POLLSTERS SAY LEE MYUNG-BAK WILL WIN BIG DESPITE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003552

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL PINR
SUBJECT: POLLSTERS SAY LEE MYUNG-BAK WILL WIN BIG DESPITE
LAST-MINUTE ATTACKS


Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Two days before the Korean presidential
election and five days since the prohibition on political
polling went into place, two representatives from leading
polling firms told POL M/C and POL INT that Lee Myung-bak
would convincingly win the December 19 presidential election
but might emerge as a weak president due to various scandals
that still surround him. Mr. Hong Hyung-suk, Director of
Hangill Research polling firm, said that this year's election
was a struggle between conservatives and ultra-conservatives,
with liberal candidate Chung Dong-young out of the race from
the beginning. Ms. Hahn Gwi-young, of KSOI, a leading
polling firm, said that the election this year was about the
economy and that many people, ready for a change, would vote
for Lee Myung-bak despite his alleged role in various
financial scandals. End Summary

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Lee Myung-bak In Control
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2. (C) The two polling experts said they believed that Grand
National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak would receive
between 45 and 50 percent of the vote. Hong said it was
still possible for Lee to break 50 percent while the latest
polls showed Lee currently holding steady with about 45
percent support. While no polls have been completed since
new video footage was released December 16 in which Lee
Myung-bak said he founded BBK -- a claim he has denied
multiple times -- both Hahn and Hong said Lee's support,
rather than decreasing, had solidified in recent days and may
have even increased as a result of this last-minute attack.


3. (C) In 1992, a similar "surprise" attack emerged days
before the election as Kim Young-sam's inflammatory remarks
such as "the private sector should stir up regionalism" and
"all Gyeongsang people should drown themselves if another
candidate wins," were made public three days before the
election by Hyundai founder and candidate Chung Joo-young.
Rather than an outcry against Kim, it resulted in increased
support for the successful candidate and outcry against the
illegal wiretapping conducted by Chung. According to the
pollsters, Lee Hoi-chang was in fact the candidate that would
most suffer from this latest attack on Lee Myung-bak since
solidified conservative support for Lee Myung-bak means less
support for Lee Hoi-chang. Lee threw his hat in the ring in
large part because of suspicions that Lee Myung-bak would be
indicted for his role in the BBK scandal.

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The Rest of the Field
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4. (C) United New Democratic Party (UNDP) candidate Chung
Dong-young may have benefited two to three percentage points
from the latest attack on Lee Myung-bak and in a best case
scenario, could obtain up to 25 percent of the vote on
December 19. Hahn and Hong said Lee Hoi-chang could not beat
out UNDP candidate Chung and would come in third with about
15 percent. Moon Kuk-hyun would likely obtain between 8 and
10 percent of the vote.

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Lee Hoi-chang
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5. (C) If it weren't for Lee Hoi-chang, Hong said the
election would have been a bust for his and other polling
companies. Thanks to Lee Hoi-chang's unexpected November
entry into the race, the election regained some air of
uncertainty. While some believed initially that Lee
Hoi-chang could win, all now believed Lee would now have to
settle for third place.

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Chungcheong Province - No Longer Key Vote
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6. (C) Lee Hoi-chang, after leading Lee Myung-bak in his
home region of Chungcheong Province for the month of
November, has now fallen behind in polls and Lee Myung-bak

should carry the central region, although it was still
touch-and-go, Hong said. In previous presidential elections,
Chungcheong voters cast the deciding vote. In 1997 and 2002,
large victories for Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun in the
region delivered them the presidency. This year, since Lee
Myung-bak has such a wide lead in the capital region, home to
47 percent of the electorate, Chungcheong voters, even if
Chungcheong supported Lee Hoi-chang, this region would not be
able to influence the outcome of the election.

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Moon Kuk-hyun
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7. (C) Hahn said that Moon Kuk-hyun's support had recently
increased since he decided last week, after a series of
failed flirtations, not to join forces with UNDP candidate
Chung Dong-young. His support had dipped to about five
percent when Moon, two weeks ago, proposed a merger with
Chung, but he now stood a chance to receive up to 10 percent
of the vote. If he receives 10 percent of the vote, he will
be reimbursed 50 percent of monies he spent on the campaign,
reported to be about USD 7 million. Hong said that, while
Moon might receive 10 percent, he did not have concentrated
support in any region so he would have a difficult time
winning many seats in the April National Assembly elections,
should Moon decide to field his own candidates.

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Education and Real Estate
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8. (C) Since the GNP had claimed for 10 years that the
education and real estate policies of the Roh and Kim
Dae-jung administrations were faulty, Lee was on the hook to
propose radical changes to the current policies. While
changes were needed, education was a difficult problem and
would not likely be improved with any short-term fixes.
Also, if Lee's education or real estate policies backfired,
it could lead to unpopularity and even instability in the
economy.

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Korea-U.S. Relations
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9. (C) Mr. Hong said that relations between our the U.S. and
Korea would improve under a Lee Myung-bak presidency. While
Lee might be populist in nature and very observant of polls
and trends, he would not end the Iraq deployment or go
against the KORUS FTA if public sentiment were to turn
against such initiatives. Rather, Lee might instead push
through such plans despite opposition because he believed
that the ROK-U.S. relationship was very important. If Lee
only developed policy to match public sentiment, he never
would have accomplished so much as Seoul Mayor. Both the
transportation reorganization and the Cheonggye Stream
project were hugely unpopular when they were first proposed
but Lee pushed both these projects and now is widely
acclaimed for such successes.

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Quick Thinking Lee
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10. (C) Hong, who has closely observed elections since he
quit his teaching job at prestigious Daewon High School in
1987, said several times that Lee Myung-bak was a "nun-chi
ba-ren" person, or that Lee was quick to understand any given
situation. This was perhaps Lee's greatest trait and could
save his presidency, though Hong said he expected Lee would
overall be a weak president. While Lee might encounter
resistance in the National Assembly and may make mistakes
once he takes office, his quick thinking could allow him to
adapt and overcome the obstacles that are sure to emerge.

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Canal Project and the Economy
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11. (C) The cross-country canal project that has been the
trademark of Lee's economic platform was likely to happen,

Hong said. The proposal has come under repeated attack for
being a throwback to the 1970s when grand, national
construction projects were the rage and Lee Myung-bak, then
working for Hyundai construction, was in charge of such
projects. However, Hong said that Lee understood that
emphasizing retraining, investment, and education could grow
the economy long term, but to make people feel the economy
was in better shape quickly, people had to go to work. The
canal project was a project that could create hundreds of
thousands of jobs. Hahn said that she expected the canal
project to start in the second half of Lee's five year term
since the project could provide a quick boost to the economy.

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Comment
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12. (C) Both Hahn and Hong are sharp observers of political
and social trends and have an army of statistics to back up
their suppositions. Their claim that Lee Myung-bak's support
remains solid is credible and likely right on the mark.
While Lee's election seems certain, there remain many
questions as to what a Lee presidency will bring.


13. (C) With the UNDP controlling the National Assembly
until June 1, the brawl witnessed December 14 over the
attempted impeachment of prosecutors who cleared Lee
Myung-bak of suspicion in the BBK case could be a harbinger
of things to come. Bills that Lee supports, like the Zaytun
extension, could get caught up as the UNDP, in its last days
in power, struggles to slow "Bulldozer" Lee down. Most
Koreans are tired of such tactics, so ultimately, Lee should
be able to put many of his policies into place, but, as Hong
told us, there will likely "be no honeymoon" for Lee
Myung-bak.
VERSHBOW