UNDP-DP MERGER: DOES 13 PLUS 1.2 EQUAL VICTORY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003312 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL PINR SUBJECT: UNDP-DP MERGER: DOES 13 PLUS 1.2 EQUAL VICTORY? Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On November 12, United New Democratic Party (UNDP) candidate Chung Dong-young and Democratic Party (DP) candidate Rhee In-je announced they would merge their two parties and that a unified presidential candidate would be chosen based on two debates and the results of two rounds of public polling. The merger would be an equal combination of the two parties with the 141-legislator strong UNDP controlling half the party and the 7-legislator strong DP also controlling half. The planned November 24 merger has been pilloried in the press as a return to a pre-Uri Party (2003) regional-based party, and most note a lack of justification for the initiative. Experts see the move motivated by Lee Hoi-chang's recent candidacy and Lee's subsequent rise past Chung to second in all polls. Chung will attempt to also bring in independent candidate Moon Kuk-hyun to the new United Democratic Party (UDP). While the party has once again become a party with a southwestern regional power base as during Kim Dae-jung's leadership, it remains to be seen if the merger can increase Chung's dismal support in the crucial capital region. End Summary -------------- MECHANICS -------------- ¶2. (C) The political merger announced by the UNDP and DP will occur by November 24 after two televised debates set to occur before November 20 and two rounds of polling on November 23 and 24. Additionally, the new party will announce its "reform centrist" policy platform by November ¶19. Most expect the eventual UNDP-DP merger will likely not lead to a dramatic change in Chung's support as President Roh Moo-hyun experienced in 2002 when Roh's popularity soared from 18 percent to 43 percent overnight after his merger with independent candidate Chung Mong-joon. -------------- REACTION -------------- ¶3. (C) Pundits admit that a merger was necessary to revive Chung's campaign with his support stuck in the low teens for the last two weeks, and the resulting lopsided merger shows Chung's eagerness for any kind of political breakthrough. In a November 13 poll, Chung trailed both Lee Myung-bak (40.6 percent) and Lee Hoi-chang (18.9 percent) with only 13 percent support. Chung, highlighting his plight, said, "to win in December, we could even use help from a puppy." ¶4. (C) There were few positive reviews of the announcement -- even liberal daily Hankyoreh criticized the move as nothing more than a political move by Chung to solidify his control of the party and urged Chung to focus on reclaiming his lost liberal support base. The daily noted that extreme measures were needed for Chung to "come back from the dead" and called for Chung to announce he would not participate in the 2008 National Assembly elections -- a virtually impossible request for Chung, who many believe is already looking beyond December's election and working on his 2012 presidential campaign. ¶5. (C) Even more disheartening than the expected tepid public reaction was the less-than-welcome reception for the merger from within the liberal political camp. Former DP Chairman Chough Soon-hyung said that he would not participate in the merger. Twenty pro-Roh lawmakers complained that the merger was announced without consulting the co-chairmen of Chung's election camp and demanded a re-negotiation of the proposal to evenly merge the parties. Even Chairman of the UNDP Oh Choong-il said on November 13 that the merger should be renegotiated, while a group of party elders complained that the merger had been too hastily formulated. ¶6. (C) However, Kim Ki-bong, chief of staff to candidate Chung's spokesperson Choi Jae-cheon, told poloff that the public posturing against the merger announcement was simply necessary politicking and the merger would indeed go through as planned. Claims by pro-Roh lawmakers that the UNDP Supreme Council members were not consulted were untrue. He added that pro-Roh leaders like former PM Lee Hae-chan might not agree with the merger, but they understood why it was necessary. Also, the one-to-one merger would not carry over to how nominations would be doled out for the April National Assembly elections. Therefore, the merger, while lopsided, would not have serious political consequences beyond December. -------------- WHAT ABOUT MOON KUK-HYUN? -------------- ¶7. (C) Leading "3-8-6" UNDP lawmaker Im Jong-seok told the press that if the merger went as planned, there would be no time to merge with independent candidate Moon Kuk-hyun before the November 25-6 candidate registration period. Therefore the plan should be re-negotiated to allow Moon to participate in the merge. Meanwhile, candidate Moon Kuk-hyun has given mixed signals to Chung's camp -- sometimes calling for a single liberal candidate while other times denouncing old-style politics and claiming he could never merge under Chung's leadership. Chung's advisors have repeatedly told poloff that they hoped Moon would support Chung and add that if Moon chose not to join, he would likely not be able to play any role in the April 2008 parliament elections. Mr. Kim explained that while it was necessary to pull Rhee and the DP into Chung's camp through an official merger, Moon could support Chung without such a formal procedure if he believed Chung would support his policies. ¶8. (C) Chung went to the National Assembly on November 13 with Moon and Democratic Labor Party Candidate Kwon Young-ghil to request a special investigation into the Samsung bribery scandal (NOTE: A former Samsung lawyer accused his former employer of systematic bribery of key prosecutors. END NOTE.) Chung has joined Kwon and Moon in their informal anti-corruption union in hopes he could induce them and their supporters into his camp. While all the candidates emphasized the Samsung case was national in scope and directly related to the GNP's past corrupt practices, Kwon and Moon maintained their joint appearance with Chung did not imply they supported Chung. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Chung Dong-young's run to the Blue House is over according to everyone except his closest advisors. Merging with a candidate with 1.2 percent support (DP Candidate Rhee In-je's support in a November 13 Joongang Ilbo poll) is not the kind of dramatic move Chung needs if he is to narrow GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak's sizeable lead. Even with the entry of Lee Hoi-chang in the race, Chung is unable to motivate voters to support him. If this trend continues, the liberals will emerge soundly beaten. VERSHBOW