CANDIDATE RHEE IN-JAE: STILL RUNNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003269 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: CH KN KS PGOV PINR PREL RS SUBJECT: CANDIDATE RHEE IN-JAE: STILL RUNNING Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Over a November 2 lunch with the Ambassador, Democratic Party (DP) presidential candidate Rhee In-jae explained that if he were elected president, U.S.-ROK relations would improve, he would institute policies that encouraged reform in North Korea, and he would create many quality jobs for lower and middle class Koreans. Rhee said that his pro-U.S. stance, centrist reform policies and pragmatic approach would make life for the U.S. very comfortable. Supportive of the KORUS FTA, Rhee explained that the ROKG should provide sufficient compensation to farmers who could be adversely affected by the FTA. Noting that he was the first presidential candidate to express support for the extension of ROK's Iraq Zaytun deployment, Rhee said he would be the best alliance partner for the U.S. On North Korea, it was important to work together until North Korea had given up its nuclear arsenal, but it was also important for the international community to prevent the DPRK from undertaking a second nuclear test. While Rhee admitted GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak had a big lead, he said that most voters were still looking for a better option and he was that option. (Note: Rhee receives between 2 and 3 percent support in recent polls.) End Summary -------------- Candidate Policy Comparison -------------- ¶2. (C) Over lunch with the Ambassador on November 2, Democratic Party presidential candidate Rhee In-jae said he would stress job creation and centrist reform policies to set him apart from other candidates. The Grand National Party (GNP) was too conservative, representing the politics of the past authoritarian regimes; the United New Democratic Party (UNDP) was simply a rootless party that represented outdated liberal policies. Rhee said he would create jobs to help the middle and lower classes by emphasizing small and medium businesses and encouraging venture and high-tech business development. His policies would help the 80 percent of Koreans that were in the lower and middle classes. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador noted that UNDP Candidate Chung Dong-young was using similar 80-20 language to emphasize helping all Koreans and asked how Rhee's policies differed from Chung's. Rhee said he would lower taxes and especially corporate tax to increase productivity. Chung wanted to raise taxes to redistribute income and wealth while Rhee wanted to lower taxes to create jobs. GNP Candidate Lee Myung-bak's economic policies were good only for large chaebol conglomerates and would increase national wealth but not create quality jobs. ¶4. (C) Noting that the DP had a long history and strong regional roots, Rhee said that if each political party were a tree, the GNP would be a big tree with rotten roots and inedible fruit, the UNDP would be a tree with no roots and no fruit, and the DP would be a tree with deep, strong roots and damaged branches. With just a little sun, the DP tree could bear good fruit and win the election in December. -------------- Lee Hoi-chang: Will He Run? -------------- ¶5. (C) Political M/C asked what Rhee thought about former GNP Chairman and two-time presidential candidate Lee Hoi-chang's possible run for president. Rhee noted that only two people could be resurrected: politicians and Jesus Christ. Since Lee Hoi-chang was not dead, it would not surprise him if Lee ran. (NOTE: Rhee told reporters on November 2 that if Lee Hoi-chang ran, Lee would be a worse person than Rhee was. END NOTE) However, in 2002, Lee Hoi-chang went to the prosecutor's office to take blame for raising illegal political funds. The prosecutor's office sent Lee away because, if they had prosecuted Lee, they would have had to prosecute President Roh Moo-hyun as well. Therefore, even if Lee ran, he could run into problems for his corrupt past. -------------- Moon Kuk-hyun: Any Chance? -------------- ¶6. (C) Rhee said that support for independent candidate and former Yuhan-Kimberly President Moon Kuk-hyun was just a political breeze with no substance. People supported Moon simply out of frustration with other politicians. No one knows who Moon is -- they just know he has not been involved in politics. Moon's popularity was essentially a bubble; it would soon pop. Because he lacked political substance, Moon could not play a central role in the election, but if he wanted to join the DP, Rhee said he would welcome Moon's support. ¶7. (C) The Ambassador asked if there was a method to create a single, unified liberal candidate and Rhee said that it was possible since 40 percent of voters were against Lee Myung-bak. Therefore, people were looking