LEE SWEEPS ALL REGIONS EXCEPT JEOLLA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003578

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL PINR
SUBJECT: LEE SWEEPS ALL REGIONS EXCEPT JEOLLA


Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: December 19, Lee Myung-bak was elected
President of Korea with 48.6 percent of the vote. Second
place went to Chung Dong-young with 26.3 percent while Lee
Hoi-chang came in third with 15.1 percent. Lee Myung-bak was
the first conservative candidate since direct elections were
re-instituted in 1987 to carry the capital region, and he
received the highest ever conservative support in the
southwest Jeolla Provinces. End Summary

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Number Crunching
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2. (U) Of the over 37 million who were eligible to vote,
23.68 million or 62.9 percent voted, despite December 19

being a national holiday. It was the lowest turnout for a
direct presidential election. Boosting the number eligible,
the legal voting age was lowered from 20 to 19. Absentee
voting for Koreans overseas is not yet allowed for those
other than diplomats and soldiers, but there are plans to
expand rights for those overseas in 2008.


3. (SBU) The largest gap between Lee Myung-bak and Chung
Dong-young was in the Gyeongsang Provinces (Gyeongsang vote
totals below) and Chung received his greatest support in
Gwangju and Jeolla Provinces (Gwangju vote totals below). A
breakdown of the vote in some key regions, by percentage and
vote total:

LMB CDY LHC
Overall 48.5 26.3 15.1
(10,983,363) (5,965,798) (3,419,149)
Seoul 53.2 24.6 11.8
(2,424,927) (1,119,897) (536,053)
Gwangju 8.6 79.8 3.4
(56,875) (527,588) (22,520)
Gyeongbuk 72.6 6.8 13.7
(1,020,377) (95,422) (192,506)
Chungnam 34.3 21.1 33.2
(313,689) (192,989) (304,246)
Chungbuk 41.6 23.8 23.4
(289,453) (165,613) (162,719)
Busan 57.9 13.5 19.7
(1,018,715) (236,708) (346,319)
Gyeonggi 51.8 23.6 13.4
(2,549,399) (1,160,672) (657,767)

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Regionalism - Not Dead Yet?
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4. (SBU) While Lee Myung-bak hoped to break 10 percent in
Gwangju and Jeolla Provinces as a symbol that his candidacy
was above regionalism, he failed to do so. However, he did
receive the highest vote total ever for a conservative
candidate in the liberal stronghold. Also, Chung failed to
receive over 80 percent support in Jeolla, a region that gave
Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun over 90 percent support. Most
pundits admit that regionalism is still alive and well, but
the fact that many voters in Seoul with family ties in Jeolla
Provinces did not vote along regional lines shows that
regionalism's effect, at least in the capital region, is on
the wane.


5. (SBU) The roughly 85 percent of the vote the two
conservative candidates Lee Myung-bak and Lee Hoi-chang
received in Gyeongbuk Province showed two things: first that
regionalism is not dead and many still vote along regional
lines; and second that Park Geun-hye secured many votes for
Lee Myung-bak. When Lee Hoi-chang first entered the race in
November, he led Lee Myung-bak in polls in the most
conservative province in Korea thanks to his far-right
platform. However, once Park Geun-hye started campaigning
for Lee Myung-bak in the region in late November, support
swung from Lee Hoi-chang to Lee Myung-bak.


6. (C) Still, Lee Hoi-chang had a respectable showing at 15
percent of the total vote. Particularly impressive was his
strong showing in the Chungcheong region, coming close to
winning the province. Lee Hoi-chang is certain to inaugurate
his own political party with Chungcheong and conservative
roots, much like Kim Jong-pil did over the past twenty years.

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The Also-Rans
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7. (SBU) Independent candidate Moon Kuk-hyun garnered 5.8
percent of the vote and Democratic Labor Party (DLP)
candidate Kwon Young-ghil received just 3.0 percent. Rhee
In-je, who won 19.2 percent of the vote in 1997 after
splitting from the GNP and forming his own party, received a
meager 0.7 percent of the vote. Moon's paltry showing does
not augur well for his chances to form a party and field
competitive candidates in the April 9 National Assembly
election. He may instead choose to join forces with the
UNDP. Also, Kwon's DLP could have a difficult time
maintaining its 8 proportional seats in the assembly; a party
must receive at least 5 percent support to obtain any
proportional seats. There were a record 12 candidates in
2007 who paid the 500 million won ( 540,000 USD) to enter the
race.

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Comment
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8. (C) The 2007 election results show clear support for Lee
Myung-bak in almost every region and every age or gender
category. However, regionalism remains alive and well as
evidenced by his single-digit support in Jeolla Provinces and
enormous support for the two Lees in the Gyeongsang
Provinces. So, as before, the place of birth is by far the
most important determinant of how one will vote. Lee, as the
beloved ex-Mayor, is fortunate that Seoul voters, many of
whom have no regional roots, are now the biggest voting bloc.
This helped dilute regionalism's effect in Seoul and led to
his commanding victory.
VERSHBOW