LEE MYUNG-BAK WINS IN A LANDSLIDE

S E C R E T SEOUL 003574

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY (CLASSIFICATION)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL PINR
SUBJECT: LEE MYUNG-BAK WINS IN A LANDSLIDE

Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: On December 19 former Seoul Mayor and Grand
National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak handily won
South Korea's presidential election, ending 10 years of
liberal government in South Korea. Thanks to his landslide
victory, Lee Myung-bak now has a mandate from the public,
which expects him to enact his ambitious election promises to
revitalize the economy. However with the BBK-related scandal
unresolved and a National Assembly stacked against him until
the end of May, Lee could find his honeymoon anything but
sweet. Lee's victory was anticlimactic; most expected the
long-time frontrunner would win and this led to record-low
turnout at the polls. End Summary.

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Election Results
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2. (U) Based on exit polls and early vote counts,
conservative GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak will win with around
50 percent of the overall vote, a record high. Progressive
United New Democratic Party (UNDP) candidate Chung Dong-young
(about 25 percent) managed to overtake independent
conservative Lee Hoi-chang (about 13 percent) who held second
place in the polls for the month of November, giving
President-elect Lee an enormous margin of victory. In the
last few days, Chung, who failed in several attempts to merge
with other progressive candidates, tried to forge an anti-Lee
Myung-bak alliance -- he claimed he would even accept
ultra-conservative Lee Hoi-chang into his camp -- to foil the
frontrunner's bid. Efforts to merge failed yet again,
however, eliminating the faint hope that these "Hail Mary"
plays would tip the balance.


3. (C) Voter turnout for this year's election was about 60
percent, a historic low for open presidential elections in
Korea, down from 70.8 percent in 2002. Pollsters had
predicted lower than normal numbers at the polls for this
year's election given the lack of focus on issues and the
public's general frustration with and disinterest in the
candidates and the race in general. Also, many saw a Lee
Myung-bak victory as inevitable and instead took advantage of
the national holiday to rest rather than go to the polls.


4. (U) Lee's success was nationwide, with the exception of
Jeolla Provinces. Lee won Seoul, a first for a conservative
candidate, and the whole Han River belt -- North and South
Chungcheong Provinces, Gyeonggi Province, Seoul and Incheon.
Lee fell just short of 10 percent in the southwestern region
of Jeolla, but still recorded the highest total ever in that
liberal stronghold.

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How?
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5. (C) Lee's victory was no surprise; he had maintained a
commanding lead in polls for over a year preceding the race,
despite allegations of his involvement in the BBK fraud
scandal that could plague him well into 2008. The
prosecutors' December 5 decision to clear Lee on charges
related to the BBK case gave Lee a final boost that made his
victory in the race all but certain. Even the last-minute
revelation of a video linking Lee to BBK could not unseat
him, and, in fact, it probably helped rally many of his
supporters who saw the continued controversy as mere
political maneuvering.


6. (C) The South Korean people demonstrated a persistent
willingness to tolerate Lee's scandal-ridden past largely
because he represented a clear change from President Roh and
because of his perceived ability to tackle economic problems
-- by far the most salient campaign issue -- and his "can-do"
attitude. Voters also put a high degree of importance on
Lee's success as a businessman and as Seoul Mayor. Unlike
the other candidates, Lee was able to articulate a clearly
digestible economic plan with a "bumper sticker" slogan.
Demonstrating just how out of touch the progressives are with
the political Zeitgeist of 2007, Chung Dong-young insisted in
the December 16 debate that the economy was in good shape.

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What does it mean?
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7. (C) Lee Myung-bak has been voted into power by an
electorate that clearly wants conservative leadership after a
decade of liberal rule -- the combination of Lee Myung-bak's
and conservative rival Lee Hoi-chang's votes totals about 65
percent. South Koreans will look to Lee to quickly implement
his "7-4-7" policy, which promises to achieve 7 percent
economic growth, USD 40,000 per capita income, and to make
Korea the world's seventh largest economy. Lee's reputation
for getting things done and his conservative credentials also
stand in stark contrast with the current president, with whom
voters are fed up. Pundits and polls alike express people's
overwhelming desire for change.


8. (C) On balance, Lee's election is good for U.S.-ROK
relations. Lee, his advisers have told us, sees Korea's
relationship with the United States as the linchpin of
Korea's foreign policy. He supports extending the troop
deployment in Iraq, ratification of the KORUS FTA, and
ensuring benefits extended to North Korea are carefully
predicated on Pyongyang's denuclearization progress. While
Lee is a populist, which makes his commitment to certain
policies fungible, some contacts have pointed to his
willingness as Seoul Mayor to push through policies he
believed in despite significant opposition. Every indication
is that he believes in a strong relationship with the United
States.

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Comment
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9. (C) Despite his landslide victory, President-elect Lee
Myung-bak faces some serious political challenges during his
transition and in the early days of his presidency.
Continued investigation into the BBK scandal and the need to
get his ministers appointed by a liberal-dominated National
Assembly will occupy Lee and his team until the end of
February. Even after inauguration, Lee will be expected to
start implementing some of his campaign promises in order to
build support for the GNP before the April National Assembly
elections. To do so he must stave off internal conflict and
keep powerful party leader Park Geun-hye and her supporters
on his side. If Lee can just survive the four months
following his election and secure a respectable majority for
the GNP in April, he has the potential to enact substantial
change in South Korea.


9. (S) Lee brings to the presidency his experience in the
business sector, prior success in the political realm, and a
reputation as someone who can get things done. Couple that
with his firm belief that the U.S. is Korea's most important
ally and economic partner, and there is hope that the Lee
administration will bring about many positive developments in
our relationship. His advisers expect that Lee's strong
Christian faith and straight-talking style should make him an
easy partner for President Bush. So, while he will
definitely face bumps in the transition and early phase of
his presidency, Lee's pragmatism and underlying belief in the
importance of the alliance augurs in favor of better U.S.-ROK
relations ahead.
VERSHBOW