for an anti-Lee candidate. These people all believed in reform so they could coalesce behind one candidate. Normally, to conduct a poll, for every 100 people called, 34 people would respond. Now, for political polls, only 15 people out of 100 responded. They are frustrated with politics and have yet to find a candidate who will provide them with hope. If such a candidate emerged, the anti-Lee forces could come together. -------------- Foreign Policy -------------- ¶8. (C) Rhee said that there were not a lot of differences between all the candidates' North Korea policies. Even GNP Candidate Lee would continue the current engagement, maybe with denuclearization as a precondition. Former Unification Minister Chung would closely follow President Roh's engagement policy. Engagement would also continue under a Rhee administration, but Rhee would not tolerate a nuclear North Korea nor continued violation of North Korean peoples' human rights. With further economic cooperation, North Korea would gain confidence that their regime would continue and implement reform. An open North Korea would naturally become nuclear-free and emphasize more respect for individuals' human rights. -------------- Iraq -------------- ¶9. (C) Rhee said he was the first presidential candidate to support the extension of the ROK's Zaytun deployment to Iraq. Since no weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq, Rhee said he had been sharply criticized for his staunch support for the mission in Iraq. However, it was important to fight terrorism. Lawmaker Lee Sang-ryul noted that the DP was initially opposed to the troop extension, but that Rhee had convinced the party to support it. While the DP and the GNP fully supported the deployment's extension, it would be difficult to pass the Assembly due to the tense political situation in the run-up to the presidential election. The Ambassador said the Zaytun deployment was important for the alliance, good for the Iraqi people, and improved Korea's global standing. Floor Leader Choi said that if Korean companies could start making money in Iraq, popular support for the deployment would dramatically increase. -------------- Six Party Talks -------------- ¶10. (C) Rhee said that North Korea should give up its nuclear program but we all had to be watchful that the DPRK did not conduct a second nuclear test while negotiating denuclearization. The Ambassador said most in the U.S. did not expect a second nuclear test, and one of the main reasons was that the U.S. and ROK were working closely together to obtain a positive result. Also, the Six Party Talks were progressing and the DPRK was receiving increased aid so they would likely not want to provoke the international community at this time. Rhee said he was neither optimistic nor pessimistic that Kim Jong-il would give up his nuclear program, but he remained suspicious of a second test since other nuclear powers had tested more than once to prove to the world they had nuclear capability. ¶11. (C) Rhee asked when the U.S. would establish diplomatic ties with North Korea and if normalization must wait until all nuclear devices were gone from North Korea. The Ambassador said there could not be normal relations between the U.S. and North Korea until North Korea had completely denuclearized. This was also true of a peace treaty to replace the Armistice Agreement: there could not be a peace treaty until North Korea gave up nuclear weapons and its nuclear program, although it was possible the negotiations for such a peace regime could commence before complete denuclearization. -------------- Beef -------------- ¶12. (C) Rhee said the issue of allowing U.S. bone-in-beef to be imported to Korea caused him a headache. The Ambassador said he hoped Rhee supported the resumption of U.S. beef imports. President Roh had promised to respect international scientific standards that have declared U.S. beef was safe; he hoped Rhee would do so as well. Rhee noted that Japan did not abide by international standards and the Ambassador said therefore, it would be a great opportunity for Korea to import beef and to be ahead of Japan. Since Korea, as an exporting nation, benefited from other nations following rules, it should also follow international norms and allow U.S. beef into Korea. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Rhee In-jae is a political survivor. After gaining over 19 percent of the popular vote in 1997, he was the frontrunner in the 2002 primary before bowing out after Roh Moo-hyun took the lead. Trailing all major candidates with low single-digit support in polls, Rhee does not have a chance to win in December. However, the very fact he is a candidate of a party (however small) makes him a player in the National Assembly elections next year. Ten years removed from the spotlight, this campaign has been a successful political rebirth for Rhee. VERSHBOW