanted
their next president to be, first and foremost, an effective
leader, not focusing on regionalism, but on policies,
especially the economy. In addition to propelling Korea to
renewed economic growth through various projects including
his cross-country canal project, Lee said he would also
improve the Korea's foreign policy. Instead of creating
policies toward the U.S. and Japan for local political
reasons, Lee pledged he would "normalize" the U.S.-ROK
relationship and improve the ROK-Japan relationship.
Economic assistance for North Korea must have limits; high
priority must be to encourage the North to open. Lee said
that the recent smear campaign against him by other
candidates (read Park Geun-hye) would likely backfire,
because he had already shown that all rumors about him were
groundless in past election campaigns. Lee confidently
predicted that as the most qualified candidate, his
popularity was not likely to falter anytime soon. End Summary

Source of Popularity?
--------------


2. (C) On February 13 former Seoul Mayor and presidential
frontrunner Lee Myung-bak told the Ambassador that his high
popularity (Note: Lee leads all other candidates by 25 points
or more in all polls. End Note) was a result of a change in
the Korean political atmosphere since 2002 when the demand
for change propelled Roh Moo-hyun to the presidency. Voters
now want an experienced, qualified leader. Lee said he polls
first with even usual progressive stalwarts, voters in their
20s and 30s, as the young are increasingly concerned with
employment and the economy. Further indication of the change
in Korea was the high ratings he receives in the Southwest
Jeolla provinces where historically GNP candidates did not
receive above five percent support (Note: Lee receives up to
36 percent support in Jeolla provinces in some polls. End
Note).


3. (C) Lee dismissed the thought that his support in the
Jeolla Provinces would evaporate because, he claimed, this
election the future of the economy would be more important
than regionalism. Lee added that as former President Kim
Dae-jung's influence has faded, regionalism has become a less
important factor in the Southwest. Lee was confident he
would continue to enjoy a high rate of support in the region
because no progressive candidates had a vision for the future.

Foreign Policy
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador, noting that Lee's main appeal clearly
came from his stance on the economy, asked whether Lee's
foreign policy also contributed to his popularity. Lee
responded that many believed President Roh Moo-hyun had
failed to uphold ROK's international status and had been
unsuccessful in managing the U.S.-ROK and Japan-ROK
relationships. Roh had failed because he had used foreign
policy for internal political reasons. Therefore, if he were
elected, Lee would work to "normalize" relations with the
U.S. and Japan. On U.S.-ROK relations, Lee said there was a
split between the old, who supported the alliance
unconditionally, and the young who wanted to redesign and
modernize the alliance. The Ambassador explained that we
had taken several steps to modernize the U.S.-ROK alliance in
recent years, such as the agreement to transfer wartime
operational control (OPCON),and to consolidate and move
bases out of city centers. Therefore, the relationship was
becoming naturally more balanced, the Ambassador emphasized.


5. (C) On Japan, Lee said that Japan was preoccupied with
domestic politics, negatively affecting its ability to
participate constructively in the Six Party Talks. Roh had
failed several times to capitalize on opportunities to
improve ROK-Japan relations; Lee would not make the same
mistakes. Lee said the ROK should cooperate with the U.S. to
help the PRC to think more constructively about the
post-unification Peninsula. The Ambassador said that the PRC
attitude toward the DPRK had changed since North Korea's
October 9 nuclear test and that while the PRC still wanted to
maintain the DPRK regime and maintain the North as a buffer,
that could change. The ROK and U.S. together had to
encourage the PRC to see the DPRK as more of a problem than
an asset, and to understand the benefits of a united,
democratic Korea.


6. (C) The ROK should continue to rely on the U.S. for
security assistance, but Lee stated the ROK should invest
more to modernize its army. Most Koreans believe the ROK has
done a poor job maintaining the military relationship, Lee
explained. While China and Russia had territorial claims on
Korea, the U.S. had no such designs and was the most reliable
alliance partner, Lee said. The Ambassador added that
broader security cooperation in NE Asia and better
coordination between the three democracies (U.S., Japan and
Korea) could encourage China to act more responsibly in the
region. Lee agreed and said the trilateral relationship
between the U.S., ROK and Japan was key to maintaining peace
and stability in NE Asia.

North Korea
--------------


7. (C) Lee said that aid to North Korea had to have limits
and that the goal of any policy toward the North should be to
steer the DPRK to open up its society to the international
community. The sole focus of North Korea policy should not
be on denuclearization, but also on opening North Korea. The
goal was to create conditions in North Korea that would
encourage Japanese and U.S. companies to invest there.
Agreeing, the Ambassador noted that we should design
assistance to North Korea in a way that created incentives
for reform. The infusion of market economy principles could
induce North Korea to reform.

Taiwan
--------------


8. (C) Lee asked what the future U.S. policy would be toward
Taiwan. The Ambassador replied that the U.S. was committed
to a one-China policy, and that unification of the PRC and
Taiwan should occur only through peaceful means. Lee said
that he was concerned that a China unified with Taiwan would
be so powerful economically and diplomatically that it would
upset the balance of power in East Asia.

Presidential Campaign
--------------


9. (C) The Ambassador asked if the negative campaigning was
getting out of control. Lee said that fellow GNP candidate
Park Geun-hye's strategy was to make a last-ditch effort to
close the gap in ratings (Lee received 49 percent support to
Park's 21 percent in the latest February 13 Joongang Ilbo
poll) before the Lunar New Year on February 18. Lee said
that if the gap does not close significantly before the
holidays, it would be difficult for Park to make up ground
later. He added that Park's supporters had gone too far in
their attacks on him and the attacks were likely to backfire.
Lee declared that he was not concerned with any files or
information that might come out.


10. (C) Lee said that Park's base of support (about 15
percent) was automatically transferred from her father's
supporters and there were only another five percent of the
voters who support her. Economically, the last 10 years have
been difficult and people want a qualified leader who can
create jobs and fix business-labor relations. In polls that
ask who is the most qualified candidate, Park always comes in
third or fourth. Lee said he was confident that the GNP
would stay together and guaranteed he would not leave the
party. While Sohn Hak-kyu (polling third behind Lee and Park
with single digit support) may leave the GNP to head a new
reformist party, Lee said this was unlikely and, in any case,
it would not affect the party.


11. (C) Lee speculated that the progressives would likely
break up into several parties with one party consisting of
core Roh supporters. The Ambassador asked if a poll
suggesting any progressive candidate would automatically get
35 percent support was correct; Lee said that 30 percent was
probably more accurate. Lee concluded by saying that this
year's election may focus be less on internal party conflict
or regionalism and more on policies. This was why he had
produced the "MB Doctrine" on foreign policy and proposed
specific projects like the cross-country canal to give people
concrete ideas of what he would do as president.
VERSHBOW